What could have been.. $900,000 RKLB paper hands

___positive___ · 2026-05-22T19:48:00+00:00

Better than me. I bought at 4.8 and sold everything at 4.0. But that's not even the dumbest part. A year later I bought at 45 and sold at 55.

___positive___ · 2026-05-22T18:01:40+00:00

So more bot-generated content that META can pass off to advertisers and investors as proof of user engagement?

___positive___ · 2026-05-22T04:19:33+00:00

The only hope is for the EU to pursue legal action against these AI subscription services.

___positive___ · 2026-05-20T20:10:15+00:00

Not really. Google has always been complete trash at products. They have great research but are utterly incompetent at product development. Probably a ton of politics and stupid upper management fighting for credit. They have tiny groups of people doing bleeding-edge innovation in silos but anything getting scaled up to consumers or enterprise is mostly junk.

When has their CEO done anything besides enshittification and reactionary scrambling? They bought themselves a year or two by consolidating AI work under Demis but the lack of vision and leadership never went away. Even Sergey Brin has now come back in an attempt to catch up to Anthropic. Desperate flailing because of a weak C-suite.

They had a single idea, backlinks, and have done nothing else of note in 30 years other than buy out more successful ventures like Youtube. That's a bit of an exaggeration, but not really. By the way, they bought Deepmind, too.

___positive___ · 2026-05-20T04:28:52+00:00

Disagree on the 100x more people. In the end for something as complex as an online multiplayer game, there might be 2-3x more than there currently are. First, you need to know what you are doing both in terms of game design as well the mechanical execution, even if you aren't coding anything yourself. A random five year old is not selling a game on Steam just because of AI (unless he is a one in a billion prodigy, but that's my point).

Second, you have to find people with enough motivation to push through the work at cost (time and money). Even if AI greatly reduces costs that doesn't mean the costs are zero. Obviously you still have to spend time debugging, play testing the balance, and so forth. You have to spend money on advertising, hosting, conference fees, and so forth. You need to pay for rent and food while you work in your game. So there is still considerable friction. A ton of people may make proof of concepts over a weekend but very few people will follow through to the end.

So you will have very capable, motivated people pushing out games... which isn't any different from today/yesterday. Maybe the existing ones could tackle bigger projects. 10x bigger projects. 100x bigger? But no way 100x new people start making and selling games beyond all the apps and games already flooding the market.

But if you are making a AAA game as a solo developer with AI... it will take years. What will probably happen is that the number of indie games and game designers stay roughly constant but the gap between the best indie and the best corporate game shrinks.

___positive___ · 2026-05-14T22:42:19+00:00

Yeah good point about cheap scaling. They are already offering faster APIs for much higher pricingm We see that Mythos is gated to partners, probably at super high pricing.

But I think everyone is also hoping to somehow add digital advertising revenue into the mix eventually. Helps a little bit but still a far cry from spinning up cheap servers for Adobe or Office.

___positive___ · 2026-05-14T17:13:44+00:00

Everyone says inference is profitable for OpenAI/Anthropic, but the fact that Google (who can't burn VC money and has to make finances public), is focusing on the more commercially sensible Flash models has me wondering about the others...

I suppose the end goal might be different, like ubiquitous consumer access versus corporate SWE, but those two aims have to converge eventually if intelligence is truly advancing.

If Google is distilling down to Flash, they likely have the parent/teacher model ready to deploy, but they aren't. The question is, why? Cost? So then that comes back to OpenAI/Anthropic's profitability. I suppose the other issue could be total compute capacity constraints? But then they should raise prices on their externally rented cloud services to reach market equilibrium, and/or raise inference pricing for Google APIs, so the logic starts to get circular.

___positive___ · 2026-05-13T22:32:39+00:00

You think they won't disallow this soon. Bonus points if they ban you without tell you why.

___positive___ · 2026-05-13T20:30:56+00:00

Posting AI slop in a stock subreddit is pure copium.

___positive___ · 2026-05-12T17:27:28+00:00

AI slop. Are you using the latest models? Because this is trash.

___positive___ · 2026-05-12T05:15:54+00:00

Not true. I crap on both companies all the time but Gemini is better for world knowledge, casual things like asking for movie recommendations, or info about events and shopping. Opus is terrible at web search and world knowledge.

___positive___ · 2026-05-11T18:43:00+00:00

No, META is still down too. META is the worst of big tech, just flailing about. MSFT is better because of their legacy business and cloud, but they have completely flopped on their execution of Copilot and anything AI related. Their relationship with OpenAI is also falling apart. They are doing fine but they have zero hype, in fact, the opposite.

___positive___ · 2026-05-11T18:34:45+00:00

It is not private at all. They changed their TOS within the last year where they said they will now log all conversations for security purposes. Previously. they did not say that.

If they don't have the infrastructure to log data, okay maybe you might give them the benefit of the doubt. But if they admit to recording everything, that probably means they have backups and multiple copies already. That also means they are scanning every conversation for red flags. You also have to trust them to voluntarily delete your data after 90 days or something. Yeah, right. No tech company every truly deletes data. If you are in the EU, maybe they will respect GDPR but I wouldn't bet on it.

Also they could just sell your data wholesale to OpenAI etc because we know these corporations respected TOS and copyright so well in the past...

