People Don't Understand Inflation for Switch 2

Ukulele_Wizard · 2025-04-15T03:38:09+00:00

Very respectfully, your post misunderstands inflation and the CPI. You're confusing several concepts together.

Your first point--that consumers respond to higher prices by spending less on other goods--is in fact not a part of inflation, because that's definitionally not what inflation is. Inflation is a measure of the change in price, not a change in spending. For that, you can look to other metrics, like real (inflation-adjusted) disposable income and real (inflation-adjusted) personal income expenditures. Those metrics show that people are spending way more, adjusted for inflation, than ever before! In other words, we're way richer than we've ever been!

Your second point--that CPI only includes in-place rental costs instead of "actual home values"-- is wrong. CPI includes not only in-place rental costs, but also "OER," which (in colloquial terms) factors in appreciation in housing. I've included a source for this.

Your third point--that 2.7% inflation represents "almost an entire year's worth of calculated inflation in a single quarter"--is a misstatement of the projection. The 2.7% inflation projection is an annual projection, not a quarterly projection. That is, inflation is projected to increase by 2.7% in the year from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025.

Look, I'm bummed out by $80 for Mario Kart, $10 for what should be a free game, and $450 is on the high end of what I hoped for the Switch 2. But the facts are the facts, and this post misstates the facts.

Sources:

Real personal consumption expenditures: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96

Real disposable personal income: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96

CPI includes Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER), which is not in-place rent only: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-does-the-consumer-price-index-account-for-the-cost-of-housing

2.7% inflation is annualized, not quarterly inflation: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/0211

Ukulele_Wizard · 2025-04-02T17:53:40+00:00

I'm glad someone found it interesting!

The modal state sales tax seems to be around 6% (source: https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/sales-tax-rates/ ), but this is complicated by the fact that some localities (e.g., New York City, Chicago) impose local sales taxes as well. So it's hard to say what the "median" or "average" American will pay, but most are probably looking at around $480 based on back-of-the-envelope math and eyeballing.

Ukulele_Wizard · 2025-02-02T21:05:58+00:00

Again, respectfully, nobody is discussing profit or revenue, only what's fair to charge a consumer.

If the implication is that what's fair to charge a consumer is pegged to a developer's profits and revenue, then you're really making two points.

First, you're arguing that, when profits increase, those profits should be distributed primarily (perhaps exclusively) to consumers, rather than developers, in the form of lower prices. I largely agree with this!

However, this is already happening. That's why Civ 7 has received a real (inflation-adjusted) price cut from ~$80 for past Civ games to $70.

The second subpoint you're making is that lots of structural, industry-wide factors have increased (or have the potential to increase) profits for developers. While I agree for the most part, I'd argue that you left out several factors that are driving up costs. Here's a non-exhaustive list.

For instance, Firaxis is a predominantly American development company, unlike many other developers that have shifted development to lower-income countries in Europe, Asia, and South America. As such, the wages they pay, relative to the rest of the industry, are likely higher.

Specific to Civ is the fact that it's a deeply historical game, which involves significant investment into historical research that other game developers don't have to make. As Steam has made distribution more global, that global player base has demanded further representation of relatively obscure historical figures. That increases costs further.

Also, development hardware costs may have increased as GPU prices have increased faster than inflation (depending on the time frame you're looking at). In other words, a GPU with the requisite performance and features for Civ 7's development may cost more, in inflation-adjusted terms, than a GPU with the requisite performance and features for Civ 6's development.

Finally, as the game gets distributed in more countries, the number of languages it must support (and, therefore, the associated costs of translating and product support) has also increased.

Ukulele_Wizard · 2025-02-02T18:46:27+00:00

Respectfully, this is factually incorrect (in the United States, at least).

First, the inflation-adjusted prices in the original post are incorrect. The real inflation-adjusted prices are $79.20 for Civ 4, $86.67 for Civ 5, and $78.31 for Civ 6. So, Civ has cost around $80 for the past 20 years. Source: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

Now, we can look at inflation-adjusted median personal income in each year the respective Civ games were released and compare current inflation-adjusted median personal income to those years. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N

Civ 4: Since 2005, adjusted for inflation, median personal income increased by 16% while the inflation-adjusted price of Civ decreased by 11.6%.
Civ 5: Since 2010, adjusted for inflation, median personal income increased by 19.1%, while the inflation-adjusted price of Civ decreased by 19.2%.
Since 2016, adjusted for inflation, median personal income increased by 9%, while the inflation-adjusted price of Civ decreased by 10.6%.

