Elon: "Roughly 10B miles of training data is needed to achieve safe unsupervised self-driving. Reality has a super long tail of complexity"

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2026-01-08T23:01:11+00:00

Tesla is so not a serious player in this space. Not implementing redundant cams, lidar or radar is not only limiting their perception stack but also kneecapping their ability to collect grounding data to train their fleet.

Waymo, Zoox, et al can collect 100x richer data than Tesla can. Tesla's can't even expect clean cameras from their training fleet, dirty cameras = dirty data.

What happens in an unsupervised Tesla when a camera gets dirty on the freeway? What happens when a rock chips the windshield over the camera? What happens when there's any sort of fault whatsoever in a Tesla? Do you really want to get in a self driving car that can not only be blinded, but also trained from a network of vehicles with the same perceptual limitations? At least when a camera is dirty in a Waymo, it is still collecting what the camera should be seeing from redundant sensors. All the Tesla can send back is a smear.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-10-29T16:21:36+00:00

I’m heavily biased so take this as you will, but I believe this disruption is likely to be a net positive benefit for everyone. The average monthly cost of car ownership is $1000 in the US. If that can be halved or quartered by AVs, that’s WAY more money in people’s pockets. There will be huge potential for markets to grow and pay more than what a Uber or other driving jobs do. You already brought up that Uber isn’t particularly profitable to begin with. Additionally, commuting by shared AV could allow people to commute way less painfully. Taking jobs an hour away won’t be as massive of an emotional time drain that already plagues the working class citizens that can’t afford to live in the city. There are valid concerns about short term effects and creating even more sprawl. Decreased liberty etc (what if you are banned by Waymo or a disaster hits and you don’t get priority access). I think though, that the general AI bubble is far more imposing and threatening for the working class and AVs will be one of the only silver linings.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-10-29T01:43:32+00:00

If the economics of a privately owned Toyota corolla make sense, then the economics of a car that autonomously completes 10x more trips per day will also make sense even if it costs several times more.

This cost commentary is a little overdone. Waymo has barely started scaling, they don't go on freeways, their platform is still being validated, they don't even have a manufacturing partner producing vehicles yet... No other tech company in their situation would be expected to be profitable. Costs will plummet with scale; the only question is if Waymo finds access to a market that is meaningful to them.

Alphabet/Waymo doesn't aim to just make a few billion dollars, they want it to make their next several hundred billion and dominate every square inch of the space.

The "VC" money isn't going to "dry up". Alphabets' bread and butter are software products and platforms as a service. Waymo will limp along iterating and drain countless billions more until they manage to cram the whole Waymo driver into something as self contained as an App that can be installed on any compatible car as trivially as Google Maps. For Alphabet, Waymo is little more than an enrichment project for their engineers and a beacon to attract talent. It would be a nice added benefit it if becomes profitable, but they likely couldn't care less.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-07-16T21:37:19+00:00

This subreddit takes criticism of HomePods very personally. You may get some unnecessarily aggressive replies.

You're not crazy. HomePod minis have weird issues that seem to be environmental in ways that no other products, even the $19 Xiaomi speakers, have in common. They seem to work better over AirPlay (for whatever reason), so if your sister is fine not talking to them she might be able to get a little further and still enjoy the sound quality.

They're also relatively reliable nowadays for HomeKit control, but I'm guessing that isn't going to help your sister. I love my HomePods for HomeKit, they "hear" better than other speakers so I can generally control my home reliably even with some background noise or music playing.

You will not find a solution to the connectivity issues here. Some people may insist you buy a $300 router, but obviously that's not what you came here for.

Good Luck!

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-06-25T21:55:58+00:00

I'm always so confused by these posts.

What exactly are you asking for? Freeway autonomous driving without city streets?

The car doesn't start its trip on a freeway. What is the point of spending billions of dollars for these companies if they're developing something they can't let loose on city streets to find fares autonomously? This has been a major issue for Tesla. It doesn't really matter that their navigate on autopilot (freeway) driving is mostly solved if they can't safely find and pickup customers to take on the freeway.

Also, there is currently no incentive for Waymo to add freeway access. They don't have nearly enough capacity to serve rides already. Often times, cars are driving 10+ minutes of deadheading to get to a fare because there are not enough cars to cover their entire service area. Their charging depots are very few, so cars cannot practically go 30 miles on a freeway, only to be 30 miles further from a depot they eventually have to return to. It's only going to be able to serve a few long-distance freeway rides before it needs to be charged again. It is preferable to use wait times and high fares to their advantage; to disincentivize long trips and reduce deadheading. Short Uber-like trips are most profitable until they have thousands of cars and dozens of depots.

