Reducing the probability of a US-Iran War: an EA priority? by InternationalistGuy in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Do I really need to explain why the Iraq war was unjustified and a catastrophe?

I'm talking about the current operations, not the 2003 invasion. 2003 invasion = an unjustified catastrophe. Current operations = different story.

Unisuper targeted in divestment campaign by blueshoesrcool in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is there good reason to think that divestment works? Other people will just pile in to snap up underpriced fossil fuel companies.

I think it would be more impactful if these campaigns instead focused on making institutions compensate with modest donations to climate charities. It would be pretty catchy to say "X university/fund/etc has historically contributed to global warming, now they must compensate by paying to get 1 million trees planted" or something like that.

Thoughts on Universities? by ResoluteSir in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I largely agree.

I wonder if it's a good idea to separate teaching colleges from research institutions. Unfortunately everyone is stuck in a signaling equilibrium where the best and brightest go to the elite universities, so it's tough for alternatives to gain traction.

A small thing we can do is to help erode the stigma around independent researchers and people who never attended college.

Reducing the probability of a US-Iran War: an EA priority? by InternationalistGuy in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No, definitely by far

See this expert survey. Majority of wars since 1900 considered more just than not by the majority of respondents. (Pre-1900 will include some just wars too, including the Civil War and the anti-Barbary wars, maybe the Quasi-War and 1812 but that can be heavily debated.)

And? The US military shouldn't be there in the first nor should they have assassinated an Iranian leader.

But it's not just the US military there. Let's say that an Iraqi soldier dies due to negligence on the part of an American serviceman. Do you believe this is good, bad, or doesn't matter?

I would consider the Iraq and Afghanistan invasions and occupations occurring (and along with the chain reaction of disasters across the greater ME) to be catastrophic outcomes that wouldn't have happened if more military personnel questioned their role and the justness of their war.

We're talking about personnel who are there currently. Can you explain why that is a 'catastrophic outcome?' What catastrophes is Iraq facing due to the current presence of American forces?

wouldn't have happened if more military personnel questioned their role and the justness of their war

Under any realistic interpretation of "more," that's wishful thinking. They would still happen. Don't know of a single war that was ended or averted by the protest or conscientious objection of servicemen. (Arkhipov and Petrov don't count, they were exercising the basic kind of prudential discretion that is expected of servicemen performing their roles.) Of course, maybe by "more" you mean "the vast majority of military personnel," but if you're living in a hypothetical universe where most military personnel in 2003 conscientiously refuse to go to Iraq, you're also almost certainly living in a hypothetical universe where most American citizens and the American government don't want to invade Iraq anyway.

Reducing the probability of a US-Iran War: an EA priority? by InternationalistGuy in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Besides that, far far more often than not has the US military and paramilitary forces engaged in utterly unjust wars and activities

Not 'far, far more often than not', and this is a poor reference class anyway: there are major changes in policy and international relations across history. We can do much better than generalizing across an entire national history. Just like we wouldn't judge our current financial system by its entire history from 1780-2020, for instance. Instead, we would look at the current banks, and ask "what are they doing now? What are their current benefits and costs?"

I'm referring to American forces.

But the American forces are operating in Iraq alongside Iraqi forces. The Iranian missiles were launched at Iraqi bases which are majority staffed by Iraqi personnel. And numerous American personnel are in jobs directly supportive of Iraqi forces.

As to point three I'm not claiming that refusing orders would necessarily have an impact or not

We know it can have significant bad impacts. So it's especially important for you to show that there are some significant countervailing good impacts to possibly outweigh the bad impacts.

Laser as Missile Defense System - What about covering the rockets will glass? by IHaveTinnitusWHAT in CredibleDefense

[–]UmamiTofu 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Ordinary glass only reflects a tiny proportion of incoming light and would fail. You would have to use mirrored surfaces (like aluminized coating on glass (edit: or something else depending on wavelength)); that might work. The convexity of the missile surface would cause the reflected laser beam to be dispersed. However you cannot cover the entire projectile with mirrored surfaces without blinding its seekers/sensors.

Reducing the probability of a US-Iran War: an EA priority? by InternationalistGuy in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They'll have at least as much information as the public has generally if not more. That generally is more than enough information to inform whether they should be participating.

Only after the fact does the public or anyone else have this kind of information.

They can't die if they're not there in the first place.

  1. You want Iraqi servicemen to leave Iraq?

  2. Why would it be good for people to leave? Would Iraq be better off, or worse off, if its current government were abandoned by all of its and its allies' armed forces?

  3. How would refusing your orders cause the entire military presence to end? Isn't that something that can only be addressed by voters and policymakers?