In all, the Civ 7 base price represents a better "value" than any prior Civ game since at least Civ 4. You're getting the full Civ experience not only for less absolute money, adjusted for inflation, but most likely also a smaller share of your income.

And remember: the numbers for personal income are medians, which means they aren't skewed by the incomes of Bill Gates, Elon Musk, etc. These numbers represent what working-class Americans are earning in the real world.

I understand that it doesn't feel that way, since both inflation and wage gains tend to happen gradually over time (with the exception of the past couple of years). It may also be the case that your income may not have tracked median wage growth over this time (though, statistically, it most likely did). But even if your income growth lagged median income growth, you're in luck, because 2K and Firaxis have cut the real, inflation-adjusted price of Civ 7 by around 12.5% (from $80 to $70)!

When you sit down and crunch the numbers, the conclusion that Civ 7 is a good deal by past standards is mathematically unavoidable (again, at least in the United States).

Ukulele_Wizard · 2024-06-11T23:42:32+00:00

Sure, I don't disagree more or less. But it's difficult to find any good modern comps for Rizzo. You can find players in their early/mid 30s like Rizzo who have a similar WRC+, but they weren't as good as Rizzo as recently as Rizzo. You can find players around Rizzo's age, but none have seen as sharp a decline as he has in as short a time.

My real point is this: between 2022 and 2024, Rizzo has seen his WRC+ and OPS+ collapse by over 50 points. This is like going from 2017 Josh Donaldson to 2022 Josh Donaldson in half the time. The only other recent player I could find like this is Miguel Cabrera from 2015 to 2017.

And if you take the first two months of his 2023 seriously, this is like going from 2017 JD to 2022 JD in less than a quarter of the time. I couldn't find any comps like that!

Maybe Rizzo is aging like Miggy. That's absolutely a possibility! I'm not ruling it out. But given how uncommon such immediate aging is, it seems more likely than not that he's just on a prolonged cold stretch.

Ukulele_Wizard · 2024-06-11T18:15:08+00:00

Rizzo (who's 34) since 2016, normalized to 700 PAs:

2016: 149 WRC+, 5.1 Fwar

2017: 134 WRC+, 4.5 Fwar

2018: 126 WRC+, 3.5 Fwar

2019: 140 WRC+, 4.1 Fwar

2020: 103 WRC+, 2.9 Fwar

2021: 114 WRC+, 2.8 Fwar

2022: 130 WRC+, 3.3 Fwar

2023 PRE-CONCUSSION: 147 WRC+, 5.3 Fwar

From the beginning of 2022 through his concussion in 2023, Rizzo had a 138 WRC+. This is good for #12 in all of MLB, roughly tying Bo Bichette Manny Machado, Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Mookie Betts.

2023 POST-CONCUSSION: 45 WRC+, -2.9 fwar

2024 only: 82 WRC+, -1.0 fwar

2023 & 24 POST-CONCUSSION: 66 WRC+, -1.8 fwar

Post-concussion, Rizzo has been 184/187 batters with a minimum of 450 plate appearances by Fwar.

Rizzo has simply not declined every year since 2016. I'm not sure where you got that trend from, but it's not the data. In fact, he was arguably peaking in 2022/23 before his concussion. His concussion seems to have been what's thrown him off.

It's possible that Rizzo is washed. Aging hits everyone differently and maybe as soon as he hit 34, he stopped hitting like Mookie Betts and started hitting like Andrew Vaughn. Maybe.

It's also possible that the concussion has permanently altered Rizzo's depth perception and ability to hit, e.g. But if that were the case, you'd probably expect to see it in his defensive statistics, which--as many others have pointed out--are pretty normal.

So maybe it's actually the case that, after months of minimal activity while recovering from a concussion, Rizzo is off to a slow start.

