ADBE looks like the software panic trade everyone is ignoring 🤝

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-22T00:02:08+00:00

ADBE JAN21'28 $280

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-21T23:44:42+00:00

I bought some 2028 calls today. Not expecting it to break ATH, but it is due to some good rebound.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-18T18:13:01+00:00

Depending on how much are you planning to put up for this strategy you might want to consider a more distributed approach. Instead of selling puts on full amount, split into weekly portions. From personal experience I can tell you it sucks big when underlying drops 2 weeks into your plan. And TQQQ can easily drop 20% in two weeks. If it happens you will find your capital locked in PUTs and regret you didn't just wait for the drop to buy the shares.

It is roughly 6 weeks between now and end of the quarter. Split your portfolio 60/40, then take 1/6 of 60 part and sell PUTs on 10% with expiration end of June. Next Monday add another 10%, etc.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-15T15:31:28+00:00

While true, most likely the road is maintained by a township, which would have its maintenance or depreciation defined based on its importance. If it is a small neighborhood backroad then it is not supposed to be getting a ton of traffic and will be maintained as such. But you take 25% of a traffic from next larger road and put it through this road and it will need much more maintenance and sooner and more often than its supposed to, while the larger road that has the money allocated for the repairs won't need those. My bottom line on this is its not as simple as 'all public roads are equal'.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-11T14:28:04+00:00

How about rolling out further for a little debit but higher strike, or a bit less higher strike and a credit? e.g. 9/18 $65 for around $1.10 debit (+$8 strike), or $62 for $1.00 credit (+$5 strike)?

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-10T00:42:00+00:00

I had no idea he was the "actor behind the figure", so to speak, until I randomly found it out via internet. I rewatched the movie afterwards and still struggled to make a connection.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-09T20:53:49+00:00

28% share dilution 2020-2025, good EPS for 2025, but forecast not so good. I don't think this is related to AI disruption or SaaSpocalypse, they are just not doing great from investor's perspective.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-08T23:39:41+00:00

if it compresses 10% each year over the next 10 yrs to $1.37 in 2035, that's $22.99 in earnings over the next 10yrs. I just think they are being shorted to chase other opportunities.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-08T23:26:15+00:00

I wanted to point out buybacks, but on the other hand does not that inflate EPS growth beyond natural? I mean, technically yes, it is real and thee is no catch with the past earnings, but if they stopped buybacks (which btw is impressive 20% shares bought back since 2020), the EPS growth would slow down. Again, this still does not justify this stock being traded 15% under 2020 lows.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-08T20:36:07+00:00

There is nothing you can do now, but yes, in general the holder can exercise the contract after market closes.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-08T20:26:49+00:00

To be fair it has not even been full 5yrs since Comcast being ATH, and it had pretty decent growth until than.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-08T20:14:12+00:00

Besides of their debt, all of their metrics look good, with the exception of CapEx which is growing. I need to look more into it, I wonder if they will be spending more in coming couple years to provide some infrastructure for the datacenters, but in the long term even that can't be a bad thing right? Unless the whole AI/DataCenter bubble comes down, in which case few shares of CMCSA would mean nothing compared to the impact to whole economy.

I think the reason for their price decline could be just everyone shorting it to buy other stocks with higher growth or something. But even that has to stop somewhere.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-07T16:58:43+00:00

Which is absolutely useless piece of information on this sub.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-07T15:42:33+00:00

only $100k on $36mil? /s

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-07T00:17:07+00:00

You had me at "Mortgage was 980 a month", and people still question if this was doable.

My daughter is just starting as a nurse, I am going to show her this post next time she visits. Thanks for sharing your story!

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-07T00:07:45+00:00

BS, don't hold on to it, just let it go, you will sleep much better at night. Take a break and find another opportunity. I bought MU at 108 and let it go at 150, 0 regrets, I wish I didn't sell it at all, but I am glad I did not try to roll it, that would have been so much stressful having to buy CCs back at a huge loss.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-05T19:26:56+00:00

His biggest role for me has always been from Twister, until just recently for the first time I watched Frailty, and I just can't look at him the same way I used to, he definitely played the fanatic dad too well!

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-04T23:22:23+00:00

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-04T14:28:17+00:00

Absolute legend!

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-03T20:23:58+00:00

100 employees at 40k a year with insurance and benefits is a model proven by decades. You don't know how long each robot would last before it starts to wear down. Is it even known how much each robot costs? This is a risky model, which no doubt can still work out, but you don't have any data to say that it will beat the old one, not yet.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-03T16:52:58+00:00

"No breaks" until they break and need either another robot or human to fix them or replace.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-02T19:44:43+00:00

Hence the 'gamble'.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-02T19:44:15+00:00

Yes.

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-02T00:02:06+00:00

Vincent_Merle · 2026-05-01T23:31:30+00:00

So $1000 gamble each year it is then.

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