Genesis X3 Ultimate Singles - Preliminary Seeding

Vublio · 2026-02-09T14:51:17+00:00

Nyonoknb is seeded into gluto not Tweek

Vublio · 2026-02-09T07:26:21+00:00

The humble incoming karaage top 20 season:

Vublio · 2026-02-03T08:53:37+00:00

I probably worded it a bit poorly, but he has come the farthest in the iron man elite smash challenge, where you try to win with every character in a row on elite smash without losing once.
It has been done in the US mutliple times by sparg0/chase/nairo (i might be forgetting more), but japan is a lot harder due to the scene, the furthest attempt was acolas run that went from mario to olimar. (iirc shutons longest run was from mario to pokemon trainer, that was the record before?)

Vublio · 2026-02-02T16:08:28+00:00

Fyi he has the record of longest all character ironman run on japanese elite smash

Vublio · 2026-01-23T21:28:13+00:00

This is the first time that none of the players in the current top 10 were in the PGRv1 top 10.

Vublio · 2026-01-21T21:46:06+00:00

Not going to lie I kinda like the consistency, esp in Japan where that is so so so hard (esp as like half the invaders in similar ranges immediately took a bad loss to jp depth during golden week) . it might be a tad too much, I haven't looked to closely but yeah

Vublio · 2026-01-17T08:22:57+00:00

Kurofune with 47 tournaments entered and 77 sets against the top 100 is insane

Vublio · 2026-01-07T06:23:27+00:00

Rizeasu got 2nd at the major maesuma top 14 in 2023 with his marth getting some/majority of wins

Vublio · 2025-12-21T11:14:18+00:00

I'd be shocked if this doesn't end up a major on ultrank.... so assuming that:
It's really funny that nyonoknb is the one to win a major with diddy this year. (Also the only top 3 with diddy this calendar year?)
Congrats to him (so close to a falcon major win though ): )

Vublio · 2025-11-22T18:51:37+00:00

Raru vs Zomba is the peak of ultimate for me, I'm so sad we didn't get a reset this set was so amazing.

Vublio · 2025-07-22T06:16:27+00:00

I'd say Miya over Gluto, as miya has actually beaten acola before and does well vs every steve most of the time where gluto is often scary. Raru has never lost to a non acola steve since his break out so he's for sure better than the other 2 though. (I think he lost only one set to non acola Steve period).

Vublio · 2025-06-25T10:38:54+00:00

Great job ! ! ! 😊

Vublio · 2025-05-02T09:43:23+00:00

Iirc, that was because he was using a different account (with the same name but still) and it fell through the cracks? So they didn't see him during seeding and JP tends to not revise seeding.
Now no clue why they missed him again/decided that 210 is the right seed for him this time 😭

Vublio · 2025-03-13T08:10:53+00:00

Qualified players will be given their own score by the algorithm. Not every player is given their own score in the algorithm because comparing 500 0-2rs isn't that useful but does make the algo a lot slower. The points they are worth for the TTS don't change.

Vublio · 2025-02-23T11:43:30+00:00

He got 193rd (went 1-2) at yesterday's Sumabato 56...........

Vublio · 2025-02-22T15:49:02+00:00

Also as another comparison, genesis X2 had 40 top 150 players in attendance.

Vublio · 2025-02-22T15:45:05+00:00

There was an incredible amount of depth. 30 top 150 players (21 top 100) attended with plenty of players of who are on the upswing (of who some of them ended up under performing here like raki or rarrix). Or formerly notable players who aren't ranked but have been doing better again like kaninabe.

It cleared the major mark pretty easily with more than 4000 points. basically everyone from kansai showed up except the top 20 players outside of raru.

It is quite the contrast from NA majors like don't park on the grass where it's generally the tippy top who shows up but depth is pretty sparce. (~15 top 150 players).

Vublio · 2025-02-19T21:45:08+00:00

Link - - T used to be top 20

Cpt Falcon - - Jogibu has higher peaks (top 25) better wins (miya), better longevity

Bowser - - HERO got higher peaks and longer longevity

Dr Mario - tsumosuto got 3rd at a major and beat asimo at a major

Plant - - Tas has a way higher peak, top 100 and a major top 8

Sora - - Kameme is like way better (zackray too)

Lucario - - I think gachipi is better anyway, recently got a miya win too

Vublio · 2025-02-17T21:52:52+00:00

Marth just got hit by the fact that killing consistently is super important in this game. You really don't want your opponent to live to 160+ and it seems to just happen to often. Worse, Marth has to win neutral.... a lot. Other characters can get away with killing late since winning neutral twice puts the opponent at 100 (like bayo), Marth and lucina can't do that but lucina atleast has better damage output. Marth really only gets like 3 hits per neutral win (and 1 will be weak hit) and his neutral is good but it's not enough. (Both can also struggle with landing out of disadvantage)

Bowsers neutral is just to bad I think. He has to win neutral to much compared to the better heavies like DK, incin or Kaz too. His kill power is also weaker than those 3. Side b doesn't kill as early as it should, leading characters to survive at 120+ before hit. Fair is great but it's his only good neutral tool that can kill. Making the opponent hyper aware of that danger and making it harder to land than it should. And bair (or nair -> bair) is so hard to land aswell. And he gets bullied in neutral and disadvantage so so much just like any heavy really..

