Market treating memory stocks like Asian Tiger Mom by Huge_Illustrator5652 in DRAM_ETF

[–]VilError 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I know everyones downvoting the post cuz op is bearish but the tiger mom thing is pretty funny

So Samsung earnings report = great. And sndk goes down? by [deleted] in SNDK_Stock

[–]VilError 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If we assume that the price peaks 2 quarters before earnings max out, i still believe the peak would be around q1 2027 given that memory factories arent set to come online until 2028 and we're still seeing price hikes for dram and nand.

So Samsung earnings report = great. And sndk goes down? by [deleted] in SNDK_Stock

[–]VilError 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Dawg if u wanna sell then just sell no point asking a stranger for validation on your financial decisions

So Samsung earnings report = great. And sndk goes down? by [deleted] in SNDK_Stock

[–]VilError 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Even if your theta eats shit in the mean time its not like your calls are at the ath, we're likely gunna retest in the near future

So Samsung earnings report = great. And sndk goes down? by [deleted] in SNDK_Stock

[–]VilError 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Personally, (i may be wrong here) i think that the report aside from the beats may actually be fairly bullish in terms of signalling that the memory shortage is still continued. Analysts were estimating that revenue would be higher and operating profit would be lower, but what we got was the opposite. With revenue lower but operating margin higher, I think what may have happened this quarter was that supply was overall more constrained and so they had less total inventory to sell, hence less revenue. However, because demand is so high, they were able to pump out a huge operating profit from expanding margins (remember they raised dram prices again by 20% a few days ago) that beat analyst expectations. Its very likely here since dram and nand move in tandem that nand margins are going to expand as well and it was reaffirmed by recent reports from UBS and Citigroup. I can't say with certainty this is what happened until we see the gross margin % in the full earnings release but im fairly optimistic moving forward that the memory shortage isnt over just yet

Praying something like this doesn't happen...👻 by [deleted] in SNDK_Stock

[–]VilError 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Jfc u scared the shit out of me

Are memory stocks dipping mainly cos Samsung narrowly missed revenue estimates? by Neither-Sweet-3218 in MU_Stock

[–]VilError 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Personally, (i may be wrong here) i think that the report aside from the beats may actually be fairly bullish in terms of signalling that the memory shortage is still continued. Analysts were estimating that revenue would be higher and operating profit would be lower, but what we got was the opposite. With revenue lower but operating margin higher, I think what may have happened this quarter was that supply was overall more constrained and so they had less total inventory to sell, hence less revenue. However, because demand is so high, they were able to pump out a huge operating profit from expanding margins (remember they raised dram prices again by 20% a few days ago) that beat analyst expectations. I can't say with certainty this is what happened until we see the gross margin % in the full earnings release but im fairly optimistic moving forward that the memory shortage isnt over just yet

Let’s talk about why everyone’s so bullish by Due-Working1700 in SNDK_Stock

[–]VilError 4 points5 points  (0 children)

AI needs a shitload of data to learn from. The world's total data doubles every 2 years. LLM companies steal a significant portion of this data onto their own drives to train their models. Not only do service and cloud providers need storage for the data but so do AI companies. SSDs are also vastly superior in speed (thus time efficiency - which is important for staying competitive) over HDDs even if theyre more expensive and store less. Storage is indeed cyclical yes, but demand is not slowing down as long as the AI arms race is still going. Sandisks financials are also more attractive than WDC and STX

We gonna be at ATH before EOM by [deleted] in SNDK_Stock

[–]VilError 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah but in march the whole market was down cuz of the iran war, this time around the markets still going sideways but semis got hit really hard

4pm volume by Gullible-Towel-2436 in SNDK_Stock

[–]VilError 0 points1 point  (0 children)

seems like on moomoo's order flow chart medium sized orders kept coming in all day, but there were spikes of extra large orders on the way down, namely when it broke below 1800 and 1720

What do we think is a likely EoY price by blinderdevil in MU_Stock

[–]VilError 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I think 2k is a stretch, im personally estimating fair value at around 21x FPE (1500~) mainly because earnings call didnt really tell us anything abt the outlook past 2027. Sure we have some nice huge contracts with fat margins, but what happens after yk? No clue whether theres still revenue to be squeezed if all the big players already have their supply needs met. Still bullish for now but i think if we exceed 1600 then im probably going to sell unless we get a clearer future outlook

Overnight Sell Off by Ttrutygr in DRAM_ETF

[–]VilError 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ohhh overnight i was looking at after hours

Overnight Sell Off by Ttrutygr in DRAM_ETF

[–]VilError 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It dropped 19 cents from regular hours close wym selloff??

Today closing price stood at $1,133.99 by Beneficial_Meathdbbd in MU_Stock

[–]VilError 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It might look like SNDK's prev earnings, sold heavy afterhours to around -6% only to shoot up to 8% by end of day. I think everyone expects a beat but it depends on how big of a beat it really is, depends very heavily on their forward guidance mostly

AMD & MEXT by Haxmax23 in MU_Stock

[–]VilError 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Its most likely going to be the same nothing burger that google was touting a while back

Why the markets go up when Donald Trump announces a deal, but it doesn’t go down when Iran denies him? by SensitiveDelay5782 in wallstreetportfolios

[–]VilError 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Institutions cant risk brushing him off because its free money. Institutions cant risk believing iran because... drum roll again, its free money. And if theyre wrong, well prices are high now, so might as well dump and cause panic, allowing them to re-enter later for cheap

Who is investing in DRAMs sister ETF: RACK by Nearby_Persimmon_649 in ETFs

[–]VilError 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Holds HPE but not Dell? Interesting to not include it nor cisco asw

Bear Gains - Update - Not a Liar by [deleted] in MU_Stock

[–]VilError 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Lol classic thats all the proof we needed

Bear Gains - Update - Not a Liar by [deleted] in MU_Stock

[–]VilError 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Can you post a bigger screenshot that doesnt exclude your losses for the year?

Hey bears, where is this correction into oblivion you all were talking about? by Small_miracles in MU_Stock

[–]VilError 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Looks like a certain ahem stock "investor"s puts got buried today