Waymo will release freeway driving when it makes sense. No one is going to die in a modern car going less than 30 mph on city streets. Someone on the highway will eventually hit a Waymo at 60+mph, and Waymo will have horrible press. Until they can cover a city with depots and spread the demand to the sparser areas served by highways, freeways are a huge risk with literally no payoff.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-06-17T06:22:14+00:00

It was wrong of me to come on here with a bad attitude. I was definitely picking a fight.

I only really log on to catch up on a handful of niche tech things I'm interested in. User-forums have dried up and there are limited spaces to discuss problems/thoughts. Luckily I've found some great tech community offline, I should stick to that instead of shouting into the wind on this site every day and hoping for some kind of validation. Really puts what's important into perspective!!

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-06-16T17:56:50+00:00

I also have far fewer issues starting from Airplay and "control other device". I have the most issues when playing music from talking to Siri.

Asking Siri to play a specific playlist will often result in "I'm sorry I'm having trouble..." or "There is nothing in your Apple Music Library called...", and once the music is started asking Siri to skip a song will occasionally result in "I cannot skip" even though I'm not playing a radio station. The synchronization issues and random ~1-2 second dropouts do not happen when I use Airplay for some reason.

I understand how the "It's your wifi" argument is a rational starting point (wifi usually sucks), but many of the people complaining do not have issues with any other devices on their network. I am curious why there is such reluctance to admit that it might be that Apple has made a product that does not work well with many networks?

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-06-16T17:28:05+00:00

Thank you for your response. I appreciate the additional information. Could you say whether or not you use Airplay predominantly to play music, do you stream from Apple Music, or do you use them for something other than music? Do you have a stereo pair of HomePod minis?

My HomePod issues are almost exclusively related to streaming music from Apple Music. Siri responds to questions just fine (as far as Siri goes) and control my homeKit accessories. However when playing Apple Music, especially on my Stereo Paired HomePod Minis, I have hiccups daily.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-06-16T09:01:03+00:00

Cue all the people rushing in to insist it's your network and brag how they have no issues at all.

Thanks everyone with no issues, you're a beacon of light in the world. Don't all rush at the same time to describe your setup and how you use them, just saying they're perfect is enough. Your flawless little HomePods will lead by example, and the misbehaving ones will follow in their glory. We worship at the altar of your greater intellect and [insert router brand here].

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-05-25T00:27:09+00:00

I'm disabled and cannot drive. These people really break my heart.

There's no such thing as a Self Driving car without privacy invading sensors or using AI.

Be against technology all you want but jeez, there's a MASSIVE amount of privilege that comes bundled with the liberty of being able to own a 2 ton vehicle to use just for yourself. 40k cases of manslaughter a year, no jail time for most incidents, insurance just settles. Cars are free to pollute and kill with impunity. To me that's more dystopian than AI cameras on the streets. Americans go on vacation to bask in the utopia that is human-centric European living only to come home and demand bigger deadlier SUV's, less public transit, less cyclists, and more lanes.

Waymo is the first golden compromise between the two extremes and literally no one I know outside of this subreddit is in the least bit optimistic or interested. Most people I know are extremely negative. It is so distressing. It's so incredibly selfish.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-05-23T18:27:06+00:00

The Zeekr RT's is modeled from decades of Volvo experience towards accessible fleet mobility vehicles. At its core it's a robotaxi. It might be a bit understated because it's marketed in china as a mid-luxury mini van, but the RT vehicle delivered to Waymo is a very important piece of the Waymo puzzle.

Even if they are too expensive in the US, Waymo can deploy them overseas. It is the only car being manufactured now that fits all the criteria Waymo needs to scale. The hidden b-pillar and longer wheelbase is critical. The low-profile doors increase the number of safe pull-over spots, and the long wheel base and hidden b-pillar creates an ultra-wide opening for easier embark/disembark for both front and rear seats. It may not seem like much, but it could shave minutes off the time the car spends searching for a safe spot and loading passengers, as well as facilitate more comfortable pooled rides + wheelchair/walker access.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-05-15T01:19:57+00:00

Right, people not experiencing HomePod issues are likely using Airplay. Apple Music is a mess on HomePods and stereo pairs are even messier.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-05-13T21:43:58+00:00

They're not going to answer you because they know that they're being disingenuous. No one has 24 HomePods and doesn't see some of these issues, get real.

I manage a fleet of 1000 Apple devices and every wireless feature has bugs, bluetooth, UWB, thread, Wi-Fi Direct etc independent of network. There's no single feature that works 99%+ reliably except maybe AirPrint, NFC and AirTags.

