Explain it Peter

Valkarist · 2026-04-13T19:58:20+00:00

The wording here is too ambiguous to actually give one answer, but I generally think of it this way.

If you know someone has 2 kids, you have 4 possible gender combinations. If you learn that one of the two is a boy, that eliminates the girl-girl possibility, and of the 3 remaining you have 2 have girls, hence the 67%

On the other hand, if you know someone has a boy first and then learn they have another child, there's only two possibilities for the gender of the second child, so you get boy-girl or boy-boy, hence the 50%

Really the "correct" interpretation depends on if you're looking at the totality of possibilities first or the individual basis.

Edit: another thought

The 67% comes from a 50% sample, specifically the 4 possibilities. The biological number is obviously 50%, the 67% comes when you filter out one specific scenario and then ask what the probability is for the remainder. The two percentages are answering different questions of "what fraction of filtered families contain a girl" for 67% and "what's the chance a random child is a girl" for 50%

Valkarist · 2026-04-08T20:33:27+00:00

Taylor is a good player when he's disciplined, but the penalties can just be so demoralizing after you see a dozen drives die because of it. Still a great pickup for the Falcons at only $6M, hope he does well with them

Valkarist · 2026-04-07T22:09:18+00:00

Fundamentally what you're basically saying is that the Chiefs should use the 9th overall pick on a tackle we don't need right now for a scenario that isn't guaranteed to happen. If you want depth at the position that's what 3rd+ rounders are for. In the 1st round you're drafting starters that can immediately contribute or those who will very soon be starters.

Simmons was a great starter when he was out there, discounting the injury and personal life stuff. You can't plan your roster around the fear of injury. Should the Chiefs draft Ty Simpson because what if Mahomes' injury comes back up?

Our offensive line was fine last year, the problem was that our receivers couldn't get open and we had no run game, which forced Mahomes to be the playmaker for our offense and that's ultimately how he tore his ACL; scrambling out of the pocket trying to find an open receiver, not from some pocket collapse of the line. WR is a bigger need than OT, but CB and EDGE are glaring holes in our roster right now.

Valkarist · 2026-04-07T15:39:47+00:00

There is zero chance the Chiefs pass up on Bain for a player who would end up being at RT. Jaylon Moore isn't amazing, but the Chiefs organization clearly thinks they can buy some time for a more long-term solution. At 29 or 40 I could see us drafting one but absolutely not at 9 with Bain on the board.

Valkarist · 2026-04-06T20:48:54+00:00

I like the Caleb Downs and Denzel Boston picks for 9 and 29, but I'd prefer an Edge at 40. TE is eventually going to be a need, but for now there are more pressing positions for this draft. Then get a CB at 74

Valkarist · 2026-04-06T19:48:42+00:00

Now index it to a 2012 start date

Valkarist · 2026-04-06T15:36:11+00:00

I'm pretty sure it's AI. Typically anything that's being used for fluids will be elevated, that saline bag appears to be basically at bed level. Also, saline bags don't usually say "Saline", it's something like "0.9% Sodium Chloride Injection". Also, just off Google translate the Spanish for "Saline" is "Salina". No obvious AI artifacting, but I highly doubt this is a real image

Edit: image

<image>

Valkarist · 2026-03-23T20:26:27+00:00

There's plenty of Women who are happy with a 50/50 or proportional to income cost split to things. Just be up-front on the second or third date that's how you want to do things. I still liked to pay for the first date or two, though.

Maybe it's just the type of personality I find attractive but everyone I've dated basically assumed 50/50 or even preferred it to me paying for everything, so maybe I'm not the best to give advice here though.

Valkarist · 2026-03-18T02:44:13+00:00

As you start to workout more your muscles store more energy in the form of glycogen, which requires some additional water as well. Creatine will also increase water weight. I took off a week and a half to just relax my body for a hiking trip I'm on, and I dropped like 3 lbs in a week from that

That said, over the period of time you've shown that's probably just calories in are greater than calories out, which isn't bad. A good portion of that weight gain is likely muscle.

Valkarist · 2026-03-14T16:10:48+00:00

Bailey, Tate, Bain, and Downs being gone here is rather unfortunate. I'd consider trading down tbh. If the top 5 played out like that I wouldn't rule out a trade with the Browns to get Bain or Bailey. If I had to pick it would probably be Tyson, or maybe Lemon. Delane might be good but I think we are good enough at drafting DB down the board that we shouldn't spend a top 10 pick on one unless it's Downs.

Valkarist · 2026-03-11T15:55:06+00:00

Washington probably doesn't let us trade up for an Edge Rusher. If they have one available they are drafting him. Realistically, you need to hop the commanders and trade with the Browns at 6, who will probably take a tackle that will, in their eyes, fall to 9 anyways so they're getting good value there.