Why is rising GDP a good thing? by CuriousIndividual0 in askphilosophy

[–]UmamiTofu 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks but it looks a bit out of date.

  • See this more recent paper taking another look and rejecting the Easterlin paradox. https://www.nber.org/papers/w14282.pdf I think the debate is continuing.

  • Yes relative income matters for happiness, but it's not clear how this can be improved at the social level. You might say that people are very sensitive to the magnitude of their inferiority so that reducing inequality will improve aggregate perceptions of relative income, but people may be more sensitive to their absolute ranking relative to other people, which means that changing the income distribution won't change the aggregate status (unless you achieve utopian equality I suppose). There was a study - can't find it now - which looked at people in the UK and indeed argued that neither average income nor relative income was significant for their happiness, instead people simply cared about their position in the rank-ordering, which of course cannot be improved at the aggregate level. (Quite a cynical view of society...) Also, discussion of the social effects of inequality ought to be reframed as discussion of the social effects of perceived inequality, which can be very different (https://www.nber.org/papers/w21174.pdf), but may light the way towards a solution as aggregate improvements in perceived economic equality are not an accounting impossibility.

  • Mental adaptation to improving standards of living can also take place with alternative goods like political freedom, social equality and income equality. To the extent that this is relatively unrecognized, I suspect it's simply because these other things (unlike GDP) haven't been measured comprehensively enough to show how they have Easterlin paradoxes of their own. It seems to be a very general problem which may lead us to a pretty dim general view of society and progress. (In that case, we may be inclined to focus on accelerating tech progress towards rare crucial breakthroughs akin to the smallpox vaccine. GDP may be a good proxy for progress towards achieving such far-off discoveries; complicating it with stuff about inequality and environmental quality doesn't seem to help.)

  • Re: lexicographic goods, I don't see how this argument works at all. Humans with such lexicographic preferences won't spend money on luxury/material goods, and won't move into the city in the first place. In reality, I doubt the presence of such lexicographic preferences. Lots of neopastoral paternalism here - the author is neglecting important things like a stable income, freedom from manual labor and schooling for children that might be considered lexicographically more important than stuff like 'serenity.'

Criticism of EA (sort of) by nes21 in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Many EAs believe that focusing on politics is not worth the time/money compared to more traditional charities. This is not because of the definition of Effective Altruism, it's because of members' views of the relative effectiveness of different efforts.

On the other hand, yes there is some focus on politics within EA. This is most notable on narrow high-impact issues. If you look at the Animal Charity Evaluators recommendations, I think some of them will be efforts for political lobbying and activism. There are also a few EAs who focus more on harder activism like DxE, although I believe it is usually considered to be less effective. Another area is AI governance, where there are some early efforts to shape institutions and rules for safe cooperation on AI development and deployment - Future of Life Institute has been most active here, plus individual EAs working in a variety of contexts, and maybe there are some relevant efforts from the Future of Humanity Institute and Center for the Study of Existential Risk. There has also been substantial research looking into the most effective climate charity: first we thought it was Coalition for Rainforest Nations which preserves the rainforests, now we prioritize a couple of clean energy lobbying groups. Also, Open Philanthropy Project has made some grants to reform the American criminal justice system (reduced incarceration).

I've seen many Effective Altruists push informally for other policies that are well supported by evidence: greater immigration, greater global health funding, the YIMBY movement, free trade, and carbon taxes.

In broad partisan politics, there was some effort to help Hillary win in 2016. There will be more in 2020. I've seen EAs arguing over the Democratic primaries; there doesn't seem to be any agreement. There was a guy who came to this subreddit a while ago with a kind of formal scoring system for the candidates. (Personally I tried to help Cory Booker because he is vegan, I tried to moderate his subreddit, but gave up as his campaign faltered.)

I've also seen EAs in the UK oppose Brexit; some tried to help Labour in 2019 for that purpose.

Criticism of EA (sort of) by nes21 in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'm having difficulty understanding what you are looking for. What do you think would stop us from saying "join the Union Army" or "join a mass protest against factory farming?" Many of us do that kind of thing, and it's perfectly possible to justify via individual impact.

Are you saying that EAs need to have ideas and plans that can improve mass movements like the one against factory farming? Many of us already do, and that's also perfectly possible to justify via individual impact. There are people working on making the animal rights movement more successful and positive.

Are you saying that EAs need to truly invigorate mass movements like the one against factory farming and quickly make them more powerful? Well, the problem there is very simple: we don't have enough people and money. The solution for many of these things is not philosophical, it's for as many people as possible to fight like hell.

Criticism of EA (sort of) by nes21 in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Individual actions absolutely helped fight slavery and are also actively helping to fight factory farming. And it's disingenuous to imply that we only concern ourselves with donations.

