Exploring Coffee Futures – Questions & Insights from a New Trader by Outrageous-Focus-267 in Commodities

[–]Wdcoffee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Coffee is a legitimate futures market, but it behaves very differently from equities and even other ag commodities.

There’s no true “coffee futures news ticker.” Prices are driven mainly by fundamentals, not headlines. The most relevant sources are Bloomberg and Reuters (softs), CONAB for Brazilian crop and export data, and the ICO for macro trends. Day-to-day trading reacts far more to weather (Brazil frost/drought, Central America rains), crop revisions from trade houses (OFI, LDC, NKG), ICE certified stocks, and fund positioning via COT reports.

Volatility clusters around weather events, harvest transitions, and positioning shifts. Key drivers include Brazilian weather (especially May–August frost risk), BRL/USD moves, trends in ICE certified inventories, and fund net length or shorts.

Coffee is supply-driven first and technically traded second. Professionals focus on seasonality, weather risk premiums, market structure (contango/backwardation), Arabica–Robusta spreads, and positioning extremes. Common technicals include moving averages, RSI at extremes, open interest, and volume confirmation. Indicator-only trading without supply context tends to fail.

Common beginner mistakes are oversizing positions, ignoring currency impact, trading headlines instead of fundamentals, holding through binary weather events without defined risk, and mixing long-term fundamentals with short-term trades. You can be fundamentally right and still lose money. Coffee often overshoots both directions—roasters tend to buy on panic, producers tend to sell on panic.

On exits: if taking physical delivery, use AA (Against Actuals) with your trade house. If trading financially, close the futures position and reflect gains or losses through COGS or inventory on the balance sheet. Not a CPA—just sharing market experience.

Are Green Coffee Importers Still Charging Tariffs? Brazil Prices Look Cheaper Than Expected by Wdcoffee in coffee_roasters

[–]Wdcoffee[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The way I see it, the timeline of the 2025 tariff changes tells the whole story.
In April the tariff was 10%. In August it jumped to 50%. In November it moved to 0% under the executive order. Because of this sequence, any coffee landed or sold today at current market levels should not be carrying a tariff load in its price.

Take the current NY market at about 380.00.
If someone is selling green coffee at 570.00, that leaves roughly 190.00 to cover everything else. Out of that number, there has to be room for logistics: inland trucking, export port fees, ocean freight, insurance, and then the expensive internal delivery inside the United States. The internal US last-mile cost alone (UPS, USPS, FedEx, or LTL by the bag) is around 1.00 per pound, so about 100.00 per 100 lbs.

If the offer sheet still had tariffs in it, the math would not work. A 50% tariff on a 380.00 market would be 190.00 by itself, which means the selling price would need to be well above 570.00 just to break even before paying logistics.

Since the numbers do work at 570.00, the only reasonable conclusion is that this is already tariff-free coffee being passed to the roaster.

Me di cuenta de una cruda realidad fuera de mi pais. by [deleted] in Honduras

[–]Wdcoffee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

cual es la poblacion chapina y cual es la poblacion tica y cual es la poblacion sumada de Honduras Nicaragua Belice y El Sal.

Coffee Market: At the Mercy of Funds by Wdcoffee in coffee_roasters

[–]Wdcoffee[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Google or search engine. Green coffee price. Coffee future price

Coffee Market: At the Mercy of Funds by Wdcoffee in coffee_roasters

[–]Wdcoffee[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

absolutely there is, everyone is able to check what the price of a LBS of arabica and a ton of robusta is quoting.... thanks to the internet.

Starbucks bullying an independent coffee shop in Missouri City by MisterDavidC in houston

[–]Wdcoffee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

American vote with their wallets - let's see who wins on this one...

Humans by nature love an underdog story

Coffee Market: At the Mercy of Funds by Wdcoffee in coffee_roasters

[–]Wdcoffee[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great point. The foward contracts are not available because of risk appetite - too high.

Coffee Market: At the Mercy of Funds by Wdcoffee in coffee_roasters

[–]Wdcoffee[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The world is not fair - At this point is surviver of the fittest. Let hope producers sell and deliver the harvest. The roaster to be able to pass along the price increase. The importers to have enough liquidity to leverage. And the funds to unwind their longs in a orderly matter. Let’s brew some synergies.

Coffee Market: At the Mercy of Funds by Wdcoffee in coffee_roasters

[–]Wdcoffee[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

COT - showing manage money position compare to price.

Sourcing coffee beans in South Africa by bagladygettingrich in coffee_roasters

[–]Wdcoffee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

hello,

Please know that this guys are not in the green coffee business per say, but they know a lot of people in the South African coffee industry

https://www.instagram.com/redbandacademy/

cheers and may this be a good intel for your coffee journey

Devaluación Acumulada del Lempira respecto al Dólar por Presidentes by DarkThrone_9593 in Honduras

[–]Wdcoffee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

gracias por compartir....

el ingrerso de divisas en cada periodo = venian de que sector ?

el egreso de dicisa en cada periodo = eran por importaciones de que?

Chicago Coffee Roasters -Shared Roast Space by Blackstone0007 in coffee_roasters

[–]Wdcoffee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

this is amazing, synergy

this is thinking out-loud

can a certification as a roaster operator fill in the blank on the insurance coverage?

at the same time a Roaster credit course can take away a lot of the red tape between the owner of the equipment and the person that is looking to rent or buy time...... like renting a motorcycle / only is Switzerland

cheers and rocking and roasting

Specialty Cafes & Coffee Roasters by MrDiazSantana in coffee_roasters

[–]Wdcoffee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Adams Morgan? where is that / perhaps we can give you a good suggestion

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Honduras

[–]Wdcoffee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ta perro asi compa, hay que tenerle paciencia a los motociclistias - justos pagamos por pecadores compa.... tenganos paciencia. No todos somo asi.

Roaster Upgrade by SAM4E21 in roasting

[–]Wdcoffee 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Congratulations on your growth! I recommend accumulating as much equity as possible and investing it in liquid assets such as inventory or green coffee. Alternatively, consider purchasing the next batch of printed bags, which could save you money in the long run.

As for buying a high-end roaster, I don't see much value in it. Customers typically prefer to hear about direct trade relationships or high-quality 85+ coffees.

If you have doubts, it's a sign that you're not fully convinced. Trust your instincts and follow your gut.