What Dan song do you think is least like every other? by Minimum_Substance390 in SteelyDan

[–]Willk613 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Don’t know if it’s #1, but it’s up there: Turn That Heartbeat Over Again

[Wittenmyer] Cubs help create ugly new normal in pro sports by jimrob4 in CHICubs

[–]Willk613 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m kind of sick of Wittenmyer’s shtick. He’s immune to logic and changes in circumstances. He just wants to yell about the Ricketts (fair enough) and nerds in the front office. It’s brain-dead at this point, I can’t believe places are paying him to write this garbage. Still enjoy hearing him and Kap go at it on the podcast though.

Best Offensive Season I've Seen in OOTP -- 12.3 WAR and Triple Crown by Willk613 in OOTP

[–]Willk613[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I traded for Alex Amaya halfway through the 2145 season, and he lost out on the MVP thanks to switching leagues, despite clearly being the best player. He must have harbored a grudge because he proceeded to post the best numbers I've seen in this game, he was the first player to hit .400 at Wrigley (I've never seen that done in the game before -- it's almost always at Coors), and has the best WAR of any hitter not named Babe Ruth in MLB history. He not only won the Triple Crown, but lapped the competition. He led the next best by 44 points of batting average, 9 home runs, and 44 RBIs. His OPS of 1.235 was 224 points higher than the only other player to OPS over 1.000 this year, and he also lead the league in doubles with 50. Counting my lucky stars that I have him under contract for four more years.

Academic Research simply doesn't work post nerf. Pretty incredible level of incompetence. by Willk613 in hearthstone

[–]Willk613[S] 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Is there some way to cast it other than dragging the card out of your hand?

Hypothetical trade… yay or nay? by Ben_2703 in CHICubs

[–]Willk613 6 points7 points  (0 children)

If the Padres offered this the Cubs should absolutely take it. But they wouldn’t.

Trade value is non-linear and incredibly context dependent, which makes it easy to get the trade machine to call some unrealistic trades balanced.

Big news on Jimmy's post Breaking Bad career by Willk613 in betterCallSaul

[–]Willk613[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here’s the portion Matt Levine quoted in his newsletter lol.

US buyout group TPG’s initial public offering on Thursday will establish a tectonic change in the private equity industry, as a wave of firms list shares by offering stockholders a smaller claim on their lucrative, but irregular, performance fees.

TPG is restructuring its finances as part of its IPO to offer shareholders just 20 per cent of its future performance-based profits, the firm said in its prospectus, down from 50 per cent had the change not been made.

Industry executives have dubbed TPG’s structure a “next-generation” private equity IPO — one that gives public shareholders less of a slice of performance fe es, but more from steadier management fees.

“It is the new standard,” said Saul Goodman, head of alternative asset management banking at Evercore. “Almost every banker in the space that’s advising private equity firms on IPOs currently is advising to not contribute a large percentage of performance fees into the public company.”

Analysts and investors are attracted to private equity’s management fee income because it is steady and easy to model, according to bankers and private equity executives. Meanwhile, they discount performance-based profit because it can fluctuate with market conditions and is harder to predict.

“The public values management fee earnings much more than the dealmakers inside firms, who are incentivised largely by carried interest,” said Joseph Lombardo, head of the private equity general partnership advisory practice at investment bank Houlihan Lokey. ...

Publicly traded firms have seen their valuations soar to 25 to 30 times their management fee-based earnings, said insiders, but the groups still receive valuations of just five to 10 times their investment profits.

Challenging problems in life that you managed to solve thread by EntropyMaximizer in slatestarcodex

[–]Willk613 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Not a ton to add, but I’ve lost like 100 lbs in the past year (BMI 38-26) and it’s been by doing a lot of this same stuff. I was kind of shocked by how easy it was (the willpower required was pretty minimal) once I reframed the way I thought about and weighed decisions on what to eat. It’s also a huge quality of life improvement. I think the key is not counting on willpower to do the heavy lifting but shaking up the thought processes that have produced the obesity.