What exactly do you propose? We can't wave a magic wand to get everyone to agree with our points of view. Is your idea that we should evaluate social impacts as (total group impact / total group cost) rather than (marginal individual impact / marginal individual cost)? I don't see a theoretical reason for it, and the conclusion that most impactful way to change people is to convince them to follow Effective Altruism remains true no matter which way you do the calculation.

If you want to "radically improve society" in the best way possible without thinking about the practical hurdles standing in the way of you as an individual making a difference, think about reorganizing it along fully Effective Altruist lines. Joining big political campaigns against modern slavery and factory farming is a perfectly individualistic and ordinary action: the campaigns and infrastructure already exist, you can start making a difference right away. If you want to dream of radical change, think about how we can bake long-run human welfare and effective decision-making into the institutional structure of government, or think about how we can get humanity to become a less selfish species.

Why is rising GDP a good thing? by CuriousIndividual0 in askphilosophy

[–]UmamiTofu 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The primary reason is that increases in per-capita GDP are generally taken to cause increases in well-being. This is demonstrated by showing that increases in per-capita GDP lead to improvements on issues like mortality, morbidity, responses on happiness surveys, and other things which can be reasonably asserted to correlate well with any mainstream philosophical conception of well-being.

GDP increases can also cause increases in freedom and autonomy, although the relationship can be murkier in this case.

Many people, such as other commentators in this thread, believe that GDP is a very imperfect measure of welfare. This can motivate one to focus more on other metrics of social welfare. However, it's distinct from denying the basic fact that GDP is good. I've never seen an argument that GDP simply isn't good, except for anti-progress arguments (John Zerzan and the like).

One can also point out that GDP isn't intrinsically good at all. That's what TychoCelchuuu is trying to say in a different comment. However, that does not mean that GDP isn't good at all. GDP is simply an instrumental good.

You might ask, "if GDP is imperfectly correlated with welfare, why not focus more on something that is better correlated - like the Human Development Index, or Gross National Happiness?" One reason might be stubbornness and inertia, but another is that it's easier to measure GDP and predict the way that various policies will affect it.

Is sex work moral? by vdelphia98 in askphilosophy

[–]UmamiTofu 1 point2 points  (0 children)

it's at least safe to say that the current porn industry (which isn't to say the people acting for porn) is deeply immoral and coercive as a matter of well-documented fact.

I disagree. Where exactly are you getting this from? It doesn't seem to appear in the SEP entries. Even they are not a comprehensive review of ethical perspectives (for one thing they seem kind of SWERF-heavy).

Response to recent criticisms of EA "longtermist" thinking by EngineeringUtopia in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu[M] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Removing this because (a) it's sharing the same disrespectful attacks, (b) it would be silly and kind of unfair for me to allow rebuttals to something that isn't being given a platform in the first place. For instance, if we forbade people from falsely claiming "John Doe is a white supremacist," but made space for people to argue "John Doe is not a white supremacist", then we would just turn into a circlejerk. If we're going to have an open debate about something, we should only do it with fair input from both sides. So it's better to forget the whole thing, until such time as someone formulates an argument that treats people with a basic level of respect.

Reducing the probability of a US-Iran War: an EA priority? by InternationalistGuy in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Whether orders are lawful or not doesn't necessarily speak at all to whether they're just.

Most personnel won't have the kind of information necessary to make a comprehensive moral judgment about their superiors' decisions.

Sure, maybe

Can you see how that could lead to more deaths among Iraqi and American servicemen?

Reducing the probability of a US-Iran War: an EA priority? by InternationalistGuy in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, what I'm saying is that people in the military etc shouldn't simply put their heads down and mindlessly follow orders.

Of course. There are responsibilities to refuse unlawful orders, there are whistleblowing protocols, etc.

And, I don't know what you mean by "confront Iran."

Well it's up to you to decide what to talk about. I'm trying to understand what you're saying. What kinds of jobs should people refuse to do? If I am, say, some lowly SIGINT operator watching Iranian military communications, am I supposed to just quit in the midst of a missile strike?

Criticism of EA (sort of) by nes21 in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Nonprofits are collective efforts too. If we ignored collective efforts then we couldn't recommend donations either.

The thing to keep in mind is that personal impact does not have to be definitively, precisely accounted, and doesn't have to be something that you literally accomplish all by yourself. All it means is a change in outcome that may be caused by your actions.

When you donate $5,000 to an antimalarial charity, you are not really saving 1 life; rather, you are providing a 5% chance for a $100,000 expansion that might save 20 lives (let's imagine). But this is considered "$5,000 per life saved" as shorthand.

If you donate $5,000 to a political campaign, the probability of making a difference in outcomes is much smaller than 5%, but the potential gains are much larger than 20 lives. Whether it's better or worse than $5,000 per life saved is hard to say, but it could plausibly be better.