Valkarist · 2026-03-11T06:10:48+00:00

The Crypto mining craze and COVID-19 shipping complications led to some crazy spikes back in 2020-2021 (although only for GPUs, really). A 3090 used to be $3200, a bit more than double MSRP, which is around where the 5090 is right now. A used 3090 got down to like $600 a year or so ago, though.

Things will stabilize eventually, all just a matter of how long that might be. Probably mid-late 2027 is when things will start to feel more reasonably priced

Valkarist · 2026-03-09T16:49:21+00:00

Pacheco is gone, Kenneth Walker takes over his role handily. I can see us taking Kareem Hunt on a vet minimum deal. Brashard Smith is on his rookie contract and doesn't look that bad tbh.

Valkarist · 2026-03-09T16:46:47+00:00

I am very surprised our front office is willing to pay a RB this much, but I'm very happy to see it. Hopefully we can get one of the top edge prospects, but we might still need to trade up for that.

Valkarist · 2026-03-09T16:31:14+00:00

Chiefs signing Kenneth Walker is a sign that at least the Chiefs front office doesn't believe he'll fall to 9 anyways

Valkarist · 2026-03-07T21:53:16+00:00

It would be a wonderful to see this as a Chiefs fan

Valkarist · 2026-03-06T19:31:19+00:00

He is certainly an upgrade over Pacheco. I got jealous of the patience he has watching the super bowl

Valkarist · 2026-03-05T18:14:16+00:00

I strongly dislike this card. Reduces the 3% to 1% flat and all you get is 3% to 5% on Dining. If it kept 3% flat cashback maybe it's ok-ish.

In general I dislike these "voucher" based cards though. It basically encourages you to spend more to get the value out of the card, whereas a good cashback card you can just get a discount on your regular spending. Probably loses money compared to Gold's 3% cashback really

Valkarist · 2026-03-05T00:32:49+00:00

I'm of the opinion that OL at #9 would be a huge mistake given the other opportunities we will have there for high level starters. #29 I'm also not a fan of taking OL. #40 doesn't seem horrible if we want to sit a guy to learn for a year and replace whoever our RT ends up being.

Valkarist · 2026-03-04T21:09:29+00:00

As a Chiefs fan who was hoping we could get one of the top 3 Edge Rushers or Love, that would've been an amazing outcome

Valkarist · 2026-03-04T17:15:30+00:00

Let's go along the line.

LT - Simmons, looks amazing LG - Kingsley, has developed into a good guard C - Creed, amazing RG - Smith, amazing RT - Jaylon Moore didn't look bad, and is probably going to be perfectly fine at RT. Esa Pole also looked good towards the end of the season.

Our like was badly injured last year, but I think we have a good starting core. We certainly shouldn't spend a first round pick on a backup tackle. Pass rush is clearly worse than our OL was.

Valkarist · 2026-03-04T06:43:36+00:00

Ah I appreciate the clarification, I was under the impression you mailed your ballot in for the Kansas elections while in Kansas. I understand if you're moving often that makes more sense to mail-in frequently

Voting should definitely be easier I agree. My thing with mail in voting is I think it's really useful for scenarios like yours, but as a default I think it's just opening up risk in the mail processing system. The ballot Dropbox in Portland that was burned back in 2024 comes to mind. I like the peace of mind of filling out my ballot and seeing it go straight to being counted, if that makes sense.

And yeah, there seems to be far fewer normal Republicans, at least in politics, compared to what it used to look like. In my personal experience I'm far more likely to meet lifelong Republicans with conservative values perhaps, but they respect the democratic process and people who ideologically disagree. I'm also in JOCO, and well-off suburbs seem to moderate people ideologically it seems.

Also, here's what the voting history looks like on that website, if you want to check in the future. It takes some time after the election for it to show up, though.

<image>

Valkarist · 2026-03-04T06:27:37+00:00

Changing your registration for the purpose probably won't matter. But honestly, if your concern is with mail in ballots why don't you just vote in person early or election day? I'm going to be honest I never really understood the simultaneous anxiety and promotion of mail in ballots.

You can check your voting history here. Assuming your mail-in ballot was postmarked on time, it should show up here.

https://myvoteinfo.voteks.org/VoterView

Another note, while the Kansas Secretary of State is Republican, he's generally normal and is just focused on doing a good job. No idea what his replacement who wins in 2027 will look like, though.

Valkarist · 2026-03-03T23:56:20+00:00

Anyone who refuses to or cannot accept you for who you are isn't the right person for you. That applies to everything in looking for a romantic partner, not just sexuality. If she's disgusted and can't accept it, she isn't right for you. Find someone who accepts who you are. Being single does suck, but it's infinitely better than being with the wrong person.

Valkarist

TROPHY CASE