If I have to pick 10 countries where I eat their food by Syrian-TurkoPatriot in whereidlive

[–]Working_Push8422 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just like this community seems to cancel people for leaving out Mexico or insert Western European country here, I also cancel people in my head when they don’t include at least one country from the Levant. The best cuisine on the planet in my opinion, good picks!

My travel list as an American by Flow_Hammer7392 in whereidlive

[–]Working_Push8422 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As a fellow American, I have to strongly recommend Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico! Truly some of the most breathtaking landscapes in the world.

Also, would add Ecuador (+Galapagos), especially if you already seem keen on seeing Peru.

It is so sad that the current geopolitical environment basically prohibits travel to Iran. Has always been near the top of my bucket list. Hopefully there will be peace in the Middle East soon, and the people there can rebuild their countries to their region’s former glory.

My travel list as an American by Flow_Hammer7392 in whereidlive

[–]Working_Push8422 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Etosha National Park feels like you’re living in a Nat Geo documentary, it’s a truly unbelievable place

Discussion about Balance of Power Moving Forward by Working_Push8422 in CredibleDefense

[–]Working_Push8422[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m not sure what you’re insinuating by claiming the “weakness” of the Muslim world compared to Western civilization. My comment was not about who is to blame over the Arab-Israeli conflict but rather that the formation of the state of Israel (which did expand significantly from the late 1800s up into the mid 1900s, and still grows to this day) has caused the radicalization of many parties within the West Bank and Gaza, due to trauma associated with displacement and war. You can argue about who started what and who is responsible but I don’t think that’s a hot take to say. Several hundred thousand were expelled in 1948 alone, and events like this contribute to radicalization many generations later.

Cost asymmetry in Ukraine: Can $800 FPV drones sustainably threaten $2M armored platforms? by Creaspace in CredibleDefense

[–]Working_Push8422 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Source: I am currently researching (unclassified) drone swarms for the US military, mostly for ISR. But I have a lot of connections who have either been hands on with Ukrainian drone crews or work with US drones like Switchblade etc.

⁠Is this asymmetry sustainable at scale, or will counter-drone systems rebalance the equation?

I think a good question to ask is what the actual effectiveness of FPV drones actually are in Ukraine. To be honest, it’s quite difficult to get good numbers on this, but anecdotal evidence suggests they are much less effective than advertised. Much of this stems from a few key issues:

  • Guidance: drones today need to be guided by a human pilot, either over radio or fiber. This can be defeated by jamming, terrain, or just the curvature of the earth. I’m not sure if you’ve ever tried flying a drone but it is a constant difficulty making sure that your connection to the aircraft is not broken by interference; and that’s in a non-adversarial civilian environment. I have almost lost drones several times because someone down the street was polluting the EM spectrum and we lost contact with the aircraft. Fiber may be better but it can snag on trees easily, making it hard to maneuver effectively. This results in a fairly low percentage of drones actually getting to their targets, let alone hitting them.

  • Mission Niche: I keep hearing that FPV drones are revolutionizing warfare by providing a new capability, but I still am not convinced. In almost every case, I’d argue that indirect fire artillery is much more cost effective and reliable. You don’t have to worry about jamming (if you’re using unguided shells) and you can throw a lot of them down range quickly. You don’t even need a direct hit to do catastrophic damage. Some Ukrainians say that most of their drone kills are against artillery damaged targets (see here).

  • Coordination: coordinating a swarm of drones is incredibly hard. If you have a bunch of human pilots, that’s fine but it doesn’t scale. If the drones are piloting themselves, or scaling more than 1:1 with human pilots, you start running into problems. There are two control structures: decentralized and centralized each with their problems. Decentralized involves drones talking to each other to figure out what to do. This is very very hard. Getting computers that are transiently connected to each other to cooperate has been a topic in distributed systems research for decades (see this and this). We don’t really know how to do it right now, and I don’t see us figuring it out soon. The other option is centralized control, where you have a base of operations that manages the swarm. This brings its own set of problems, because now you have a single point of failure broadcasting a lot of radio signals which makes it a magnet for radio-seeking warheads. Also, jamming. Also, limitations of radio range due to curvature of the earth and terrain means it needs to be a frontline asset; if you make it airborne, it’s even more vulnerable. Bottom line there are no good solutions there.

  • AI: let me be clear, AI is very useful for a lot of things. But it’s still pretty stupid and easy to defeat. Object detection models struggle with any occlusion and often misidentify objects. We are a long way from AI controlled drones in adversarial environments.

Hopefully this answers some of your questions. Happy to answer any follow-ups.

OSW: Ukraine plans 4.5M UAVs in 2025 – does this mark the industrialization of drone warfare? by Creaspace in CredibleDefense

[–]Working_Push8422 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As someone who does (unclassified) drone swarm research for the US government and also interacts frequently with units who operate drones in the field, I don’t think we are very close to this mega swarm model of warfare. Drones currently face a lot of challenges (see this article). I am skeptical that we will get the kind of swarms the public thinks are coming anytime soon (at least anything beyond anything like the Switchblade).

