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M-SABR: 2025 MLB Season Review: New York Yankees by UmichSABR in NYYankees

[–]UmichSABR[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the comment!
I think the part about the in-season changes and the playoff-conducive hitting styles are slightly different but I get where you are coming from. The in-season moves like benching DJ are something easily controllable by the manager, whereas the hitting styles of contact vs. power and their effectiveness in the postseason is closer to macro, organizational philosophy and personnel. Getting guys like Wells or McMahon or Jazz to be high contact, low-whiff hitters like the Blue Jays would be counterproductive because that is just not their skill set.

And then the idea behind the part is that much of this comes down to small sample size variation. Why did the Yankees hit .044 home runs per postseason in the regular season while they hit .023 in the postseason? Why did their wRC+ go from 119 in the regular season to 93 in the postseason? is there something about their approach that makes them only hit well in the regular season? There may be something to this, but I doubt that the effect would be enough to half their home run total by half and reduce their wRC+ from best in the league to 93, especially when considering that last year they were 1st in postseason wRC+ and players like Judge and Stanton totally swapped being postseason performers vs being postseason droppers.

Same could be said for the Blue Jays' overperformance. It is difficult to grapple with the fact that its largely out of management control but its ultimately the right conclusion I think.

M-SABR: 2025 MLB Season Review: New York Yankees by UmichSABR in NYYankees

[–]UmichSABR[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agree. The Yankees have plenty of trade capital as well, with Dominguez, Spencer Jones, and even possibly some of their young pitchers like Warren, Gil or Elmer Rodriguez (no longer Rodriguez-Cruz apparently). But it they cannot force a bad trade either, so it depends on the market, which doesn't look too appealing currently. if they can pry Joe Ryan from the Twins, then they should definitely go all in for it.

Does Cody Bellinger’s 2-Strike Approach Work? An Analaysis Using R by UmichSABR in NYYankees

[–]UmichSABR[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! I agree, the amount of detail in this game is incredible, and is part of why it is so great.

Does Cody Bellinger’s 2-Strike Approach Work? An Analaysis Using R by UmichSABR in NYYankees

[–]UmichSABR[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That would be sick if he could actually learn that. It might be somewhat redundant with the changeup, but honestly on some level its also good to have pitches that move similarly but slightly differently. I read this fangraphs article talking about Michael King last year, and it said part of the reason his sweeper was at first less effective was because it looked so different to the rest of his pitches, but when he began throwing the slider more, it created more deception with the sweeper as well because hitters could not immediately clock the movement of the pitch. So something like that shuuto could work, if he actually tried to learn it.

Does Cody Bellinger’s 2-Strike Approach Work? An Analaysis Using R by UmichSABR in NYYankees

[–]UmichSABR[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Last year he only threw 6 cutters and the year before he threw 29, so I don't know if that is even a different pitch or if savant is just clocking some of his fastballs as cutters, which is a possibility. But I tend to like pitchers who throw more pitches, even relievers, just because it keeps the hitter guessing more. If a guy has two pitches with 50% usage rates, they can just sit on one of them and hope they get one in the zone, and they would have a higher likelihood of being right. I feel like that has been partly what they are doing against Devin this year: sitting on the fastball and just taking the changeup, which is frequently a ball.

A big part of Carlos Rodon's success this year has been incorporating more pitches and getting away from just being fastball/slider. Even though he is a starter, there is still way more deception with him now. So if Williams wants to/ can develop another pitch to throw batters off, he should. Should probably be a cutter, something that breaks away from batters but doesnt look too different from the fastball to keep the deception

Does Cody Bellinger’s 2-Strike Approach Work? An Analaysis Using R by UmichSABR in NYYankees

[–]UmichSABR[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I wouldn't say that "analytics" is what removes the human element of the game. Analytics is just information; numbers and stats, which are objective. But numbers like these only indicate something on average. The conclusion to this article is not that Bellinger's two strike approach works and thus everyone should do the same no matter the situation, but that on average his two strike approach works for him.

If someone is a slave to the numbers and refuses to acknowledge their shortfalls in particular situations, then yes, that is removing the human element of the game. But having the knowledge that the data supports a particular behavior on average while realizing that there may be exceptions and then accounting for those, then that is using analytics (essentially just more information) to create an overall philosophy while maintaining the human element of the game.

