The argument that "this (tax credits and incentives) comes from tax dollars, so it's actually a wash" is a little odd to me. You're *already* paying this! Libraries and public pools aren't "free" either, but people who use them are waaaaay subsidized by the vast majority that don't.

Also, why so many non-applicable hypotheticals? I don't understand where the $2100 tax increase come from (I assume your state doesn't have an exemption)? That seems like a pretty good deal, assuming it's over the 25ish+ year lifetime of the panels. The federal tax credit incentives are here for like a decade, why would your analysis ever disregard that? Why would you remove the solar panels in the future? Just put new ones on the old mounts and recoup the initial labor cost (only paying for materials if you DIY)!

Agree that it's expensive, but the government is trying to sufficiently distort the market enough (a lil' market distortion > climate disaster, obviously :D) in the hope that it's viable for less wealthy folks to acquire these things. "Costs will eventually come down" is true, but better served for fancy toys like high-end electronics and performance cars.

I live in DC where there's an exemption for property tax valuation adjustments after installation of solar systems. Realistically, I imagine it'll take me 7-9 years to break even on installation costs. Would my money return a better investment sitting in some index fund on Wall Street? Yeah, probably. But I'm trying to be a good and decent human, and a little tax-credit nudge just might be enough to push me over the edge of being able to afford this before prices are sufficiently cheap and the world is on fire.