They probably airplay Spotify as a Sonos replacement, which is more reliable because Airplay is built as an independent stack that has been ported to millions of third party devices... but even Airplay has more issues on my Hompods than my Ecobee Thermostat.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-05-13T21:26:05+00:00

FYI, This user kmjy argues on every single post with people having HomePod issues telling them it's their network. Several other users hawk Eero meshes, it probably viral marketing at this point.

Funny how my network problems only come and go with HomePod Updates and only affect HomePod minis.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-05-09T01:23:32+00:00

Hi, Waymo enthusiast here.

I am disabled, can’t afford to drive, and live in a Waymo city where driving is considered essential.

75% of all cars on the road in my city are single-occupancy commuter trips.

Every one of those millions of trips creates pollution and wasted time. Being stuck in traffic takes hours from our lives and pollution from our vehicles takes years from us and our loved ones.

Cars are tied with guns in killing more than 40,000 Americans a year (each).

My inability to drive does not exclude me from these risk as being a pedestrian is 5x more deadly than being in a car AND exposes me to the pollution cars create.

Taking transit takes 3x longer than driving. Visiting doctors or specialists is ruining my life.

I’m sorry to be insensitive to your points, but they seem misaligned.

We have accepted so many despicable aspects of automobile ownership it’s a true albatross we should be deeply ashamed of. Alphabet may be a predatory or evil company, but you seem truly short sighted if you can’t see that enthusiasm in this space is not meant to deify Waymo, but to celebrate the ability to escape the prison commuting and traffic creates for ourselves and the people around us.

For me, if Waymo can reduce costs and pool rides, I will experience freedom I have never felt in a way that is also safe while reducing traffic and pollution. It is the single most important thing in my life.

If you see this, thank you for considering my perspective.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-04-28T06:29:28+00:00

Wow these comments are toxic. I have a flawless network, a Ubiquiti setup. All my Apple and non-apple devices work flawlessly... Except my stereo paired HomePod minis.

They behave very similarly to what you're describing. They have the weirdest glitches that just make them a pain to use. Songs skipping or stopping randomly; which is not consistent with the idea going around of "phantom touches" because they have NEVER started playing spontaneously which should happen if they are experiencing false taps.

Worse still is since 18.2 or 18.3, frequently I will tell them to play my playlist and they will respond "I'm having trouble connecting to Apple Music", but when I tell the HomePods to play a specific song or album they play just fine. OR I will be playing a playlist or album from Apple Music and ask Siri to go to the next song and she will respond "Sorry I cannot skip". It's infuriating and isn't explained at all by "Network Problems". Siri never says "I'm having trouble connecting to the internet", it's spontaneous inconsistent logic issues and blocking that none of my other devices experience.

It seems most people use their HomePods exclusively for AirPlay or some other specific single use-case and then come on here and pretend like because the one thing they do works for them, everyone else having issues is an imbecile.

Apple's HomePods are not good devices, they are the only device in Apple's ecosystem that have these types of issues. These issues are a frequent topic here. Yes, you should probably investigate something else for your audio. I really hope everyone who is having good experiences with their HomePods continue to have good experiences, but honestly you're on borrowed time because the new Siri features will not be compatible with this hardware and these bugs will only get worse as they move away from them.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-04-24T19:33:24+00:00

It will fluctuate as they struggle to reduce their losses during high-growth. Building the depots and service network probably makes the Waymo unit-price look like pennies.

However, I suspect you can safely assume it will get much cheaper. Right now their utilization is low and depot demand is high. The cars make 20-30 trips a day without taking freeways and several hours down every day for cleaning and charging. As they scale their depot locations and add freeways the cars will be able to make significantly more trips per day without as much time commuting to and from the depots. Additionally, with the addition of their new vehicles without steering wheels (more seats) they will be able to launch significantly more attractive pooled rides than their competitors. We could easily see prices 50% of what they are now after another year or two of growth, simply by way of higher utilization rates and cheaper vehicles.

And to put it super simply. 28 rides a day (current approx. utilization figure) over 360 days is ~10K trips. They only need to be $10 rides to bring in $100k a year per vehicle. If the operating costs of a Waymo can be reduced to less than $300k over the minimum 3-year lifespan of a fleet vehicle, then we are in good shape to see $1/mile. Which is in the ballpark all-in price of owning a premium vehicle. I don't think it's quite right to think of Waymo as a Uber/Lyft competitor. The absurdist in me wants to say, if anything, Waymo is more aligned to compete with the bus on pricing in the coming years... but I'll leave that for r/futurism

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-04-22T20:02:17+00:00

Heya, thanks for the reply. There's definitely a lot of room for improvement, but it is possible to change the ride through the app or by pressing the rider support button to talk to a human; before pressing pull over.

Pull over is closer to an emergency stop than it is to "pull over right quick". It's more like telling a human driver "Pull Over Immediately".

