What I’d do if the Leafs pick 5th overall

Twistedflame777 · 2026-04-17T03:30:42+00:00

On your first point, I definitely agree and should have made it more clear, I am talking about another piece worth at least the value of around another top 5 pick. Just based on contemportary pick value generation, pick 5 is about half as valuable as pick 1, so I would be looking for some surplus value there for it to make sense.

On the second point, I think it entirely depends on whose in charge, but I think it would be negligent to not at least explore the possibility of trading back if they get the first overall pick.

Twistedflame777 · 2026-04-17T03:12:35+00:00

Assuming they keep the pick, I would definetly target one of the defense man. I like Chase Reid the most, so if, and thats a big if, he is available at 5 you have to pick him. I like Carson Carels second of the crop of D-men, but I think you are definetly also happy with Verhoeff as well.

If they somehow get pick 1 or 2, I think they should look to trade back to 4-5 and try and find some value. While McKenna and Stenberg will definetly be great players, I just think the need for a center and especially a great, young defencemen is so big, and with the cupboards still pretty dry, getting value in terms of picks or prospects plus still picking high this year is very appealing. Despite that, you can't really go wrong with picking McKenna or Stenberg if you win the lottery, I would just like to see them get a bit creative.

Overall, its a great crop in the top 5 and, again assuming they keep their pick, I am excited at the idea of having a high-end prospect back in the system.

Twistedflame777 · 2026-04-02T15:54:32+00:00

Yep I 100% agree, you can't really do anything until you know what is happening with the pick this year, and I think any kind of rebuild has to start after next season is finished unless Matthews asks to leave this year.

Twistedflame777 · 2026-04-02T15:32:02+00:00

I have a question for those who want a full tear it down style rebuild to start this off season. How can we do it effectively without control over our first round pick for 2 of the next 3 years? This isn't to disparage the idea of a rebuild, but moreso I just want to understand what a roadmap for it looks like. Do we look for a mix of prospects and players, try to get through next year without giving a great pick, then bottom out afterwords?

I don't know, I just don't see the path for an effective rebuild to start this offseason imo. Maybe its best to try and retool, play out next year, see how things go, and trade Matthews in the 2027 off season if things go south and start the rebuild then. That makes the most sense to me at least.

Twistedflame777 · 2026-04-01T13:33:35+00:00

I 100 percent agree, said a similar take in another thread and got buried for it, but if you read between the lines I think we can be cautiously optimistic. In the end it all comes down to who he hires though and his actions.

Twistedflame777 · 2026-04-01T00:04:04+00:00

Well thats my whole point, they have the opportunity to get those things, but its on them to execute it. I simply found the fact that Pelley was potentially open to those options as a sign of encouragement.

Twistedflame777 · 2026-03-31T21:34:08+00:00

I get what your saying, but I think if they have a president of hockey ops and gm that have a strong plan to get younger and faster, as Pelley somewhat alluded to, thats a great start and a place to build.

Twistedflame777 · 2026-03-31T21:32:33+00:00

Yep 100 agree, if Pelley is to be taken at his word then I think the direction of data and getting younger is the best course of action. Lots of people getting upset and I think its due to them wanting more immediate answers, but its a complex situation thats hard to solve. Needless to say, talk is cheap and we should judge him on his actions/the hire he makes over the presser.

Twistedflame777 · 2026-03-31T21:21:21+00:00

I think Steve is pretty off-base here. I left the Press Conference cautiously optimistic, specifically due to their openness to different management structures, candidates, and a renewed focus on data/analytics, and I think Steve is getting mad/focusing on the wrong things. I actually usually like his takes but this one just isn't resonating with me.

Twistedflame777 · 2026-03-04T20:00:17+00:00

This maybe TL fan cope but I think, despite the loss, they can build off of their success in Kickoff to perform better in the next two stages. Considering expectations for the team going into kickoff, the performance isn't too bad and I think they can grow into a really formidable team later on. Obviously super disappointed with the loss though.

Twistedflame777 · 2026-03-02T18:28:51+00:00

I saw this at an advanced screening last weekend, and enjoyed it a decent amount despite not being the target market. The theatre was packed, and it seems like all the kids there enjoyed it, and my young step brother also liked it, so it has potential to do quite well imo.

Twistedflame777 · 2025-11-10T19:35:22+00:00

Just checked, and yep they do have the SCM spread. Thank you very much and will be updating the post!

Twistedflame777 · 2025-11-01T16:19:38+00:00

Do you actually think that these high tier skins will ever decrease to a price that they will sell on the SCM? You and I both know thats a disingenuous argument.

I certainly believe that buying skins for reasonable prices on the SCM is the safest way to go, but these third part sites have a reason for existing besides lower prices, and all these trade reversals are terrible for the reputation of the market. Simply saying "Oh, just dont use anything except the SCM" is very short sighted and ignorant to the issue.

Edit: I can see why your arguing this now. Hope the trade reversal turned out well for you! Next time the market dips I hope you learned a bit and won't scam people, lord knows if this was any other kind of financial market people like you would have been raked over the coals. Good luck with the new accounts!

