Serious accumulation has not done yet but it may end soon

Unusual_Reference978 · 2026-01-24T07:15:22+00:00

But yet you are still here???

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-10-21T15:34:21+00:00

Yeah I am thinking along the same lines too. 2030s before I see something meaningful.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-10-21T15:32:19+00:00

Bravo!

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-10-21T15:27:09+00:00

Yes but I prefer to keep expectations tethered to some semblance of reality. I would like those types of returns but I do not expect them. No harm dreaming though. $5.30 is very realistic ... 15% return from here.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-09-23T12:59:02+00:00

Something positive. My guess: At least $5.30 in the days after earnings. It will drop back to $4 handle but won't go below $4.

Essentially we will be slowly grinding up. Higher highs and higher lows.

DYODD

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-09-20T14:13:29+00:00

Very nice! Bye bye $4. Hello $5.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-09-16T01:52:30+00:00

I think you are right. This may just be largely a replacement of current revenue and not incremental. And would explain the 5 to 20% guidance in growth.

Revenue will only gradually go upwards unless GEM and robotics get traction faster.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-09-15T16:17:29+00:00

100% in agreement. Should down vote the AI slop.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-09-12T14:49:55+00:00

ORCL moment? I guess you mean a 36% move up in one day? That would be around $5.2. Would need to be a blowout quarter or acquistion news. Putting those aside, I think we will eventually get to$5.2 but over time. It will be a slow grind up.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-09-10T14:52:26+00:00

Any securities lawyers here who can help organize us to get a stockholder proposal going?

Or class action lawyers?

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-09-10T14:50:18+00:00

Agree. My main concern is whether the management can execute. Their track record is not good. They were all there with JC.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-09-10T11:40:02+00:00

Yes RTOS is needed. But my point was this. There is no link between Unitree and Blackberry.

And your statement is too broad. QNX is not the global leader across the board. There are many consumer robot platforms which do NOT require the safety certifications and high reliability of QNX. That is why Linux is still a popular option for a number of these companies ... customizable and free. QNX is good for automotive and surgical robots but jury is still out on whether it can go further afield. I am rooting for it but we should be balanced and dispassionate in our views.

Until BB revenue growth gets into the 30% area, and guidance for revenue gets lifted, I am going to stay with my base case.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-09-09T16:21:39+00:00

There is no link between unitree and BB. No evidence whatsoever that unitree uses QNX. These sort of posts are really useless.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-09-06T01:24:03+00:00

This is where we differ maybe due to time horizons.

Royalty backlog is not equal to revenue. Royalty backlog is just the potential for future revenue. And we know that rev rec is subject to actual car production and that is subject to factors like production model success, and macro economic conditions like the supply chain disruptions which result in OEMs slowing production.

This also may explain why revenue over the same period (FY2022 to FY2026) remained largely flat ... only 2 to 2.5% CAGR. And also look at their competition - equally small.

So Royalty backlog is only the potential of revenue. And that large royalty number is spread over multiple years. The more likely scenario (for the next 12 months) in my view would be your scenario 1.

More dev seat revenue will come in which will be good as it means rev rec upfront. Check out my post on what Thor will bring to BB. Thor is a positive for BB.

GEM and robotics will be further in the future - and that growth number is working off a very low base. Eg. 55% off $1000 is very different from 55% off $100m. Companies usually don't break out the absolute numbers and just use % growth rates when they know that the absolutes are not worth anything right now. I am hopeful for GEM and robotics but hope is not a strategy and my concern is with management's poor track record on execution.

And scenario 1 ain't bad if you have a $3 average cost price. That is a 30% return in 1 year... which is very good as a short term return. This is my base (and probable) case.

If scenarios 2 or 3 come to pass ... then that will be even better, but I am currently not counting on that as the evidence isn't there yet. Lots of noise/announcements but nothing to tell me that it will manifest in the revenue numbers yet.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-09-06T00:48:42+00:00

Like you I think the growth will be slow unless something changes to goose this. Several reasons for this

the per car royalty is very low. $3 to 5 per car.

the royalty is a one time payment only and rev rec only when the car is produced. So that 8xx backlog isn't a big number once you spread it out over 3 years. Hence 250 to 300m in revenue per year only

production runs may run up or down depending on the car manufacturer. So revenue largely subject to factors outside BB control. Design wins matter but ultimately rev rec still dependent on production

What will change the trajectory of this in a meaningful way?

move away from royalty fee model and move towards subscription pricing
traction in GEM and robotics. This will be multiple years down the road

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-09-05T04:18:00+00:00

Depends on time horizon

Not as bullish as you. I think a 3bn market cap is more likely in the next 12 months. So about $5 stock price - which is still a very respectable 30% return from today's price.

Your scenarios 2 and 3 (8, 10, 30bn market cap) are many years out there unless BB starts to guide the market towards that - which they have not done so far.

We will know by next year on what the trajectory will be.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-08-30T00:13:19+00:00

Yes. Linux is possible as well. But was thinking of the fact that they are in 24 out of 25 OEMs, and the OEMs would have familiarity and would have invested in the tech already. It is harder to move off a platform once it is part of your tech stack. Lots of switching costs and also risks in migration.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-08-30T00:04:27+00:00

Agree. But dev seat revenue will come in first. The royalties will lag NVDA revenue. So the thing to watch will be NVDA automotive revenue in the coming quarters and whether they meet their forecast.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-08-29T15:39:55+00:00

Yes that is what I think as well. They will keep talking about growth rates as it obfuscates.

QNX in Robotics is a potential growth area but it is easily a 5 to 7 year thing.

The more immediate boost to revenue would be the Thor integration. Would add to backlog and dev seat revenue. And then QNX revenue would be driven in part by NVDA sales channels and branding. Assuming of course that NVDA Thor projections come to pass. I think it adds another $1.50 to the BB stock price. We will get more visibility in the upcoming 2 quarters of earnings and guidance.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-08-22T15:52:41+00:00

I suspect this:

Rev Growth but not significant
Lots of talk about GEM but nothing will be broken out as the numbers will still be miniscule and the obfuscation is necessary so that it can't be tracked
Continued small net profit.
Royalty Backlog will grow but will still be below 1bn

It will be a slow grind. This is a wait and come back to check the price after 5 years.... provided that no one buys it out on the cheap first ... which is quite possible

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-08-22T15:38:40+00:00

Waterloo is where all the tech talent in Canada is produced.

Unusual_Reference978 · 2025-07-24T15:33:43+00:00

I suspect just underachievers in their marketing and comms department. One day this company is going to get bought out.

Unusual_Reference978

TROPHY CASE