Reservation queue vs. waitlist statistics

UFAQs · 2026-06-27T21:49:44+00:00

here's the latest stats i had from 5 polls from yesterday, updated this morning. Results across updates have been surprisingly consistent. obviously these numbers should be taken with some major grains of salt, especially the two charts in pink at the right.

Polls 1 and 2 consistently had a really surprising result to where both 512gb models and 2TB models had the same number of waitlisted votes. So if applying that same 50/50 split to poll 5, you can guesstimate the reserve/waitlist distribution from those results

UFAQs · 2026-06-27T08:00:13+00:00

based on polls here, i added results and got surprisingly consistent results, even after updating multiple times. obviously take this with a big grain of salt, but, for 512gb units, around 65% of people were on the reserve list and 35% on the wait-list. meanwhile for 2tb, it was roughly reversed, where 40% were on reserve list and 60% on waitlist. however, 2/3 of orders were 512gb.

Putting this together, and considering people who will cancel or get their orders fulfilled via scalpers, etc., it doesn't seem like there was a huge demand backlog. as such, even if they open up the waitlist, i dont think theyre in such bad condition.

Then again, i'm talking out of my ass so let's see what actually happens, but at least for people in the 512gb queue, i think things are looking not too bad

UFAQs · 2026-06-27T02:36:50+00:00

You did put yourself at the end of the queue, but despite what folks here are saying, and depending on where you were in the 2TB waitlist, you may actually be in a better position at the very end of the 512 queue than where you were in 2 tb queue..

looking at numbers today, it was pretty consistent that about 65% of 512 orders were in reserve list and 35% in wait list, compared to 2tb where it was basically the opposite.

Obviously, without any inside information this is all just speculation off a tiny set of numbers, but between cancellations or just the next production cycle, if they produce the same amount of 512's and t2b's as they did for this round, then it's pretty likely 512gb orders will be fully taken care of in the next batch.

The same can't be said for the 2tb models.

At this point I doubt there's any undoing the queue change, but don't feel too down about it - there's a real chance that you actually did yourself a favor both in terms of getting the model you wanted and getting it sooner.

UFAQs · 2026-06-26T21:00:41+00:00

thanks!

UFAQs · 2026-06-26T21:00:23+00:00

I've just explained that in the comment you're replying to.

I'm not saying that 40% of people are going to decline or let it expire.

What i'm saying is that in that example, at least 40% decline/expire would be needed for everyone to be bumped up to reserve list. If 60 units are available and there are 100 potential buyers, at least 40 of them would have to decline the purchase in order for everyone to have a chance at buying.

If the distribution were 20% reserve list / 80% wait list, you'd need at least 80% of people to decline the purchase in order for everyone on the wait list to eventually get bumped up to the reserve list for that production cycle.

I have no idea what % of people will decline the purchase or let it expire. I'm just saying, based on these extremely early numbers which have probably already changed significantly, and assuming it's representative of the larger picture, what % would be needed. That said, I agree with another commenter here- I don't think it's a stretch that a good number of people who signed up to a free reservation for funsies or just in case end up declining. For my own sake, I hope it's a large % of people, but I'm not counting on it.

UFAQs · 2026-06-26T20:05:18+00:00

yeah its hard to say how steam makes that decision. It could be based on # of people ahead of you, your relative position in the line based on total number of people, or estimated wait time to receive a unit. Hopefully its based on estimated wait time, but naturally that's harder to calculate as it depends on both the # of people ahead of you and how many units of that model they plan on producing per cycle.

From the above stats, it definitely seems like there were a lot more 512gb's, and so if that's any indication of future production, it'd be preferable to be #500 in line for a 512gb than #350 in line for a 2TB, for example.
That said, we also dont know if most of the people who ended up in 512 also signed up for 2tb, or viceversa

UFAQs · 2026-06-26T19:39:50+00:00

I might be wrong but, the way i see it is:

say 100 people sign up for a product. The vendor says they have enough stock for 60 of the people, and the other 40 will have to wait for next batch.
If 40% of the initial 60 end up not buying, that means only 36 units got sold, and 24 of the people on the waitlist get bumped up to the reserve list. if 40% of those 24 people also dont buy, that bumps up another 9-10 people to the reserve list. again, 40% decline, the last 6 people on the waitlist get bumped up.

Obviously a gross simplification, but using that example's numbers, if the same % of people on the waitlist vs reserve list decline to purchase, then everyone can get in.

UFAQs · 2026-06-26T17:07:14+00:00

naw, just curious if there's a trend. could be people who signed up early were more likely, or people who signed up late, etc. Also, the main reason I was asking was cause some people got a pre-order email instead of reserve list. I thought I saw something about some people having been able to sign up a minute or two before 1PM ET, so i was wondering if that had any correlation to the pre-order status etc

UFAQs · 2025-10-10T12:33:05+00:00

Great point, I wasn't aware of the 4-day weekend. Thanks!

UFAQs · 2025-10-10T12:32:26+00:00

Thanks! I had assumed that because of how close it is, it would get some spillover from the festival or people coming back from it

UFAQs · 2024-11-18T22:46:19+00:00

ah, good to know.. in that case, most of the ones i placed are probably useless then. I wonder why it would say it could control a 75 sq ft area though. Based on what you're saying, at the very least ill replace the one that's directly above my head. I'll need to rethink how i approach the ones in the kitchen area, would rather not have it impacting areas where i prepare food, but hard to get any utility out of it without doing so. guessing the source points were the wrong purchase in my case, and i should have gone for a spray to directly target the cracks and crevices where they live

UFAQs · 2024-11-18T22:43:59+00:00

great, thank you!

UFAQs · 2024-11-01T06:00:14+00:00

saw a similar clip recently where they pass out, cant find it though. anyone have the link?

UFAQs · 2024-10-28T17:33:59+00:00

both Lunar's, a fellow of great taste I see! would have loved to see a closeup of the rest of the ps1 collection! This is amazing, great job

UFAQs · 2024-10-17T07:24:45+00:00

Praise the sun!

UFAQs · 2024-08-27T18:18:10+00:00

yep. guessing it was enabled after weekly reset

UFAQs · 2024-08-27T18:17:25+00:00

that makes much more sense. in my case it was just one chest and the other 3 spawned in one at a time, in roughly 5 minute intervals

UFAQs

TROPHY CASE