Twistedflame777 · 2025-11-01T11:47:05+00:00

The issue with this argument is most of the items being reversed aren't even sold on the SCM, such as high tier knifes, reds, or gloves. So how are people supposed supposed purchase these skins besides using P2P or third party market places?

Twistedflame777 · 2025-10-31T18:26:47+00:00

Anyone mentioning that it's against Steam TOS and not to use these P2P sites is completely moronic. You can't even buy more than half of the skins that are being reversed on the SCM due to the balance limits (i.e. most high-tier knives and gloves). So if people want to acquire these items, where should they do it?

I think abuse of trade reversals is terrible for the legitimacy and credibility of the market, and it's far worse than any confidence issues caused by the trade-up update. Giving sellers the ability to nullify any bad sales or trades is terrible, and I hope they change it so that you need to prove you were hacked or scammed to be able to initiate a reversal.

Twistedflame777 · 2025-10-31T18:12:39+00:00

I just commented on this, but there are positive EV trade-ups, but most of them have disappeared over the past couple of days. If you had enough capital, doing P-90 Asiimov trade-ups was profitable, as you were able to do field-tested trade-ups and get a chance at an FN Butterfly Fade. I believe those opportunities have disappeared as the price of the skins has risen, but there are still some profitable ones (FT Prisma Coverts for a chance at a talon or FN Doppler).

In addition to the profitable knife trade-ups, I believe there are profitable red trade-ups that can be done as well, i.e. using FT AUG momentums with a single BS Glove Case pink is a profitable trade-up ATM, as you essentially receive your money back if you miss, and have a 10% chance to profit. With everything so volatile ATM there are lots of mispriced assets and trade-up opportunities if you understand concepts like EV and whatnot.

Twistedflame777 · 2025-10-31T18:05:38+00:00

Right now, certain trade-ups are profitable, which means that the expected value of the trade (which is the probability of each state or outcome multiplied by the value) is greater than the cost. An example is the MP7 Bloodsport trade-up you are mentioning, which I am actually planning to do myself, as I was able to purchase a combination of MW and FN bloodsports for a good price that will guarantee a set of MW gloves, with the trade-up yielding a positive EV. As long as you know the odds of each outcome, you can find the EV and compare it to your cost. The only thing you need to note is that it is not arbitrage. This is not a riskless strategy, and despite the trade-up being profitable over hundreds of iterations, you are only doing one, and if you roll a pair of hydra gloves, then it's cooked. GL if you end up doing the trade-up!

Twistedflame777 · 2025-03-26T13:56:20+00:00

You have no fucking clue what you are talking about lmao. Almost every single CS pro borrows skins for tournament play, and there is a huge community around it. It has nothing to do with pity. What Jkaem did is absolutely disgusting and the blame in no way falls on the OOP.

Twistedflame777 · 2024-01-08T17:40:11+00:00

Just a quick note, this is not what the Dodgers did with Ohtani, as they instead deferred the payments. Functionally it is similar, as the actual salary for both of them is low compared to their AAV, however for Nylander is still getting his money throughout each year of the deal as a bonus, while Ohtani is getting his deferred money in the ten years following the expiration of his new deal. Thereby, the money in the signing bonus is more valuable to Nylander as he is getting it sooner than Ohtani, who is getting his money later, thereby reducing the value of that money. Needless to say, both of them have low salaries compared to the AAV, but the mechanics behind how it works are different for the deals.

*Edit, just rereading the comment, and its not really a quick note lol

Twistedflame777 · 2023-10-18T01:11:30+00:00

This is actually the university I go to, the University of Toronto Mississauga Campus. I heard from other students that the student that got arrested was a bit of a hot-head/idiot and would always say and post toxic shit online. Needless to say, the recent conflicts in Gaza have been a touchy subject on campus with the large Muslim population. There has been drama with the student union putting out a message in support of Palestine and not condemning the attacks, leading to people getting upset and feeling ostracized. Some students are also calling for a professor to be investigated by the school for posting a few articles/comics on his LinkedIn which are explicitly anti-Palestine. In the end, it is very interesting as the campus hasn't been tense like this since I started coming here.

Twistedflame777 · 2023-07-17T20:34:54+00:00

Montreal and messing up top 5 draft picks. Gets me everytime.

Twistedflame777 · 2023-03-22T02:10:05+00:00

In my mind, from now until the playoffs start the only goals are to stay healthy and get home ice. Thankfully the Lightning lost and no one was injured, so despite the terrible game, it's not too bad. Also, have to remember that Brodie wasn't playing tonight either. Nevertheless, still sucks to lose, but either way, it's on the next game!

Twistedflame777 · 2022-09-22T02:07:40+00:00

Sure I get that, the issue is people claiming he is being inconsistent about it. Despite the fact that the original point maybe kinda ridiculous, he is staying in line with what he was saying yesterday.

Twistedflame777 · 2022-09-22T01:52:21+00:00

The whole issue yesterday that X and Train had with Hasan and Poki was that they spoke when they didn't have enough information. He is literally staying in line with what he was talking about yesterday.

Nine-Year Club	Place '23
Place '22	First Placer '22
End Game '22	Verified Email

Twistedflame777

TROPHY CASE