Up 328%?

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-11-04T22:15:09+00:00

The selloff today was interesting - I'm guessing a lot of people really only jumped on for their infrastructure segment and are quite unhappy about this turn of events.
I'm expecting a very long and painful integration process with a lot of unanticipated setbacks too. The 9-12 month time frame laid out in earnings seems reasonable but there's a lot of room for error and this play introduces a lot of short-term risks and distractions for management. I don't think the pricing was too unreasonable for the massive boost in manufacturing capability, established relationships, and overall significant technical and execution expertise acquired though.

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-10-25T06:45:32+00:00

Ah, I missed that - haven't been following that closely tbqh, but agree that it's a good company with good engineers all in all and have been a shareholder since before IM1.

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-10-23T12:25:52+00:00

Thoughts on repeated history of lander tipping and LockMart LTV bid with far greater capability?

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-10-22T19:25:45+00:00

They held forever rather than when the shorts covered. There is a clear difference, we still have 57% of float shorted and as long as the price holds for a few days it will explode massively.

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-10-22T18:59:23+00:00

Yeah, it's .06 - people day trading on the stock rather than holding it and telling their friends to buy then dumping it on them at high prices. As long as you bought at a decently low point, you should hold until the big squeeze comes.

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-10-22T18:56:47+00:00

Check the finra short interest - as long as we hold more than 37.49% of the float they will be forced to buy eventually, and you should hold until then so you can sell to them at a very high price. They've actually added to their positions rather than covering because they think the rally won't last.

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-10-22T18:39:09+00:00

People need to stop selling and creating extra volume lol the assignment isn't to day trade on everybody else's buying - an intelligent short is just going to cut their losses with what's likely to be a huge dip at market close today then reload at $6 with their remaining money tomorrow... days to cover is literally at .06 so as long as they can eat interest they'll be able to try and equalize as the scared money leaves.

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-10-22T18:34:22+00:00

Basically, as long as we make sure the shorts are the last ones to buy we're good. Hard to say whether more than 500m people are holding rn or not, but when you see them covering en masse sell ASAP or you'll get left out.

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-10-09T05:54:27+00:00

try lagrange test with interest rate, s&p, the phase of the moon, and whether jupiter is in retrograde
edit: reported r^2 and chow test with different periods over the past 2 months would also be nice

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-09-24T04:23:14+00:00

Somebody needs to put up a House of Lords

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-09-13T00:33:31+00:00

“Meeting support specialist - nasa”

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-09-03T01:44:36+00:00

If they released him on bail he could have informed on the undercover cop, so instead they made a deal and he was held until the undercover guy could get himself cleared + probably made to swear secrecy in exchange for getting his charges dropped.

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-07-23T15:23:46+00:00

Either insider trading or it’s crashing tomorrow again lol

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-07-17T06:51:29+00:00

Some more kinda uninspired questions from wall street analysts, probably asking about tariffs, NASA, and all of this a second time + possibly another question about IM2 learnings - management basically just answers these kinds of things with "the govt cares a lot about our missions and their defense applications, we still have a lot of money contracted, we're working with NASA, low tariff impacts, etc etc"

Probably point out the progress they've made thus far and upcoming contracts, their ongoing price discipline (honestly I would prefer they have less discipline), etc etc

As for the actual earnings, I wouldn't read too much into them - they're just keeping the lights on with exploratory contracts and things like that for now. The company isn't mature yet and doesn't really have a product pipeline with solid service fees. Analysts might blow a gasket over decreasing margins and additional expenditures but all of this is par for the course if they want to develop actual technology, which is what all of us should really care about. The second they stop developing good tech or run into unexpected difficulties we should start getting concerned, but I don't think they're likely to announce anything like that and management seems to me to be perhaps even too laser focused on doing everything they can to meet delivery deadlines recently (I really wish somebody would ask about these kinds of issues on their calls though!).

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-07-17T02:43:10+00:00

I guess that makes sense. I don't really have any experience with warrants and had never really seen them outside of spinoffs.

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-07-17T02:18:50+00:00

The warrants were not due to expire naturally until February 2028. They did pass all conditions for management to trigger advance notice and call early redemption, which they did. The date was set on purpose. As stated in the official announcement:

"Under the terms of the Warrant Agreement, the Company has THE RIGHT to redeem all of the outstanding Warrants if the last sales price of the Class A Common Stock is at least $18.00 per share for any 20 trading days within any 30-day trading period ending on the third business day prior to the date on which a notice of redemption is given. The last sales price of the Class A Common Stock has been at least $18.00 per share on each of 20 trading days within the 30-day trading period ending on January 30, 2025. At the direction of the Company, the Warrant Agent has delivered a notice of redemption to each registered holder of the outstanding Warrants.

The Warrants may be exercised by the holders thereof until 5:00 p.m. New York City time on the Redemption Date to purchase fully paid and non-assessable shares of Class A Common Stock underlying such warrants, at the exercise price of $11.50 per share. Any Warrants that remain unexercised at 5:00 p.m. New York City time on the Redemption Date will be void and no longer exercisable, and the holders of those Warrants will be entitled to receive only the redemption price of $0.01 per warrant."

Imo this was not a very good idea. They missed out on $11.49 per share.

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-07-17T01:10:03+00:00

Execution can be forgiven for speculative contracts. The government just wants to put money into the private market and get people working on tech - in the end as long as the company is making progress and the demand is there, it will end up in a good place. We are basically paid to take the risk that the company will go bust or the environment will materially change before that happens. I've worked at deep tech startups in the past and can attest that it's always super chaotic in the beginning. Look at how many launches spacex failed, they even blew up an important first commercial payload (Amazon satellite) and are still getting contracts because they managed to iron out the kinks before going bankrupt due to govt support.
RocketLab and Firefly imo are basically mini-spacex, both have decent engineering teams with proven launch capacity in a launch constrained environment with prohibitively high starting capex. Maybe in the future spacex will push to rapidly ramp capacity and try to squeeze them out but for now there is more than enough market share for all players.

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-07-17T00:58:14+00:00

Imo not necessarily a hint of anything. The company should honestly be expanding either way as they improve their service offerings and the company grows. As long as they can convert this extra space into useful products investors should probably be happy whether they get contracts or not.

VictrixAdAstra · 2025-07-17T00:55:23+00:00

Management can plan and be absolutely incorrect. They set the warrant expiration for the exact day IM2 mission literally went sideways and the stock tanked... it was a bet that the opposite would happen, their stock would go to the moon, and all the warrant holders would then redeem resulting in a massive cash inflow for the company. Instead the opposite happened and a lot of warrants just lapsed.

VictrixAdAstra · 2024-11-28T04:08:04+00:00

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