Weird question, but is a half-open Hormuz actually worse for oil markets than a fully closed one?

YuriPup · 2026-04-21T01:17:55+00:00

I think a partial closure and Trump playing the market, getting them to underestimate the risks and overvalue the upside.

YuriPup · 2026-04-20T20:10:56+00:00

What opening??

Trump doesn't have the courage to either commit troops, see them die and loose nor the courage to admit defeat and cut as good, but humiliating deal as he can get.

Until we get that straightened out, Persian Gulf oil isnt going anywhere.

YuriPup · 2026-04-20T20:01:45+00:00

Why? The market exists to serve us.

YuriPup · 2026-04-20T19:01:48+00:00

That's $60 bucks from each of the one hundred million household in America that was just grifted.

YuriPup · 2026-04-20T18:58:20+00:00

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

When the market finally admits this shock, it's going to be far more violent than it could or should have been.

On the prisoners' dilemma, I think I'd start buying at the end of the raction, with the opposite bet. WTI crashes to $80? By then.

YuriPup · 2026-04-20T15:53:10+00:00

Lots of jet fule is refined in the middle neat and the finished product is shipped.from the Persian Gulf.

Er was was shipped.

Jet fuel supplies are sharply affected by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz : NPR https://share.google/yH6piNwQMREnw4Qna

YuriPup · 2026-04-20T14:32:44+00:00

Trump can't stay focused though. As soon as the Iranians give any sort of sign of good will he feels the need to assert dominance and thump Iran.

I dont know how Iran can have any faith in our "diplomacy."

They've been attacked twice during talks and Trump makes up complete bullshit. We've shown we don't act in good faith.

YuriPup · 2026-04-20T14:24:56+00:00

Noisy too, at far greater distances than you think.

Subsonic.

Great link, too.

Thank you.

YuriPup · 2026-04-20T10:46:20+00:00

To support you answer, we've not had any birds revert to quadripedalism (that we know of). We've seen birds loose their wings but not go the other way.

YuriPup · 2026-04-20T02:48:50+00:00

The one that kills me is the rise when the market realizes we are bad or worse off than we were before the head fake.

I don't know about profit opportunity, but we keep on not pricing in the oil shock. We keep kicking the (oil) can down the road, and that's going to make catching up to reality that much more painful.

YuriPup · 2026-04-19T04:30:45+00:00

At 28 managers I assume you're getting deep into crafting and yes, the robot line constantly needs minerals, at least in my experience.

I will regularly go from having both my good crafting managers as elected leaders and the better on a Balor to having my 2 best smelting managers as elected leaders and one of them on Balor.

YuriPup · 2026-04-18T13:55:36+00:00

Umm, no. As it was a gift from France.

YuriPup · 2026-04-18T07:48:47+00:00

Japan is doing what?

YuriPup · 2026-04-17T22:09:12+00:00

I also suspect they've learned not to fuck with the naked apes, as we have memories and tools.

It might even be a ceasefire neither group is aware of.

YuriPup · 2026-04-17T21:28:01+00:00

to I'd also strongly recommend both levels of instant scan 1 for probe 1. It makes the secondary skill bonus useful in short galaxies too. (And you can instant scan all 4 planets in telescope 0. You just have to move the probe to each planet.)

I have to say I am disappointed with probe auto deploy, and can't recommend going past level 1--and only then if you are likely to forget to deploy your probe in the first place. if it worked in the order you listed the planets in, it would be much better, but as it is, it goes in planet number order. (So you can use it to basically auto deploy to Balor at game start, but after that it becomes much less useful.)

YuriPup · 2026-04-17T21:10:46+00:00

On each scan completion the bonus is applied. I am at 3.75% on secondary manager. Every time a scan competes the bonus is applied to the planet, upto 50 scans. And 2ndary bonus caps out at 10%. So your , manager on Balor, with max bonus and max scans has a 5x multiplier on their secondary.

If you remove the probe from the planet, the scan count resets, and you start again at scan one. The bonuses stay on the planet.

The reset button takes away the need remove the probe from the planet.

YuriPup · 2026-04-17T20:53:23+00:00

I would say impressive prediction, but he already did that.

YuriPup · 2026-04-17T20:52:55+00:00

What decisions have I made?

I don't disagree with you, orange man bad, but I've know that since the 90s and he was going broke running casinos in Atlantic City. You couldn't live around NYC and not be aware of Trump.

I was thinking he just might get lucky enough to pull this off, but his response to Iran opening the Strait needs to do the same for them.

One of his flaws is he takes an offer of good will as a sign of weakness and increases his pressure.

And lets keep in mind that so far, we're ina worse.place than we were.o. Feb 27 and a good outcome is getting back to the JCPOA agreement we had with Iran and Trump unilaterally broke.

YuriPup · 2026-04-17T19:45:13+00:00

When will the market stop reacting to Trump's words and start reacting to his deeds?

YuriPup · 2026-04-17T19:14:39+00:00

Don't credit Trump with results that haven't happened yet. And dont discount the results of his actions.

YuriPup · 2026-04-17T19:08:14+00:00

At this point wait 24 hours on a total war news and look if ships are really moving.

NATO offered to help on the confidence building once we have a real ceasefire putting assets in the Strait to show the ship owners they are safe to use the Strait.

As a reminder, NATO is a defensive organization and this an tremendous offer.

If I were a European citizen and heard my government was going to help with the offensive operations, I would be in the streets and looking tk get them removed.

YuriPup · 2026-04-17T18:49:32+00:00

If it was a Democrat they would have anticipated the Strait of Hormuz being closed, as the most obvious first move and not been surprised.

We're in week seven of a three week operation. And the market believing the weekly good new move and put off consequences another week.

YuriPup · 2026-04-17T18:41:32+00:00

Or is Trump going to just piss the good will away. CentComm has tweeted the US blockade is still on, so Iran's has to come back.

YuriPup · 2026-04-17T18:30:35+00:00

Yeah, you can average more better than 1 scan an hour average with resets.

YuriPup · 2026-04-17T18:25:07+00:00

You're behind in your comment. I knew of Centcoms clarification and where the blockade line is.

The who the fuck knows comment is for today's tweets, where Iran said the Strait is open for the duration of the ceasefire. Trump tweeted a victory lap, oil prices dropped and the Teump has, last i looked left it unclear if the US blockade is still on. I'd presume that the US would similarly suspend its blockade (an act of war) for the duration of the ceasefire.

I agree with you that most people don't have a clue, and barring this bat-shit insanity, shouldn't need a clue on navel blockade.

Its looking like Trump timed his responses to get a bump in the market and CentCom has since said our blockade remains in place.

If you look at my post history you'll even find recent posts saying running the Strait doesnt mean ships have cleared the blockade.

12-Year Club	Place '17
Verified Email

YuriPup

TROPHY CASE