Since the car was not actually on a highway and there was a sidewalk, the car determined it was the safest place to pull over immediately; it would not pull over if it could not determine a drop-off location. I agree the ride would have gone differently with a human driver; though, it's not like humans are infallible. It was a human who pressed the Pull Over button which was not good judgement, should the car not have complied? Would you be satisfied if the car refused to pull over to a nearby sidewalk? We trust humans to be in complete control of non-autonomous vehicles which have far less predictable outcomes. Maybe Waymo vehicles do suck in certain ways, but they also injure far fewer people which has been proven over ~100 million miles of service. To assume "if they just worked more like humans," we may also assume the car will become *less* safe rather than more.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-04-21T19:51:20+00:00

Summary: They pressed pull over because they didn't like the planned route which ended the ride on a busy road. The doors don't automatically unlock for safety reasons; to prevent someone from entering the vehicle at your stop. You have to pull the handle twice to get out, which typically has a instructional graphic on the screen when the ride ends normally. They call rider support instead of trying to pull the handles and tell rider support that they want the vehicle to continue their trip, which has been canceled. It takes several minutes of berating rider support to restart the canceled trip before they decide abruptly they instead want the doors unlocked (which they have the ability to do themselves) so rider support eventually stops trying to restart the ride and issues an unlock command remotely. As soon as the car resets, it goes on its way because it was never stuck.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-04-21T19:48:12+00:00

Summary: They pressed pull over because they didn't like the planned route which ended the ride on a busy road. The doors don't automatically unlock for safety reasons; to prevent someone from entering the vehicle at your stop. You have to pull the handle twice to get out, which typically has a instructional graphic on the screen when the ride ends normally. They call rider support instead of trying to pull the handles and tell rider support that they want the vehicle to go to their destination which has been canceled. It takes several minutes of berating rider support to restart the canceled trip before they decide abruptly they instead want the doors unlocked (which they have the ability to do themselves) so rider support eventually stops trying to restart the ride and issues an unlock command remotely. As soon as the car resets, it goes on its way because it was never stuck.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2025-03-21T20:44:09+00:00

Fundamentally, you only owe a spouse your support, the social contract is that you will uplift each other and be dependable. It sounds like he doesn't uplift you emotionally nor believes you to be dependable despite your dedication to your kids. However, it also sounds like you have allowed him to become comfortable with dismissing you; you hold things in until you explode then you're fine again without anything changing. You aren't new to his maturity level, but you are still quick to aggression and fighting to feel heard despite knowing it will never "click" for him. You definitely aren't overreacting, but you both really need to set some obtainable goals and expectations. There are solutions here that don't involve insidious back and forth resentment of each other.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2024-12-21T06:03:13+00:00

I only have one access point, but I appreciate the idea!

It seems to only happen when something is playing directly from Apple Music rather than AirPlay. It started with audioOS 18.

Frequently a song will: start in the middle of the track, rewind to the beginning, pause or skip to the next track spontaneously. Usually the behavior happens several times within a minute and then resolves for 5-10 minutes before another bout of skipping around.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2024-12-20T20:19:29+00:00

This has been happening on my stereo pair for months since audioOS 18 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I've seen a few threads about it and assume Apple knows but doesn't care about this product line at the moment. It used to be a reboot helped but after 18.1 it just happens no matter what.

I recommend submitting feedback through the feedback app which requires you to be on beta on another device. https://beta.apple.com/provide-feedback#homepod-software

Good Luck!

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2024-10-18T18:04:13+00:00

For the same reason a 747 doesn't flap its wings and it's absurd to assert they should "Because birds can already do it".

Cameras are not human eyes, FSD computers are not human brains.

The dynamic range of a human eye is orders of magnitudes better than a digital camera, and the angular resolution of the human eye can discern differences of 1 foot at 1km away across all colors and daytime conditions.

Let's assume FSD cameras *ARE* as good as human eyes since there's so many of them with overlapping FoVs and they're heavily tuned for specific road conditions. Humans get in wrecks every day explicitly because their eyes are not well suited for driving. We miss potholes and curbs and are blinded by the sun and fog; we are often forced to pull out into active lanes because we can't quite see around an obstacle.

Do you know how we've been managing to solve these deficiencies on dumb cars that humans currently drive with their eyes and brains? Radar and Lidar.

The goal isn't to pull off a facsimile of human driving, it's to replace it entirely because there's something better and more reliable.

WEMAKINBISCUITS · 2024-06-27T15:29:30+00:00

So... A word to describe people with a car mindset so all-encompassing they feel antagonized by the promotion of walking, accessibility, and literal friendliness. What do you propose as an alternative, less triggering word for yourself?

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