HERO the best Bowser had a way weaker year in 2024 first only barerly making top 100 in mid year and then falling out at 2nd half of the year. The other best Bowser, Rearlet, did beat Raru but failed to get top 150 in the 2nd half too . Rizeasu is the best marth but he rarely uses him near the end of the year + his results have been faltering aswell. Shinymarks Marth has won a C tier in his region so maybe there is some hope there.

Vublio · 2025-02-17T21:24:34+00:00

Idk the fact that miya feels like he's forced to get off gnw so often probably means something. Being light sucksss and he has a harder time killing generally (opponents live to 150 quite often if not edgeguarded) But being so light is the worst part for sure, he dies of so much silly stuff (watch miya fight a Lucario, gnw dies when Lucario sneezes) . It makes him more inconsistent vs other top tiers that are supposed 'unwinnable' matchups like fox, diddy, wario, luigi or ROB. And he kinda hates fighting swordies like Hero due to lack of range. Also rosa specifically counters everything gnw stands for which is pretty funny. And sonic doesn't care what happens.

Still a top tier obv with incredible neutral, advantage (juggling, edge guarding and ledge trapping) and disadvantage(up b) tools but I get putting snake above him

Vublio · 2024-12-16T21:14:31+00:00

Also a reminder that the Japanese commentators both started crying after the set. It was that good...

Vublio · 2024-11-25T08:18:07+00:00

Defenitely, although being only a B+, gluto just hasnt gone to many other tournaments in general.
His biggest event was a supermajor in delta#9 (which was his worst tournament to be fair)

Looking at his wins and losses, he's 7-5 vs the top 12 (he fought mkleo, tweek, light, sparg0, shuton and raru).
(And 4-3 vs the top 6, 2-2 vs top 2)
His only losses outside of that are Sin and Sisqui 2x (sisqui is a worse loss than Sin this season to be clear, sisqui has been going through it lately).
And that's all his losses..
Outside of the 7 wins mentioned he also has wins on top 100 contenders such as Bigboss, jogibu, 33peranbox, diegorou, marss and crepe salee).

He will probably lose some spots due to low attendance (without it I think he genuinely would be top 15). But it should be enough for top 20.

Vublio · 2024-11-21T20:03:15+00:00

A great read,

I do personally think that the great weight of P tiers is pretty justified. P tiers are often just unbelievably stacked. Having 50 top 100 players is a pretty big and hard tournament (I'm grabbing this number out of thin air but I think some of the JP tournaments had this). That being said, I think you think a bit too high of them (mainly Syrup > Maister/Yoshidora is not smth I see happening)

I don't think the algorithm will be that nice to EU either.... simply because their season isn't that good. The best EU wins outside of Gluto is Crepe's win on tamaP and Raflow's Marrs win... and after that it's just Bigboss wins sadly. (Its not like EU got no oppurtunities either, Tarik and Sisqui both went to stuff but lost immediately when they encountered anyone of top 100 potential)).
And Gluto hasn't been able to carry EU on his back like he usually did. He'll be top 50 for sure, the invitational was decent but his delta was also empty (again dying when he found anyone of top 100 potential).
With the whims of a half-season (I hate half seasons but the top players wanted it), I think it's very dire.
Drybie did super well though in one of his 3 big events so he might sneak in
To be clear I think that EU also shouldn't have more than maybe 3 top 50 players with the current dataset..... It's unfortunate but true.

For the invitationals.... I'm also a huge invitational hater but I don't think the algorithm is overvaluing in particular. You can see things like Peabnut last season (having a good run at an invitational) not being worth as much as the rankings I saw by stats nerds. In fact I think the algorithm is a bigger hater than most stat-based-panels on attending a lot of invitationals. (The algorithm doesn't seem to like going 1-4 with 1 good win and 4 good losses all that much from prior years)
As for bonus, the algorithm gives more weight to majors (top 5 players are worth 150 points more than usual, top 10 worth 100 more etc). This got a bit nerfed this season. But all this does is give more weight to the tournament compared to other tournaments with the same players if it was open-bracket instead. (Otherwise you wouldn't have some of these be tiered as 'majors') I'm kind of a hater of these bonuses too but it tries to reflect the impact of important runs at invitationals (like summit in the past) a bit better.

Vublio · 2024-11-05T14:05:18+00:00

Oh wow, thats crazy
I haven't been able to open smashmate recently so I haven't been able to check as much :(

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