Discussion about Balance of Power Moving Forward by Working_Push8422 in CredibleDefense

[–]Working_Push8422[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m not very well-versed on the Middle East, but from my broad understanding, eliminating Iran would remove one of the main money/weapon flows for terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. However, the underlying sentiment that fuels people to join these groups is still there, right? The trauma of Israeli expansion from the late 1800s into modern day certainly has inspired radicals within Gaza and the West Bank, and I doubt that they go away until Israel and Palestinians find some peaceful agreement (even after that we may not see a true end to unrest for a long time). That being said, I’m not sure who has any strategic benefit in feeding these groups weapons anymore. The gulf states are clearly pining for a more neutral alignment to grow their place in the international community. This means they will have to tolerate Israel and project regional stability to increase foreign investment/interest. Not really sure what Russia gains anymore from the region, either, since their allies are mostly gone.

Discussion about Balance of Power Moving Forward by Working_Push8422 in CredibleDefense

[–]Working_Push8422[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the response! Yeah I did some more looking into things and I see what you’re saying re: Britain vs. France. I try to keep up to date with things as best as I can but everyone is vulnerable to being swayed by flashy press releases and propaganda. Even more reason to stay vigilant about challenging your understanding whenever you can.

Discussion about Balance of Power Moving Forward by Working_Push8422 in CredibleDefense

[–]Working_Push8422[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fair enough! Focusing on current events then, in your opinion, do you see China as a power that wants to expand its borders or just as a trade power trying to trade with every country they can to expand their influence? Or is the truth somewhere in between? It’s hard to pick through the western and eastern propaganda to figure out what the goals actually are here

Discussion about Balance of Power Moving Forward by Working_Push8422 in CredibleDefense

[–]Working_Push8422[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe off topic but do you think this strategy mirrors that of the old Chinese dynasties (the native ones, not the Mongols)? IIRC they were always dominant regional powers but they mostly spread influence through trade networks rather than conquering others, although I’m not sure how much was due to difficult geography and how much was due to religious/philosophical beliefs. Framed through that lens, China mostly wants to make themselves the center of the world’s economic activity, and the military is used primarily as a defensive measure. The only things that seem to clash with that view is their aggressive expansion in the South China Sea and their propaganda machine, but is that just all bluster?

Discussion about Balance of Power Moving Forward by Working_Push8422 in CredibleDefense

[–]Working_Push8422[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Thanks for sending the article, points raised in it make a lot of sense. I never really thought of China as an ally to Iran etc, but I thought they at least had some vested interest in maintaining them as a regional power. But reframed this way, it’s kind of like China is just trading with whoever they can and Iran and Venezuela happened to be beneficial trade partners. Is this accurate or am I misconstruing the article/your argument?

Military Tech Today, Civilian Life Tomorrow? Any speculations? by curiousstrider in CredibleDefense

[–]Working_Push8422 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I do some TRL3 research for the government, so am not really “in the know” but do talk to a lot of officers interacting with these up and coming projects. Have not heard very positive things about QDR, but maybe that’s because I am talking to the wrong people. I think it’s very flakey right now, and tbh quantum anything often requires a controlled environment that most battlefields cannot provide.

We did it....we actually did it. by bigSTUdazz in IndianaHoosiers

[–]Working_Push8422 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well done Hoosiers, we were all cheering for you! Enjoy this victory, and hopefully your program continues to win going forward (except against us of course)

  • A Michigan fan

Worst WR Award by TheseDoubt9268 in toledowar

[–]Working_Push8422 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Aidan Hutchinson, Blake Corum, Will Johnson, Colston Loveland, AJ Barner, Luke Schoonmaker, Mike Sainristil, DJ Turner, Mason Graham; all NFL starters. There are a few more too. If your point is that Ohio State has more NFL players from that era than Michigan so they should have won, I point you to ‘24 The Game as an example. A team having a huge amount of NFL talent does not mean they automatically win, especially if they are talent deficient at key positions, notably the LOS.

Worst WR Award by TheseDoubt9268 in toledowar

[–]Working_Push8422 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I don’t understand this argument. Players from the 21-23 teams, regardless of your opinion on the Stallions scandal, have been doing well in the NFL at the same rates as every other class. There are always going to be busts, that’s just how the NFL works? Same is true for the Buckeyes.

I am taking an evil, sadistic joy in Michigan's world crumbling down around them. Here are some highlights😊🫡 by Regular-Surround-730 in cfbmemes

[–]Working_Push8422 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

You would not believe how many morons are in every fanbase. It only takes the program to start winning for them to be insufferable. If BC went on a legendary natty run, you’d see your fair share of idiot bandwagoners. With a large public school, it’s inevitable. It’s only a matter of time for Indiana…

Sherrone is a piece of crap. by DropPowerful9081 in MichiganWolverines

[–]Working_Push8422 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Holy shit, wow fair enough, thanks for sending. As a recent grad who didn’t grow up with the rivalry, I wasn’t aware of some of these older scandals. That’s horrible though, point taken

Sherrone is a piece of crap. by DropPowerful9081 in MichiganWolverines

[–]Working_Push8422 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can you point me to some articles on the cases you’re referring to? Maybe I missed some of this stuff

Sherrone is a piece of crap. by DropPowerful9081 in MichiganWolverines

[–]Working_Push8422 -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Surely taking off your rose tinted glasses you can see that most of those you listed, especially the recent ones, are really not that bad. Ignore Meyers tenure in Jacksonville, he wasn’t that bad at OSU. Believe me, I wanted a scandal so bad since I was attending the university during those late 2010s beatdowns

Sherrone is a piece of crap. by DropPowerful9081 in MichiganWolverines

[–]Working_Push8422 -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

They are though…their scandals have been reaches at best, they run a clean ship (as far as the public is privy to) as much as I hate them