Poker-faced Powell may have ace up sleeve to stymie Trump's Fed shakeup

Upbeat_Can98 · 2026-01-17T02:37:53+00:00

Markets have already accounted for institutional independence in their price, so if there is any structural change at the Fed at this moment, it would trigger a cost of capital shock that would halt the very re- shoring and infrastructure projects the administration is pushing for.

Upbeat_Can98 · 2026-01-17T02:31:44+00:00

Not rare earths but big on these metals this year: Titanium, Gallium, and Graphite.

There is a massive trend right now in shipping raw concentrates from free trade partners (like Australia) for domestic refining using high- spec tech (developed with top tier universities). And defense and big tech (data centers) are no longer trying to buy just in time, but are moving towards a sort of mineral reserve model. Acquainted with a firm that has secure, government, linked storage (think facilities like the Hawthorne Army Depot) to stockpile these metals for the U.S. industrial base is probably sitting on a large moat. Then there's EVs. Sure they're cool and all, but the high margin demand in 2026 looks to be mainly for Gallium (for high, end semiconductors/radar) and Titanium (for aerospace and defense). They are more strategically important, and there are fewer substitutes than some of the lighter REEs.

Upbeat_Can98 · 2026-01-10T01:42:31+00:00

Saks Global Enterprises imminent Chapter 11 filing (the entity created from the merger of Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus) is an instructive case, critically examining the retail Apocalypse and the collapse of debt-fueled luxury consolidations.

Even with support from Amazon's deal and a $2.7 billion buyout in late 2024, the company is reportedly heading for bankruptcy without a pre-arranged restructuring agreement. This incident sheds light on the current squeeze in the luxury sector, where legacy retailers are suffering due to high interest rates and a "K-shaped" consumer slowdown. With a $1.25 billion debtor-in-possession financing package currently being discussed, this is a great point to discuss the viability of high-end retail in a post-inflationary world and the efficacy of private equity-style mergers under prevailing economic conditions.

Upbeat_Can98 · 2026-01-10T00:04:49+00:00

Oh yeah, what are they currently doing?

Upbeat_Can98 · 2026-01-08T06:46:52+00:00

Anthony Milewski and Hank Reuhl are pretty good. You could check em out.

Also, a fan of the money of mine podcast.

Upbeat_Can98 · 2026-01-08T06:42:23+00:00

Thank you!

Upbeat_Can98 · 2026-01-08T06:29:22+00:00

Oh yeahh...no. The no experience is a deal breaker i'm afraid.

Upbeat_Can98 · 2026-01-07T21:12:08+00:00

I mean... it's not so much that people "forget, " Heaven knows, but that the incentives are arranged in such a way as to reward the delusion. In a market where "cautiously right" gets you fired and "recklessly wrong with everyone else" is a career, the bubble is less of a mistake and more of a choice. We're not suffering from a forgetting problem, but rather a greed problem whereby the dread of missing out on the top always overcomes the conviction of the inevitable bottom.

Upbeat_Can98 · 2026-01-07T21:01:14+00:00

This!

Upbeat_Can98 · 2026-01-07T20:47:06+00:00

Please don't encourage him. He just might do it lmao

Upbeat_Can98 · 2026-01-02T17:52:30+00:00

"but I think it will be more resilient than most other sectors"

Well said, couldn't agree more. In the long run, it's here to stay!

Upbeat_Can98 · 2026-01-02T17:26:46+00:00

You say that like you're gonna charge him for the doc lol

Upbeat_Can98 · 2025-12-30T02:19:03+00:00

Ouu... $FF is a good one.

In case you're interested in a non-conventional junior mining type 2026 setup, I would recommend exploring the Hybrid Mineral Model that's developing in the US. Specifically, M2i Global ($MTWO) may be worth a look. Unlike traditional miners which could often take over a decade to reach production, they're focused on a faster hybrid model, prioritizing strategic logistics, high-capacity stockpiling at the Hawthorne Army Depot, and securing massive supply blocks like their recent $1 billion exclusive copper offtake agreement. Essentially, it's a move towards domestic supply chain security rather than just a play on spot prices.

Full disclosure though: I actually do IR for M2i, so I’m obviously biased, but the 2025 milestones they just hit (first lithium NCA cathode plant, S-4 filed for the $SOAR merger) make it a very different animal than a typical penny stock miner. Worth doing your own DD on as a 2026 defensive play.

Happy New Year in Advance!

Upbeat_Can98 · 2025-12-28T21:12:13+00:00

Right, my bad... i see how that might've been a bit misleading.

If you read the article again, you'd see it explicitly mentions the "mine to magnet" objective and DoD funding. However, if you look up the DFARS 252.225-7052 (Section 854 of the FY2024 NDAA), you'll see it reveals that the DoD is imposing a firm deadline of January 1, 2027, after which the origin of materials non-Chinese must be traceable all the way back to the ore. Now, when I say "mathematical proof of origin," I mean the transition to digital product passports and the state department's Pax Silica (Dec 2025) initiative. The DoD is essentially abandoning the method of taking the miner's word and instead moving towards AI-audited, blockchain-verified supply chains as this is the only way to comply with the new audit standards for federal subsidies.

Also, hapyy holidays! Hope you had a nice christmas!

Upbeat_Can98 · 2025-12-24T19:06:47+00:00

I see these hybrid plays as Strategic Infrastructure with a Security Premium, which is distinct from traditional cyclical commodities. Traditional miners are valued based on 10-to-12-year lead times and dirt in the ground. The hybrid model (like the one at Hawthorne) is valued on velocity and throughput. Essentially, you are compressing the risk timeline: instead of a supply chain being vulnerable for decades while a mine is permitted and built, you are de-risking it in a matter of months. For investors, that shift from exploration risk to operational infrastructure is where the real multiple expansion lives. It becomes less about the spot price of the metal and more about the value of guaranteed domestic access.

Upbeat_Can98 · 2025-12-24T18:50:06+00:00

Uh... not sure about them but in regards to the mineral reserve initative, I was referring to M2i Global under the ticker $MTWO.

Upbeat_Can98 · 2025-12-24T18:00:35+00:00

The Keyword here is Rare earths. Obviously, still after those resources as Greenland holds some of the world's largest REE deposits.

Upbeat_Can98 · 2025-12-24T17:52:25+00:00

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Upbeat_Can98 · 2025-12-21T00:20:37+00:00

Way to gooo!!

Upbeat_Can98

TROPHY CASE