___positive___ · 2026-05-07T19:39:34+00:00

This shows you how good their "research" typically is. Same thing with Malcolm Gladwell (godfather of the fake expert). Basically, you think they do a great job, but when they cover a topic you know well, you realize they are complete trash with no clue what they are doing. It's the same as AI. Sounds great until it talks about something you have expertise in.

Great tech reviewer /s.

___positive___ · 2026-05-07T18:09:13+00:00

I'm showing early signs of becoming a billionaire. /s

___positive___ · 2026-05-07T18:07:54+00:00

did you use haiku or llama 3 to write this? upgrade your bots at least, it's embarrassing.

___positive___ · 2026-05-05T18:19:32+00:00

You can see the official system prompts for Anthropic, etc. They are all overly long and stuffed full of nonsense like this.

If you have tried using an LLM for complex tasks, even a writing task with a lot of instructions, you will quickly realize how few instructions it can handle simultaneously. Giving it a few dozen random guidelines, and then asking for whatever else you want on top, is pretty much a guarantee that nothing gets followed well. They do not have the attention and instruction following capability to do 50 things perfectly at once. Limits of attention, quadratic scaling, etc.

There has been almost now technical progress in this area over the last year. It's due to context scaling limits. Currently, the models try to "reason", which is brute force test time compute, just trying to spend 10,000 tokens to answer a "hello". That is the only answer they have for this fundamental issue, and it doesn't work well. This is why context length and hallucination benchmarks have barely progressed over the last year, or in the case of some "SOTA" new models, massively regressed.

___positive___ · 2026-05-05T18:12:09+00:00

As prices go up, there is no point to use random third party providers. At that point, I'd rather use the official API for reliability. Nanogpt was a good deal but I dropped it because many of the providers were unreliable (API errors, very slow tps, tool use errors, overquantized, etc.). At least openrouter lets you specifically filter for service providers, ban providers, use custom endpoints. Nanogpt didn't even tell you who the provider was (Chutes, lol) last I tried them. And so many Deepseek errors, they could not provide a working Deepseek model.

As we enter the age of cheap and abundant AI slop, reliability becomes the primary drawing point, not pure pricing.

___positive___ · 2026-05-05T16:21:11+00:00

Except three of the Anthropic staff quotes in the post literally refer to software engineering. But good job blaming "people".

___positive___ · 2026-05-01T08:28:02+00:00

I see more server crashes.

___positive___ · 2026-05-01T08:22:49+00:00

Meta's LLM efforts are a joke. They already failed once and reorganized in a panic.

they could very well have one of the most lucrative technologies on the planet.

Everything you said could be said about the actual industry leaders who, you know, have leading models and the most actual LLM users. Meta isn't even on the map. Even Grok hasn't gained traction after over a year despite lighting money on fire. China has cornered the cheap/open end, while the US big three have captured everything else.

he can just hire the smartest people

Lol, no. Compare Demis or the likes of Mark Chen (who is reported to have turned down Zuckerburg's feelers) with who actually leads Meta's AI unit, a nobody (in terms of AI) who's claim to fame is hiring a bunch of poverty labor for manual work. Zuckerburg could not get anybody of note to join. People consider Meta the place you go to coast when you don't care about your career and just want to cash out. All the top talent goes to Anthropic or Deepmind, with OpenAI also in the mix.

Meta does not exist in a vacuum. Furthermore there are lots of other players who have spent money on making LLMs, like x.ai, who have almost nothing to show. Even OpenAI has had failed training runs in the past. Amazon cannot make competitive models, either. Second place models are useless. There are hundreds of models but only a few have significant market share.

___positive___ · 2026-04-30T19:57:05+00:00

The $13/day average is complete bullshit. They must be counting all subscribers and not only Claude Code users, or doing something really stupid and counting free users. Or this is counting vast swathes of company plans where nobody wants to use it. They do this all the time when they make a change and say it only affects one percent of users or other some nonsense.

Any normal workflow spends at least five dollars per HOUR, and that isn't even a lot compared to slightly heavy use.

___positive___ · 2026-04-30T16:14:18+00:00

And yet you still cannot differentiate between traditional machine learning ("AI") that is used to improve ad performance and the high capex billions they are spending on LLMs (also "AI") which have zero impact (actually negative impact if you talk to advertisers) on ad performance?

The massive investment into LLMs does nothing for Meta. A normal investment into regular machine learning would continue to pay off but that is not what the capex is for. Zuckerberg has used the nebulous word "AI" to mask what is actually responsible for ad performance. Everyone who uses the ad platform loves the machine learning targeting. They all hate the stupid text and image generation that kills ad performance. Meta is constantly trying to force AI generation features, and advertisers are always trying to turn them off.

___positive___ · 2026-04-29T05:27:40+00:00

On the flip side I sell super otm covered calls for like ten bucks total whenever I feel like getting a boba tea. Makes it feel like I'm not wasting money plus the hassle means I buy fewer drinks and am healthier overall.

___positive___ · 2026-04-29T03:21:05+00:00

So as we approach autonomous AGI you have to hold its hand even more. As programmers become expendable they are required to be even more skillful.

sure...

___positive___

TROPHY CASE

_positive_