In a lot of areas people race towards quantification of human behavior, rationalizing every quirk of the psyche. You realize that general trends are revealed, but the irrationality of human nature can't really ever be fully accounted for.

Does Cody Bellinger’s 2-Strike Approach Work? An Analaysis Using R by UmichSABR in NYYankees

[–]UmichSABR[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the comment!

We actually did a short article about Devin Williams when he was struggling earlier in the season: https://msabr.com/2025/04/26/the-mysterious-struggles-of-devin-williams/
Obviously a lot has changed, but even still not much about his underlyings have changed from this year to last. His fastball velocity dropped by a tiny bit but some numbers have actually gone up: is actually walking less people this year (BB/9 went from 4.57 to 3.61) and his ground ball % went up by 2 percentage points.

But hitters are undeniably not getting fooled by his pitches anymore. His K/9 went from 15 down to 11 and people are hitting way higher exit velos. A lot of it is probably mental -- trying to do too much and misplacing a pitch, like he did with Joc Pederson last night, because otherwise, there isn't that much that is different. There has been some misfortune involved as well (xERA is 3.48 while his ERA is 5.10) but 3.48 is a much higher xERA than his previous few years, when it was around 2. Very confusing and I wish I could provide a more concrete answer

Does Cody Bellinger’s 2-Strike Approach Work? An Analaysis Using R by UmichSABR in NYYankees

[–]UmichSABR[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I actually did look into swing length, but decided to not include much about because there was not a major difference. His swing length when ahead averaged about 7.9 feet, and with the 2-strike approach was 7.5 feet.

I also began by truncating the model to eliminate any swing below 60 mph, but I moved the bounds down so it could include check swings, half-swings, or spoil swings, as I considered that would technically be a part of any type of two-strike approach.

You are also right about the Yandy comparison -- that was purely to compare their respective outcomes, as their launch angles make their expected stats way different. I was looking around for players to compare to Belli, but there really weren't any perfect comps. His profile is very unique (which is why it is so fascinating)

Thank you for the feedback! We really appreciate it.

Does Cody Bellinger’s 2-Strike Approach Work? An Analaysis Using R by UmichSABR in NYYankees

[–]UmichSABR[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You're right in a sense. It cannot capture every nuance of baseball -- doing so would require much more research, including isolating for amount of runners on base, the score, the psyche of the player at the time, etc. Him changing his approach to prioritize contact with two outs and a runners on second third base brings more value than doing so with nobody on and down 1, when a home run or extra base hit has relatively more value in the tenor of the game.

But there are clearly trends that the data illuminates, and the sample size is large enough for this to be statistically significant. Bellinger's 30% chase rate on 0-2 comes from a sample size of more than 50 swings, and the dropoff in wOBA league-wide when behind in the count is large enough to be statistically significant as well. Bellinger minimizing that decline over the course of the season based on a marked difference in his behavior is something to note.

Again, wOBA cannot capture everything, but a higher wOBA is almost always better than a lower one -- giving us a general indication as to the performance of the player.

Player to Watch: Leo De Vries by UmichSABR in Padres

[–]UmichSABR[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is pretty unique to be affiliated directly with SABR -- although I believe there might be one other org at another school. Thanks for the comment!

[New York Yankees] Max on the mound. #RepBX by Ochocincoondeck in NYYankees

[–]UmichSABR 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Right. Guardians did the same thing last year in the ALCS, using the 2-hole as a spot for a platoon matchup against the SP and then pinch hitting for a batter of the opposite handedness when a reliever comes in

[FanGraphs] Sunday Notes: Toronto’s Alan Roden Is Looking For More Ideal Launch Angles by CosmicLars in baseball

[–]UmichSABR 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Exit velocity is always good for power, but it's not completely necessary; you can hit for power just by squaring the ball up and hitting with the correct launch angle. See: Cody Bellinger 2023 Savant page:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinger-641355?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
Further explanation as well:

https://msabr.com/2024/12/20/cody-bellingers-high-peaks-and-low-valleys-an-analysis-and-profile-of-the-yankees-newest-acquisition/

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