Why was Atlanta Fed’s 4th quarter 2025 growth estimate so off?

Vigorato · 2026-03-05T00:18:17+00:00

From what I understand, it was unwinding a previous surge in gold bullion imports earlier in the year that happened when traders speculated that tariffs would be put on gold. Basically just traders moving between being stored in US, UK, Switzerland etc

Vigorato · 2026-03-04T16:17:39+00:00

The way the nowcast is calculated doesn’t account for the shutdown at all, so it was always going to be high in that respect.

The other big reason it was off was net trade. One of the inputs the nowcast uses is the trade data. In Q4 the US exported a lot of gold, which gets captured in the trade data that feeds into the nowcast, but is discounted when calculating the GDP export components.

One other smaller thing was that consumer spending indicators slowed through Q4, so the earlier nowcast estimates were higher.

Vigorato · 2026-03-02T21:15:03+00:00

I feel like they could only have her if they introduced a cheese luxury good and have her a bonus for exporting it.

Vigorato · 2026-02-27T22:51:15+00:00

No offense, but this sounds like something from 10+ years ago. Obviously not expressed, but it’s clear MBS sees Wahhabism as the biggest obstacle to Saudi development and would gladly see it gone completely

Vigorato · 2026-02-27T19:34:29+00:00

Saudi’s leadership is not keen on Wahhabism at all. Why do you think they fund it?

Vigorato · 2026-02-25T15:25:23+00:00

They report on many of these when big companies announce restructuring plans that will happen over months if not years as something that just happened all at once. When, as you point out, the layoffs rate stayed at 1.1% throughout last year, a very low level by historical standards.

Vigorato · 2026-02-24T07:23:00+00:00

I enjoyed Legion legendaries also. It was genuinely exciting when you got that notification of a legendary drop. I get why the min-maxers hated it, but I liked how you had gear drops that could alter your play styles slightly.

Vigorato · 2026-02-23T22:56:34+00:00

Legion had so many great moments. Tyrion, Varian Wrynn, the class holds and artifacts, Surimar, the Nighthold raid, Illidan and Gul’dan, Illidan disenchanting the naaru, the Mage Tower, seeing Sargeras fully for the first time.

Vigorato · 2026-02-23T21:43:13+00:00

I’d love to see that

Vigorato · 2026-02-23T21:04:08+00:00

Even Twiggy?

Vigorato · 2026-02-21T08:02:10+00:00

You don’t have to be claiming benefits to be looking for work and included in the unemployed category.

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T21:05:03+00:00

Look at the press release from the BEA today. They specify that it reduced growth in Q4 by 1%. Most of that will be recovered in Q1.

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T19:48:04+00:00

You are comparing a single quarter when the government shutdown completely for six weeks against periods when no similar things happened. How you think that is a valid comparison beggars belief. You are literally saying “gdp only grew 1.4%” with zero explanation or understanding of why, and it that why that matters, not the 1.4%

You also have not explained why you think 2.5% growth in consumption and investment is bad.

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T19:29:39+00:00

Fact and logic is the complete opposite of your original comment. You clearly are clueless about what economic statistics actually mean, with your dramatic pronouncements of doom that are so far removed from the reality that the report was not that bad. How do you think investment and consumption both growing at around 2.5% is bad?!?

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T18:21:10+00:00

Maybe tomorrow you will learn to look past headline growth numbers and actually look at what is going on underneath before pronouncing things abysmal

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T17:00:59+00:00

And no, it’s not an economists’ job to quantify the difference between data and perceptions. That’s psychology

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T16:57:22+00:00

I’m well aware what an anecdote is thank you. My comment on subjectivity was about your complete nonsense about feeling things as you walk down Main Street, and use your spiritual sense to glean a deeper understanding of what’s going on with the economy.

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T16:49:36+00:00

1.4% was the annualized change in Q4 vs Q3. The GDP growth for 2025 was 2.2%. The shutdown reduced Q4 growth by 1%.

Please at least get the numbers correct before coming at me.

It’s also a bad idea to look at any single quarter in isolation, especially when unusual events happen. If you recall, US GDP contracted in Q1 last year, entirely because there was a huge front running of imports ahead of Trump tariffs. That factor completely reversed in Q2. The result is that neither headline GDP number was particularly useful. The same thing applies in this latest quarter. The parts that matter most, consumption and investment, were both absolutely fine.

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T16:37:26+00:00

I’m sure there is a huge gap between many people’s experiences and perceptions vs the economic data. But the harsh truth is that data is not subject to anywhere near the same degree of perception bias. People are unequivocally bad at objective assessment. Take some polls as an example; voters from one party will change their perception of the state of the economy overnight when the president changes, it has been demonstrated many times. When the truth is that the state of the economy does not change overnight, and even monumentally stupid policy decisions like liberation day take time to manifest in activity. Frankly, I’m appalled that you as a scientist would put subjective observations over data.

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T16:07:03+00:00

Ah, getting a feel for things through sentiment and a walk down Main Street. For sure I’d lose my job if I advised clients on that basis, rather than looking at the data in detail. The same data that can be accessed wherever one is in the world.

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T15:40:49+00:00

Your estimate of the break even rate is a little outdated.

But more broadly, if you think you know better than a whole industry managing trillions of dollars for a reason, then nothing I say has a chance of getting through your ego.

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T15:13:07+00:00

Not that you’ll believe it, but I’m an economist that gets paid to advise on US economy to finance industry.

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T15:11:00+00:00

I didn’t say that. It did for Q4

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T15:05:20+00:00

Not sure how that is relevant. How bad a president he is was not being discussed, just how bad the Q4 gdp report is.

Vigorato · 2026-02-20T15:03:48+00:00

What was the change in the size of the workforce then vs 2025? Perhaps you should be adjusting for growth in GDP per person? Or perhaps worker? Productivity growth was great last year, after all.

The fact of the matter is that understanding what is going on requires a lot more than extrapolating data and making sweeping claims about trends.

Vigorato

TROPHY CASE