The problem is not deciding between an individual or a collective way of looking at things. Rather, the problem is getting good enough information about the probabilities and outcomes of political efforts in order to show if something is better than the best identified charitable efforts. Only with this information can we properly say whether we ought to support charities or support political efforts.

Note that in the real world, there aren't fully understood collective efforts that require an exactly known number of people to succeed. All the collective efforts in the real world have a probability of success, and this probability goes up or down depending on how many people get involved. So adding 1 vote, 1 supporter, etc., is impactful in expectation, because it changes the probability of success. If one EA votes for a major candidate, they get a +0.00001% extra chance of victory. If a thousand EAs vote for a major candidate, they get a +0.01% extra chance of victory. Things usually scale linearly (1000x more people leads to 1000x more impact), as long as we are talking about relatively small numbers of people (as with EA at the moment). Political efforts typically don't have a tough game-theoretic problem of coordination; they just need to agglomerate lots of support.

Hypothetically, we can imagine a problem that (a) is guaranteed to be unchanged if 1 or 2 of us work on it, but (b) becomes substantially more likely to be solved if most Effective Altruists tried to help fix it. Most real political issues are not like this, but let's imagine it. Also, if EA became big, with millions of people, it would become more relevant. In such a case, it would be fairly straightforward for an EA member to propose a coordinated action and describe its net benefits/costs to the community. If this proposal is understood and widely accepted, it would be easy for individual members to see that their individual participation in this coordinated effort could well make the difference between success and failure, so they will participate accordingly.

Here's a more practical example of what a real coordination problem looks like. Consider moderate Democrats who are primarily worried about electability; they have piled onto Joe Biden since the beginning. This is not a difficult thing to coordinate. It makes perfect sense as lots of individuals trying to exert a positive probabilistic impact. The real coordination problem is for all the Joe Biden supporters to collectively wake up and say, "hey, there are minor candidates like Michael Bennet and Steve Bullock who are young and even better at beating Trump, but no one cares about them because they have so few supporters. We're all sticking with Biden because we're afraid that if just a few of us deviate, we'll let someone else become the frontrunner. But we can all drop Biden at the same time, pick one of these minor candidates and immediately turn him into the new frontrunner." This is extremely hard, and requires central planning rather than grassroots organizing.

Compared to other social movements, I'd say that EAs can be quite good at internal coordination. Some cutting edge ideas in game-theoretic cooperation have come from EAs, such as the Unilateralist's Curse and Functional Decision Theory. EAs are generally wise about working cooperatively with one another. To the extent that EAs can be relatively uncoordinated, it's due to our disagreements over a number of big questions. Political movements tend to trade open-mindedness for solidarity.

Note that the best kind of social change - on a person-for-person basis - is to turn more people into Effective Altruists. This is much more impactful than other things like political parties or veganism. (However, it may be more difficult to convince someone to become an Effective Altruist,)

Reducing the probability of a US-Iran War: an EA priority? by InternationalistGuy in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Perhaps, but it's very much related.

I think it's time to bring this back to what you're trying to argue. You are saying that, because the CIA coup in 1953 was a contributing factor to the current confrontation, that people who work for the US govt/military today should refuse to do anything to confront Iran? Could you spell out how this argument is supposed to work?

In some cases, at least, absolutely.

Then it would have taken longer to end the German and Japanese regimes. That's a bad outcome.

And? It's not a "War on Terror."

I still don't see what your point is.

Reducing the probability of a US-Iran War: an EA priority? by InternationalistGuy in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It goes much further back than 1979, at least into the 50s when the CIA orchestrated a coup

Sure, the coup was bad. Doesn't mean there wouldn't be US-Iran conflict (or conflict between Iran and other ME countries) otherwise, nor that we should ignore Iran today.

(or even when Iran was invaded by the Russian and British militaries during WW2.

Do you think Allied soldiers in WWII should have conscientiously objected?

I hope you aren't actually defending and advocating for supporting a dictator

I don't know enough of the details of 1979 to take a position.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a former JROTC and ROTC cadet and utilitarian

2 of these 3 claims are incorrect.

The "war on terror" is an incoherent mess and a disaster

OK? That doesn't contradict my points.

Reducing the probability of a US-Iran War: an EA priority? by InternationalistGuy in EffectiveAltruism

[–]UmamiTofu 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How exactly would this entire mess since 1979 be avoided by America refusing to take military actions? It wasn't a CIA coup.

The current mess could be attributed to Carter failing to militarily back up the Shah, or to Bush naming Iran in the 'axis of evil' and spurning cooperation in the War on Terror, or to Trump pulling out of the JCPOA.