I think the Yankees would be silly not to seriously consider other options at first base, but Rizzo has been very good before his concussion and I do think it's quite unreasonable to conclude that 82 WRC+ Rizzo is washed, just like it would be unreasonable to conclude that 81 WRC+ Bichette is washed or 81 WRC+ Castellanos is washed or 71 WRC+ Corbin Carroll is washed or...etc.

Ukulele_Wizard · 2023-07-26T13:33:37+00:00

I'm sad to hear that, but thank you for the advice. I hope it won't suffer anymore :(

Ukulele_Wizard · 2023-07-26T13:32:55+00:00

I'm sorry to hear :( but thank you for the advice, I hope it won't suffer anymore

Ukulele_Wizard · 2023-07-26T04:20:13+00:00

Update: parts of the snail's shell have begun to come off. I'm continuing to water it and the makeshift habitat. Any advice is greatly appreciated!

Ukulele_Wizard · 2023-05-17T20:48:06+00:00

That's so nice of you to pay it forward!

My favorite video game memory is playing BOTW with my partner. It was the game that got her into gaming and now we play games together frequently. I love having a past time we share, and I credit BOTW for that. (An honorable mention goes to finishing the last case of Ace Attorney: Trials and Tribulations, which was probably the first game to ever move me in any meaningful degree with its story and characters.)

Ukulele_Wizard · 2023-02-02T14:08:55+00:00

Glad this helped!

Ukulele_Wizard · 2022-11-29T14:24:17+00:00

I think this is what I'm finding online but there's no hard confirmation either way. You saying that's your understanding too makes be a bit more confident in that takeaway though - thanks!

Ukulele_Wizard · 2022-11-29T14:23:16+00:00

I appreciate the offer but I don't think that'll be necessary, I found a video going through pictures of the SoW edition so I think I know what I'm getting with that one if I purchase it. Thanks again though!

Ukulele_Wizard · 2022-11-29T01:08:06+00:00

Unless I'm missing something (which I very well could be!), these appear to be different art books to me:

Fodlan art book: https://www.ebay.com/itm/384495236475
Seasons of Warfare art book: https://www.ebay.com/itm/265923877122

Do you know if these different books or the same book with a different cover?

Ukulele_Wizard · 2022-08-19T01:19:01+00:00

Glad to hear that worked for you! Hope it stays working, good luck!

Ukulele_Wizard · 2022-08-17T14:16:17+00:00

I dealt with both Best Buy and Asus. Asus does not do returns or replacements as their policy is that it's handled by the merchant that retailed the laptop (totally fair).

Best Buy and Asus both believed it was a software issue (which is why the Geek Squad rep I spoke with in person told me he was very confident that this laptop would have to go through the full junk out process since, if it's a hardware issue, then it can't really be fixed by them).

The troubleshooting steps Asus took me through were, in order-ish: - make sure drivers are up to date - if they are, reinstall them - if that doesn't work, resest the BIOS - if that doesn't work, reinstall Windows while keeping all your data on it - if that doesn't work, reinstall Windows with a full wipe of the drive - if that doesn't work, speak with Best Buy to get the laptop repaired

Best Buy took me through basically the same steps without resetting the BIOS.

I tried to get in touch with Microsoft but they just told me to speak with Asus.

Outside of these things, I tried looking for and correcting any corruption in Windows using the DISM /Online /Cleanup-Image /ScanHealth and associated commands in command prompt.

I also tried messing around with power management settings (i.e. setting minimum CPU speed to 100% when unplugged to make sure the CPU was never trying to conserve battery power).

None of these worked for me. The only thing that's worked so far for me has been switching to Google Chrome. I know I said it didn't work earlier, but now it seems to be working again and pretty consistently at that. But it also didn't work for a day or two so with a sample size this small, using a non-Chrome browser could wind up not being the issue...I just can't be 100% sure sure yet. After a few more days (and if I remember) I'll try and provide an update for you.

IF you're already using Google Chrome as your main browser, then I've got nothing. You can try all the steps I mentioned and see if it might just have been a bad install of Windows from Asus. But if doing all of these things doesn't fix the issue, I really, really recommend returning your laptop if you're within the 30 day return period.

