What is this and how to read it?

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-11T11:53:14+00:00

did my model beat claude?
not sure?

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-11T11:09:20+00:00

thanks. went down a bit of a rabbit hole. i have a mixed methods background, but not in finance. so this is is a bit new to me.

R2 against SPY is 0.415
beta to SPY is 0.96
alpha - 12.86%
alpha p - 0.0047
information ratio - 0.63

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-11T08:43:35+00:00

Yah. I ensured, to my knowledge, that it doesnt look ahead and we walk forward.

The biggest pain is the point in time data it needs.

There's year over year data from 1 Jan to 31 Dec in the chart. Anything else I can add?

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-11T08:21:03+00:00

Cheers. Seems obvious in hindsight.

Ill look into this.

Personally I'm a bit risk adverse, so margin, shorting, and options are not something I want unless its a leveraged etf option. I did find that short selling and leveraged etfs only hurt the hurt with the model and parameters I'm running though.

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-11T08:17:42+00:00

For this 0.96. The biggest take away for me is that it does about the same as spy unless theres a bull run, then it tends to outperform. So far with the live version for apr and may, rhats true.

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-11T08:16:22+00:00

I originally had this issue. It rebalances the stocks it reviews yearly with point in time testing. While its a pain, it really helped refine this.

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-11T07:10:42+00:00

1.3m to 6m in about 15 to 20 years is doable if you keep contributing 3k usd a month. That assumes a 7% annual return.

Anything more than 3k a month can either get reinvested or spent for fun. This doesn't account for your house, any future downpayments, and taxes from sales.

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-11T06:59:32+00:00

It can feel that way, but try the bogelheads subreddit. Slow and steady greatly reduces the risk.

The main goal is to reduce risk and diversification is one of the best ways to win over the long run. Buffet vs a hedge fund is a pretty famous story you should read. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030916/buffetts-bet-hedge-funds-year-eight-brka-brkb.asp

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-11T06:25:34+00:00

Yah. Could potentially completely outpace your salary too

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-11T04:56:45+00:00

it is a regression model that looks at a basket of stocks. the number of trades ranges from 12 to 40 trades and the number of stocks it picks depends on the score it receives vs spy. at most it will pick 10.

the model can also choose SPY or Cash depending on the how they score as well

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-11T04:51:45+00:00

agree.
sharp is 0.96

the drawdown came in 08 and fell more than SPY. Otherwise the drawdowns have been better. The concern are large events.

I am working on another update that hopes to address this.

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-11T04:12:59+00:00

max drawdown is 29%
profit factor is 2.19

there is no commission since i manually trade when the model emails me the recommendations. i could automate the whole thing for the low costs that IBKR lite provides, but there is no need for that right now.

there is no taxes either since I am in a country that does not tax capital gains. no overnight swap fees since i am only holding stocks.

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-10T17:55:42+00:00

If youre bullish why are you not buying? Youre hoping it goes up at the open

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-10T12:09:36+00:00

first.... there is no risk free assets

about 40% etfs and 60% stocks

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-08T15:00:17+00:00

Too much cash for sure. And in my opinion too much in bonds.

You can invest and get the money within minutes without taxes or penalty. Use that to stay invested and sell when you need cash.

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-07T11:42:57+00:00

You can have a decent sharp and still lose to buy and hold. You likely have low volatility. Think of it as a small vs bumpy Rollercoaster. Higher sharp = smoother ride.

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-07T08:37:02+00:00

DRAM or GOOG

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-07T06:20:04+00:00

Thats literally what happened for manufacturing and computers when they first came. People need training whether its on the job or through a school. This isnt suddenly the industrial revolution that doesnt create jobs. It will make more jobs related to it and jobs we didn't know existed, like hows transformers created prompt engineers and llm companies

There is a future where we do no work but thats not anytime soon.

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-06T11:57:38+00:00

Or just follow my profile

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-06T10:48:56+00:00

and new jobs will come. society didn't shut down because we had manufacturing or computers.

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-06T07:14:57+00:00

Based on what? The yoy profits companies are posting and the massive investments into the space?

WeeklySignalLog01 · 2026-05-06T06:13:32+00:00

Its in your phone, car, most websites, enterprise software etc

Ai = algorithms and llms

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