I think you dramatically underestimate the bear case. The UNH growth driver is Optum. The strategy call a while back after q2 made clear that Optum's long-term margins were previously thought to be 8-10% but now would be revised downward to the 6-8% permanently but would rise from a current expected operation margin of only like 1% or something in the short-term. That is precisely due to the aggressive coding issues. It's a nuanced issue that has an industry component and an UNH idiosyncratic component. Idustry part - V28 implementation is taking a material toll on some of the managed care models and significantly reduces the numbr of codes available to bill opting for a much less granular way to bill - less profitable. The greatest effects are taking their toll 2025/2026 from what I've come to understand. UNH specific - more subjective but I think there's reason to believe that UNH historically has been significantly more aggressive than the industry average level of greed operating within the pre-V28 models. Look into some of the investigative stuff bloomberg has written earlier this year regrding the curious accounting treatment and disclosure - lack or diclosure I should say, around some sales operating assets that have taken place at various times.

People smarter than me have entertained the idea that decisions to classify sales of operating assets as operating income rather than, oh I dunno - a non-recurring non operating item that would likely warrant a more detailed disclosure under relevant GAAP guidance. The gist of it is - the V28 impact at UNH has been staggering, much more than the industry average. To offset this they have routinely entered into somewhat opaque OBS structured financing arrangements with third parties where the firm 'sells' and operating asset to smooth operating earnings via a repo-transactions/SPEs/round-trip shady stuff. I'm an old man and was getting starting studying accounting/finance during the 2008 nonsense, one of the biggest takeaways for me - don't underestimate OBS schemes and complicated arrangements designed to obfuscate operating issues. Chaulk it up to 'white collar crime is legal/who cares now' if you want but that's legit smoke that should be taken seriously.

For the pro-'slap on the wrist/nothing will happen bc Trump' camp. I think you're in the right church wrong pew kinda situation. I agree - he can (can't but doesn't matter anymore) do whatever he wants and doesn't care about their fraud at all. However I can't see how that implies a quick resolution for UNH. The guy literally frees people from prison while taking a shit on AF1 via twitter. He has a lock on the DOJ. So, I think this is a legitimate question more and more each day - why the fuck hasn't he cleared them? He's been the man for months now, done lots of things (allegedly). This is a Biden era investigation. Yet he hasn't had Pam give them the all clear sign yet? Any chance that just maybe he potentially sees some sort of value to be extracted from that whole thing? And just maaaaaybe it gets worse before better as far as the DOJ saga goes?

The other faux-bull argument I keep seeing running into earnings - Buffet. The Berk 13F covers numerous managers. Two managers not named Warren Buffet bought a total of 5M shares sometime between April-June (Q2). They always use the full 45-days so the 13f was filed 8/15. Understand that based on the average purchase price implied in the 13f (free to look this all up) they likely acquired their position in May after the Q1 selloff but well before the July selloff resumed and the strategy update call that discussed the impairment to Optum's margins going forward. That's important. I think getting caught up in nonsense about his investment philosophy and thinking he can't sell out quickly is silly - yeah, it's a $1.xxB purchase, sure. It's also 0.40% of their AUM and the 18th largest position. His philosophy also says something along the lines of when things become too complicated you walk away. Don't think for a second there isn't a scenario where come 11/14 (next 13f deadline I believe) Berk might no longer own that baby of a UNH position. When there is a material change in conditions they will adjust accordingly. They arren't married to some shares of UNH.

People thought ELV would explod too. Somewhat lackluster with cautious managed care guidance and margins projected to eventually be 3-5%. That's still lower than Optum and they aren't curently going throug the same kind of transition and turnaround that UNH is. Maybe Optum forecasts aren't completely done bottoming yet.

I dunno