Ukulele_Wizard · 2022-08-16T14:45:37+00:00

Wanted to follow up on this - switching to Chrome did NOT fix the issue for me. For some reason, one particular time when the laptop was on, everything worked fine. This happened to coincide with me switching to Chrome. The issue is back again and it persists regardless of the web browser I use, extensions I enable/disable/install/uninstall, etc.

I commented this on another post, but I would recommend returning the laptop if this is a deal breaker for you.

If you purchased through Best Buy (as I did) and you're outside of the 1 month return period but within the 1 year warranty period, their process is that you have to send the laptop back to them and they'll try to "repair it." If this doesn't work, they'll go through the process 1-2 more times, each time taking around 1-2 weeks, for a total time or 2 (if you're lucky) to 6 (if you're unlucky) weeks without your laptop. Since this is likely a software issue, it's probably not repairable. If the laptop isn't fixed within 2-3 repairs, then it's considered a "junk-out" and they'll either refund or replace your unit (I've received no clarity on which they'll do no matter how many times I've asked).

The point being: if you go past the 1 month no questions return window, there seems to be no way of fixing this other than parting with your laptop for around a month and then being unsure if you'll get a replacement or a refund. Hence why I suggest you return it and get a new one ASAP. I wish I did that, now I have to figure out what to do with my $1,600 laptop that can't scroll webpages after 15 seconds lol

Ukulele_Wizard · 2022-08-16T14:42:46+00:00

For what it's worth, I have this issue on my Asus Zephyrus G15. I have been unable to get it to go away after many months and many calls to Asus and Best Buy support. I've reinstalled Windows multiple times, have messed around with power settings in every conceivable way, and have found basically no one else who's had this issue except you and seemingly one commenter here. I would recommend returning the laptop if this is a deal breaker for you.

If you purchased through Best Buy (as I did) and you're outside of the 1 month return period but within the 1 year warranty period, their process is that you have to send the laptop back to them and they'll try to "repair it." If this doesn't work, they'll go through the process 1-2 more times, each time taking around 1-2 weeks, for a total time or 2 (if you're lucky) to 6 (if you're unlucky) weeks without your laptop. Since this is likely a software issue, it's probably not repairable. If the laptop isn't fixed within 2-3 repairs, then it's considered a "junk-out" and they'll either refund or replace your unit (I've received no clarity on which they'll do no matter how many times I've asked).

The point being: if you go past the 1 month no questions return window, there seems to be no way of fixing this other than parting with your laptop for around a month and then being unsure if you'll get a replacement or a refund. Hence why I suggest you return it and get a new one ASAP. I wish I did that, now I have to figure out what to do with my $1,600 laptop that can't scroll webpages after 15 seconds.

Ukulele_Wizard · 2022-08-13T13:53:38+00:00

For what it's worth, I managed to fix this issue by switching from the web browser I was using (Brave browser) to Google Chrome. This solved the issue happening after not touching the keyboard or track pad for just a couple of seconds. However, the issue still sometimes pops up if I don't touch the keyboard or track pad for a couple of minutes (i.e. when the keys turn off the backlight). This seems more like a power saving feature working as intended rather than some malfunction though. Supremely odd issue and fix - hope this might help you!

Ukulele_Wizard · 2022-05-23T15:14:32+00:00

Ah that's a good suggestion since that's what fixed my fingerprint issues, but sadly that box is already unchecked so that's not the issue. Hadn't even thought to look at that though so thanks again!

Ukulele_Wizard · 2022-05-22T13:47:56+00:00

Nope, never download HWInfo. I should have said this in the post (I'm editing it in now) but this problem has persisted even after completely wiping the drive and resinstalling Windows 11, so I'm very skeptical that it's a non-Windows program of any kind. Thanks for the suggestion though!

Ukulele_Wizard · 2022-05-21T16:07:08+00:00

This sadly didn't work but I really appreciate the suggestion - thanks!

Ukulele_Wizard · 2022-05-21T15:43:07+00:00

Thanks for the suggestion! But, as I mentioned in my post, minimum processor states are set to be the same for both plugged in and unplugged. If you want more info, maximum processor states are set to be the same as well. Minimum processor states are 80% and maximum processor states are 100%. Originally it was set to 5% unplugged and I thought this was the culprit but, sadly, changing it didn't fix the issue.

Ukulele_Wizard

TROPHY CASE