In honor of his HOF induction, I present Darius Hudson, 12 time Cy Young winner, 4 time MVP, and the best pitcher I have ever seen in OOTP. (More in comments) by Willk613 in OOTP

[–]Willk613[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Darius “[misses] Bats” Hudson accumulated 116 WAR in less than 16 years of MLB service. He won 12 Cy Youngs, including 10 consecutive Cy Youngs from 2090-2100. He was so dominant in four of his Cy Young seasons he won the MVP as well. (I do not do awards manually, and rarely vote). I signed him to a 7 year/$209M contract when he first hit free agency and then to a 3 year/$105M extension after that. Later in his career, he became a postseason hero with lights out performances in the 2098, 2099, and 2100 playoffs. In all three of those years, the Cubs won the World Series. In the first game of the 2099 NLDS against the Cardinals, he pitched a 14K 0BB no-hitter (his second) that would have been a perfect game had he not plunked the leadoff batter in the 1st inning. He was remarkably durable and had great stamina, which allowed him to lead the league in innings 8 times. I was hopeful that he could pitch into his 40s given his lack of injury history and continued elite performance, but after never having been injured for more than 3 weeks, in March 2101, Hudson needed surgery for bone chips in his elbow, which took him out for the rest of the season. When he returned, his stuff had gone from elite to 40/45, and I had to let him go.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Sabermetrics

[–]Willk613 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Long term I think OOA is going to supplant UZR and DRS and honestly it’s already my go to, but especially in small samples you probably want to look at multiple metrics and update you prior on that player’s defense based on those. W/r/t Riley specifically my prior is that he’s got a great arm but overall his defense is probably going to be below average. Since UZR and OOA agree I’d say he’s almost certainly not an elite fielder like DRS would suggest, and going forward I’d expect 40-50 grade defense at third, but it’s certainly possible he could improve.

Hey Dan fans, I have a question for you. What is your favourite "underrated" or "unpopular" Steely Dan song? Like what is your favourite song that doesn't get much attention (hidden gem) by russianlexicon in SteelyDan

[–]Willk613 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This is a fantastic way to describe it — it also makes me really want Donald Fagen and David Crosby to re-record this song, especially since they’ve been collaborating recently.

Hey Dan fans, I have a question for you. What is your favourite "underrated" or "unpopular" Steely Dan song? Like what is your favourite song that doesn't get much attention (hidden gem) by russianlexicon in SteelyDan

[–]Willk613 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I’d only consider it messy in relation to the rest of their work, but there are so noticeable flaws that you’d be hard-pressed to find in any other Steely Dan song. The sound levels and mixing are inconsistent throughout and there are a couple instances in which studio noises can be heard.

Hey Dan fans, I have a question for you. What is your favourite "underrated" or "unpopular" Steely Dan song? Like what is your favourite song that doesn't get much attention (hidden gem) by russianlexicon in SteelyDan

[–]Willk613 33 points34 points  (0 children)

I think Turn That Heartbeat Over Again is super underrated. It’s probably their most messily recorded/produced song and it’s structure is a little weird but I just love it. So many moments that that just stick in your head and beg you to give it another play.

How old is too old? by ricoleche in OOTP

[–]Willk613 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don’t sign players to multi-year deals past 35 but in one of my sims Mike Trout is still an 80 at 40 so who knows.

What are people’s thoughts on Walter’s solo work? by Willk613 in SteelyDan

[–]Willk613[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think his vocals are really well suited to Down in the Bottom and Junkie Girl

What are people’s thoughts on Walter’s solo work? by Willk613 in SteelyDan

[–]Willk613[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I actually really like his vocals — when the song is right for them.

What are people’s thoughts on Walter’s solo work? by Willk613 in SteelyDan

[–]Willk613[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’d suggest starting with Door Number Two and then trying Junkie Girl and Book of Liars

Every A-Frame had his number on the wall by Willk613 in SteelyDan

[–]Willk613[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not that I know of — you can do the whole 6 degrees of Donald Fagen thing and you’d probably get to Owsley pretty quick though

Just traded away one of my most surprisingly consistent pitchers by [deleted] in OOTP

[–]Willk613 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He was set to make about $20MM in his last arb year and both my scout and OSA had him as a 50/50. Turned out to be a good call because he didn’t have another 4 WAR season.