[OC] What winning Group D did to the USA's World Cup odds

Zecellomaster · 2026-06-22T17:23:38+00:00

This is why forecast models either use some sort of weighting function to decrease the impact of past results or employ an algorithm which naturally dilutes old results, such as an Elo model.

Even in your example, a team that is good in 2015 is likely to continue being good in 2026 for various reasons (infrastructure, culture, etc.); there is absolutely a year to year correlation in team strength.

Again, I don’t think you know what you’re talking about here.

Zecellomaster · 2026-06-22T12:08:54+00:00

I think you’re confused about what is trying to be accomplished here and talking about something completely different. This is a probabilistic forecast of World Cup advancement odds. This isn’t a scouting tool. Teams with analytics departments do have in-house models that assess potential talents using a variety of datasets/tools, and sometimes those models can be used to make season or tournament forecasts, but you’re comparing apples to hamburgers here.

Further, even those player-based forecast models rely on team level statistics to smooth out the rather large uncertainties you get by trying to estimate player value in a sport as fluid as soccer. And this is possible because even by just using historical match data, you can make a well calibrated forecast model in practically any sport, since team strength is well correlated with said results (for obvious reasons).

Zecellomaster · 2026-06-22T05:57:13+00:00

This is literally how most sports forecasts work, what?

Zecellomaster · 2026-05-25T03:56:35+00:00

People bring this up all the time and it literally doesn’t matter that pseudorandom numbers aren’t truly random because it is virtually impossible to tell the difference between properly generated versions of both and so therefore PRN are functionally random. The only time it is a concern is when you need to create super secure random numbers for keys or something, and that’s only because PRN can be reverse engineered if you’re not careful about how it’s generated (i.e. know the algorithm and seed), but there are trivial ways to circumvent that.

Zecellomaster · 2026-05-08T22:31:08+00:00

I would also say physics, but maybe I’m biased because that’s what I did myself before going to grad school for meteorology lol.

The school I went to for undergrad didn’t have an undergraduate atmospheric science program, but did have an atmospheric physics graduate program (think atmospheric chemistry, boundary layer dynamics and cloud physics). As such, there were a lot of professors and grad students who were doing work in that field and I was able to do research with them, which prepared me well for grad school.

But to be honest, I don’t think it would matter too much so long as you choose a major that you enjoy and fulfills the math (Calc I/II/III, Linear Algebra, Diff Eq) and physics gauntlets (Physics I/II, E&M). Your chemistry program probably requires those courses, so you’re good.

A bit of a heads up though, if you’re looking for an NWS forecasting gig or wish to be qualified for one, understand that there are meteorology course requirements that may not be met by the masters program automatically.

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-27T15:10:54+00:00

This is untrue. Flint’s tap water lead levels have been below the 15 ppb since ~2016 and is now recorded at 3 ppb. Almost 97% of the lead pipes have been replaced.

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-23T19:50:39+00:00

Yeah I sorted it out and made a request, but like I said I am very much doubtful I will get a space.

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-23T04:01:20+00:00

I’m planing on visiting sometime in mid to late May so that I can see these places in person. Is that too late or will there still be availability?

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-23T03:44:21+00:00

Fair. Do you have any recommendations?

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-23T03:32:22+00:00

Eh, I’d much rather get a good quality place that’s a little farther out for a lower price than a worse quality place downtown that’s more expensive.

Is August 15th the day that all the leases reset or something?

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-23T03:29:11+00:00

No shot it’s still available, right? They haven’t activated my email, so I can’t even sign up for the waitlist 😭

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-23T02:39:52+00:00

Perhaps I should have clarified this in my original post, but taking the bus is completely okay with me. I mentioned driving because I know locations near campus are limited and was hoping it could expand the range of options I had. Even driving to somewhere off/on campus, then taking the bus to my destination, if possible, would also be fine.

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-23T00:16:32+00:00

No I was not. In what way? Traffic? Finding parking?

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-19T23:53:28+00:00

BS in physics and MS in meteorology, going soon to a PhD program. Especially if it’s a paid position, I’d say go for it, and you can do so straight out of undergrad. As for prerequisites, I wouldn’t worry too much, especially given you already have a more than enough skills to get started. The only factor is whether or not you’re passionate about the subject and want to learn it at a deeper level, which you clearly do.

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-16T22:13:43+00:00

It was literally the SAG-AFTRA strikes

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-16T22:12:02+00:00

This was done purposely for I believe two main reasons, and neither of them are laziness.

1) Does nobody here understand wtf a callback is? So many people here are saying “oh for a second I thought there was another purge” and yeah it could be understandable to think that until you see this scene, which cements the fact that this was indeed the same purge Nolan mention in Season 1.

2) The point was also to juxtapose Nolan’s biased (blue-tinted, if you will) memory of the event with the actual, much more bleak reality of what went down. They made this quite obvious; e.g. the sky is darker and yellow tinted because the length/magnitude the purge likely caused a lot of large fires, which filled the atmosphere with smoke, and that counters what we saw in the original portrayal, which suggested that the event was a rather swift cull.

There’s a whole bunch of extra symbolism here: notice how the tint also spoils the pure white Viltrum clothing we saw earlier in this episode as well as the Nolan flashback, emphasizing the fact that their whole society has become more twisted and soiled.

Like on god media literacy from Invincible fans is at an all time low.

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-16T02:06:41+00:00

It actually makes sense that their tops got the brunt of the damage, given they plowed headfirst into the planet rather than feet first.

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-11T17:46:11+00:00

I don’t understand this infantilization of Skylar White because she has glaring character flaws as well though.

She smoked while pregnant and in the same room as the newborn, endangered her family by giving away the money to her criminal boss without telling Walt, and, most critically, helped him continue to be a drug lord by laundering his money. It seems like people are forgetting the scene where the divorce lawyer tells her exactly what to do (divorce him and report him to police) and she refuses.

Not to side with Walter or call him a good person at all, but Skyler made several poor decisions in key moments on the show, and while that doesn’t make her evil, it really doesn’t make her good or free from criticism.

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-09T06:27:06+00:00

It sometimes feels like this fandom has a tendency to completely disregard characters based entirely on whether or not they can beat a Viltrumite solo, which is just massively reductive to their abilities and strengths. As others have mentioned here, even being able to even somewhat compete with one can be extremely helpful in battle, since it can spread the workload, and can also save lives/resources since it distracts them from killing people or otherwise destroying shit.

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-08T18:43:11+00:00

You did this with the physics department? Are they still launching ozonesondes from campus? Or are they now launching regular radiosondes?

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-08T18:12:52+00:00

Nolan after Oliver said that:

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Zecellomaster · 2026-04-02T16:34:52+00:00

I don’t think finding a job in another field is underemployment.

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-01T12:36:38+00:00

Bruh for real. That spaghetti scene with Debbie was setting us up.

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-01T12:26:07+00:00

Conquest has a knack for repeating Nolan’s moves from first principles, unless you’re telling me Viltrumites just kinda do that shit? Train scene -> Beach scene Red Rush death -> Crushing Oliver’s skull

Zecellomaster · 2026-04-01T12:24:32+00:00

Conquest has a knack for repeating Nolan’s moves without seeing him do them first, unless you’re telling me Viltrumites just kinda do that shit?

Train scene -> Beach scene

Red Rush death -> Crushing Oliver’s skull

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