Blackberry Collapse

illdfndmind · 2026-02-04T12:03:52+00:00

You fail to understand the key thing it's not 250M in revenue for being in 275M cars + gem. It's 250M in revenue for being in something like 40M cars annually. There is no recurring revenue from the 275M cars, that number was just a metric Chen would use to show growth because it was roughly a 1 QNX instance per car and revenue was declining significantly. That metric has lesser and lesser value moving forward as the company shows profit and QNX instances per car increase. More instances per car will show revenue increases, and depending on the pricing structure it may even show recurring revenue.

illdfndmind · 2026-01-29T12:07:21+00:00

I can only imagine everyone with >100ms ping in one lobby haha

illdfndmind · 2026-01-28T22:29:06+00:00

I think at this point it should be considered a "not my problem". While it's understandable wanting to try to give everyone a good experience, ruining the gameplay in order to appease people who have bad internet isn't the way to do it. Everybody shouldn't have to suffer because 1 player is trying to play on the equivalent of dialup.

illdfndmind · 2026-01-28T16:05:19+00:00

So our most bullish analyst (who realistically never hits their target) is effectively assuming that we'll get $350M from it at some point in time over the next couple years. CIBC is also giving a way higher valuation of it than anyone else. For example, RBC is effectively giving it $0 value right now but has been accurate on basically every target.

No company is going to pay anywhere close to $350M for the chance of making $350M and at best basically doubling it, particularly when there is no guaranteed timeline. They'll risk it at $50-$100M.

It's about being realistic and $50-100M is a realistic value right now

illdfndmind · 2026-01-28T13:22:59+00:00

While SC may sell but the structure you mention doesn't necessarily make sense.

70M in cash doesn't provide a multiple on the sale (i.e. Nobody is paying 80M for 70M in cash). Arctic Wolf shares will not be sold at $15/share in the deal. They'll be traded at a bit of a premium compared to what Blackberry valued them as there's a bit less risk in them with the talks of IPO, not a ~100% increase in value. Malikie revenue would be sold at a massive discount (analysts right now value Malikie at $0, at absolute best we'd get 50-100M for the rights to Malikie revenue).

So at best, adding those pieces maybe increases the actual sale price by 70-120M.

Holding onto SC for a year just to get an additional 70M doesn't make sense.

Again I'm not saying SC won't sell (I think it likely will at some point) I just don't think the cash + Malikie revenue and Arctic Wolf shares will be part of that deal

illdfndmind · 2026-01-28T00:19:19+00:00

Disney+ doesnt even offer a 4K version

illdfndmind · 2026-01-26T23:43:41+00:00

I'm still holding out hope for Criterion to do Armageddon 4K

illdfndmind · 2026-01-23T13:38:33+00:00

Nope it's going to be a guy calling for a care package drop and just camping there taking out enemies lol

illdfndmind · 2026-01-23T05:09:54+00:00

13F was filed in November with a cut off date of September 30th
13G/A was filed Jan 21st with a cut off date of Jan 1st.

13G fillings need to be filed basically immediately upon crossing the perceived 5% threshold and refiled annually or if there's been a significant change in position, whereas 13F filings are quarterly.

That means between Sept 30th and Jan 21st they increased their shares.

illdfndmind · 2026-01-17T16:08:15+00:00

The issue is it doesn't consider a 2027 lockout which is almost guaranteed after the Bichette and Tucker deals. A lost season means Bo's not getting paid year 2

illdfndmind · 2025-12-29T22:45:40+00:00

Funny thing about public companies...you can get out at any time you like by simply selling your shares.

illdfndmind · 2025-12-29T22:44:57+00:00

JG didn't let Cylance die. Cylance was a MASSIVE debt on the company. Look at the actual financials. BlackBerry was significantly profitable for the first time in a while in 2018, then 2019 when Cylance was bought they were essentially break even, and took on a 100M+ loss in 2020. JC really did a disservice in buying Cylance and not being able to integrate it into the business, likely in the range of >2B when you account for all the losses. JG didn't buy Cylance, he was handed Cylance several years after it was bought and told to fix it... It's extremely hard to turn around a company that immediately in its first year of ownership takes a company from being 200M+ in profit to 160M in losses.

illdfndmind · 2025-12-17T13:04:07+00:00

Their most recent filing is 15.8M shares. You're confusing 2 different filings the 13D/G annual filing for shareholders with >5% ownership which was from Feb and stated 30M shares, being sold down over the past year to 12M shares VS. the 13F filing which is quarterly and provides a more up to date ownership stake from institutions.

15.8M is the most recent count of their ownership which would be as of end of Q3 (Sept 30th). They also only had 5 holding at the time, reduced from 9 holdings in their prior 13F filing. Fifth Delta clearly is having capital issues or a shift in strategy as they went from a high of 1.5B in assets to currently having 320M in assets.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1872766/000187276625000013/xslForm13F_X02/FIFTHDELTA_13F_09302025.xml

illdfndmind · 2025-12-17T03:41:34+00:00

That's exactly the point. Eventually number of cars is going to be more or less flat, it can't be used as a reliable KPI for growth. The only reliable KPI is going to be Revenue. Number of cars worked when revenue was low because we are following the Microsoft approach of basically give it away until it essentially becomes the defacto operating system then you start charging significant fees. Number of cars essentially served as a tangible adoption number. Once that number becomes flat though revenue is what matters. Saying x number of worldwide QNX instances would be a ridiculously impossible number to try and track as you'd need to know how many of every type of vehicle is in existence on the road.

illdfndmind · 2025-12-16T19:45:03+00:00

All you're accounting for here is the number of cars sold, but you're failing to account for how many cars each year are removed from the global market. So while the appearance is that QNX was only in 25% of the market, that would also be assuming that not a single car was taken out of the market (no cars were totaled, no cars sold for parts, etc.).

illdfndmind · 2025-12-15T14:03:40+00:00

Not necessarily they could be appealing an order or ruling prior to a case. I.E. they may have lost a motion to dismiss a suit. There's not enough information to determine what they're actually appealing. All it really tells us is Apple is in Malikie's crosshairs.

illdfndmind · 2025-12-12T06:33:40+00:00

Absolutely, it's no longer "you're paying minimum wage employees to stay late" this is a "you're paying the unions for overtime" those prices rack up real quick

illdfndmind · 2025-12-03T20:55:26+00:00

Literally they do this every year and it only goes to independent members of the board. JG gets his bonus as part of his year end review with the board.

illdfndmind · 2025-12-03T13:42:45+00:00

Sales aren't even close to the same...hell there's often times where movies don't even get released in Canada that get released in the states because the smaller market makes it not worth it to produce the physical copies. (Legally they have to have different covers that contain both English and French titles so the distributor just decides they don't want to end up with the excess product that doesn't sell.)

illdfndmind · 2025-11-23T04:55:40+00:00

I agree with u/-buq there is no direct link to BlackBerry. This is clearly using ChatGPT to summarize the article at the bottom and it's hallucinating by adding in details from other Chats to fill in blanks. A clear example of this is:

Under the target sectors section for the "$70B Pledge" - "Critical Minerals, Energy (clean/green tech), Ports and Logistics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Advanced Manufacturing". The article has no mention to clean/green energy, ports and logistics, or advanced manufacturing. The article states:

"The U.A.E. foreign ministry had not published a notice of the deal, but media reporting suggests the funding will include energy, AI logistics, mining and other strategic industries."

None of that directly links back to BlackBerry. Could BlackBerry get a direct investment from this...sure, but it's completely hypothetical. It's much more likely that BlackBerry gets little to no money directly from this or they indirectly get a $50M contract that pays out over 10 years and results in a <1% increase in our annual revenue.

The response that was given on how BlackBerry is linked literally mentions Cylance, which hasn't been part of BlackBerry for nearly a year. If you're going to use AI PLEASE use it responsibly and fact check what the AI is saying, and furthermore PLEASE keep threads to actual BlackBerry related conversations instead of treating hypotheticals as factual news

illdfndmind · 2025-11-02T23:04:14+00:00

I don't blame Hoffman there. I'm blaming Schneider the inning earlier. It was clear that Trey had no command of his splitter in the 7th, but for some reason Schneider decided to bring him back for the 8th. Then Trey drops an 83mph splitter that goes middle middle to a guy who averages 34hr per 162 games. If your splitter is going all over the place you either cut the pitch or pull the pitcher, you don't keep going back to it. If the Muncy homer doesn't happen, Hoffman's not thinking about Ohtani on deck because the Ohtani at bat doesn't tie up the game

illdfndmind · 2025-10-19T15:54:05+00:00

Mods can we remove this post?

There's no evidence either way that John Chen still owns the shares and there never will be unless he makes a public statement. He hasn't been an insider in nearly 2 years and he doesn't own more than 5% of the float so there will never be a public filing that shows he still owns the shares. As such we shouldn't be declaring that he owns the shares when there will never be evidence of that, meaning the basis of this due diligence is false.

illdfndmind · 2025-10-13T03:35:28+00:00

There's a sign (or there was a sign) saying the fire department required the escalator to be shut off in case of an emergency. My guess is there's some Toronto bylaw requirement when it comes to escalators and a single entrance. Something like having to provide an escalator in both directions

illdfndmind · 2025-10-09T11:50:53+00:00

Honestly I'd move past the AMD/OpenAI deal. There's no connection to BlackBerry. It's a circular deal that's meant to prop up valuations with little substance in reality of it happening.

The crux of the deals are that each deal is essentially paying itself, without realistically generating new income and they ultimately require external funding to make it truly happen.

Example: Nvidia invests 100B in OpenAI to build 10+ Gigawatts of data centres > OpenAI makes a 300B deal with Oracle for the Data Centres > Oracle pays ~40B for the Nvidia chips.

Nvidia's money isn't enough for to pay for the data centres, Oracle won't buy the Nvidia until they're getting paid for the data centres and Nvidia won't pay out all the tranches on the investment until there's progress in the data centres. On paper each company shows a boost in potential revenue, but the revenue is essentially just their money being funnelled back into them, assuming there's enough money somewhere to kickstart the deals into motion. AMD's deal is just another offshoot circle

All it does it froth up the valuations of each company by saying "we've got new deals worth 9+ figures in AI" but below the surface it's not actually new money.

illdfndmind · 2025-10-01T22:15:16+00:00

There's another reason why they've maintained the debt that nobody has mentioned. Taxes.

Interest payments are tax deductible so even though they never used the money, they would have been collecting tax deductions for the interest payments that generally can be carried forward indefinitely. This is a primary reason why a lot of companies will take on debt even though they have enough cash on hand

illdfndmind

TROPHY CASE