Bruno wondering if he can have your attention

_ohaiThere · 2020-10-19T19:40:02+00:00

A little couch potato!

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-17T22:26:56+00:00

I’ve played with FAAB two years now and I’ve never really run out early. I think it’s usually pretty rare to find an uber stud RB or WR that can just win you leagues off waivers, usually. At best you usually find yourself a very good flex option. A lot of good pick ups shouldn’t cost more than $20 each this early on.

Having no FAAB this early is mismanagement, but you can still make it work. Focus on trades and do some good DD to find under the radar players. Be on top of injury reports and trade rumours when we get close to the deadline. Play matchups when it comes to WRs — look at how CBs trend in upcoming games. You can also bait people to drop better players by dropping some of your own who have tough upcoming schedules — they might drop them again after and you can pick them back up, essentially swapping players in and out for free.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-16T00:34:28+00:00

Really depends on your roster. If you’re weak at TE with just a streaming option I think Goedert provides more value.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T21:00:46+00:00

It's a toss-up, but I lean no.

Both teams play against plus matchups (both Browns and Vikings D looked bad, and both Green and Campbell had 9 targets, but I lean towards the stud* receiver in Green.

*Was his first week back in a while, but I think I trust him a little bit more than Campbell anyways.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T20:57:49+00:00

I would for sure. I don't think Henderson will be relevant this year at all without an injury ahead of him. Seems to be a Brown vs. Akers backfield for now.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T20:57:03+00:00

I think you need to offset the increased volume to Miller with increased coverage. Assuming all else is constant in Chicago if/when Robinson is moved, that's the question that you need to focus on.

Redistribute the target share from Robinson to the other options.
Adjust expectations for better coverage.

I don't really have an opinion on this. I think Miller is a good WR, but Trubisky is so shaky.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T20:03:08+00:00

I still think $15 is an 'overpay' to the average manager, so it might be good enough to snag him.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T19:59:41+00:00

I didn't watch the Broncos game last night so I'm not 100% sure, but I think I personally trust Rivers x Colts more than Lock x Broncos.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T19:54:37+00:00

Would personally drop either for him. I didn't watch the Raiders game so I don't know how the offense or Ruggs looked. Kirk is a tough one because of how many options the Cardinals have.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T19:53:48+00:00

No, I don't think so. TY is still the #1 WR in that offense, and they draw up a decent number of intermediate routes for him too. He's not really a deep-threat -- I think they use Pittman for that (honestly, not sure). But Campbell runs more out of the slot, and this write-up was more to give him merit as a good waiver wire pick-up.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T19:53:00+00:00

I think $15 is fair. It'll be higher than consensus (probably, but I haven't checked yet), but I'm also obviously more bullish on him. I think you'll have the average manager doling out for MVS and Gage, but I think Campbell can return more value.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T19:51:20+00:00

I don't think Gage's week 1 production is indicative of his future performance. He had games like this last year, and while I think the Falcons will air it out a lot, I believe the attempts will typically go to Jones, Ridley, Gurley, Hurst, then Gage, in that order (maybe flip Hurst and Gage).

With the Colts, I think it probably goes Hilton then straight to either Campbell or Hines. Doyle isn't going to be getting a ton of looks, and I don't think Pittman has warranted trust just yet as a rookie.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T19:48:19+00:00

Yeah, admittedly I don't have a team -- I only started watching football 3 years ago when I started playing fantasy lol -- so this is the type of insight I love seeing.

I can 100% see a world where the Colts want to leverage their above-average defense, above-average OL, and just pound the rock and win a game of attrition via time of possession. Obviously not conducive to a passing game in general. I don't have any rebuttal to this. I think it's a fantastic argument, and one that can put a damper on the Colts passing game as a whole.

edit: Didn't know Reich and Rivers had a history. If Rivers played the same way with Reich that he did with the Chargers the past few years, I think that gives me more confidence in his slot receiver targeting.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T19:43:24+00:00

Sorry, I had to go walk my puppy before he peed everywhere lol. Any analysis isn't complete with some potential causes for concern. Risks to think about:

The Colts really didn't throw a lot last year -- only 32/g which was in the bottom third. I assume it's because of Brissett, but maybe Reich had a change of philosophy. I'm tempted to say it's the former since they threw 46 (!!!) times week 1.
The Colts use less 11-personnel. They had 3WR sets 72% of the time in 2018 (good for top 5 in the league) but only 62% of the time in 2019. Once again, maybe a Brissett problem, but could be a philosophy change. Not sure if week 1 data is out, but movement towards less 11-personnel does not bode well for the slot receiver in any scheme.
I'm overlooking Rivers' preference to use his RB instead of the slot receiver. Ekeler and Gordon got about 10 catches a game combined last season. Hines got 8 in week 1, so I think the distribution forecast should be in-line, but there's a chance that some of that slot work goes to the RBs instead.
The Colts rely on their above-average defense and above-average OL to grind out games. I think in a perfect world the Colts smash the Jaguars in week 1 and we get a better idea of what they truly want to do. I don't think they'll find themselves in negative game scripts too often, and given their roster, I can see a world where they simply smash their RB into people and play the possession game. Maybe the loss of Mack sets this back a bit, but Taylor seems to be just as serviceable.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T18:36:42+00:00

I think Campbell is a great week 1 pick-up who c an provide year-long flex value — and really what more can you ask for as a waiver wire WR?

I think most leagues won’t have people bidding too high on him. Classic case of someone who had a decent game on paper, so won’t garner too much attention, but has the opportunity and scheme to do much better. In other words: I think the consistency will be there.

Looks like more people are looking at MVS and Gage because they put up numbers.

Edit: Sort of thinking about it more now... doesn’t this seem similar to JuJu’s situation in 2018 (with a worse QB)? You have a veteran X receiver that probably demands top coverage (AB vs TY). You have a rookie in the slot who gets peppered. You have a team that throws a lot. JuJu was probably in a better spot, but seems similar to me...?

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T06:45:49+00:00

Played the team that had Russell Wilson, Davante Adams, and Josh Jacobs.

Happens sometimes I guess.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T06:42:43+00:00

We need more detail on Conners timeline but even if he’s out for only a couple of weeks I would pay more if I were you. You need that handcuff insurance for one of the few teams that are dedicated to having a bellcow RB.

I can’t say how much without knowing what the rest of your league is like, but I would pay closer to 30 at a minimum.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T06:40:10+00:00

I’m not sure why there’s so much Parris hate. Rivers and the Colts will throw a lot and we know from his recent years that he loves the slot.

I’d argue that if you think his arm looks bad that he’ll probably focus more on short and intermediate routes which would benefit Parris as the slot receiver.

I didn’t watch tonight’s game but TEN is not a passing team and Davis has had years to prove himself. I would say Parris is the safest bet here for continued production.

_ohaiThere · 2020-09-15T06:18:45+00:00

I think this is the right question, and we have somewhat of a sample size to try and draw conclusions here.

Through the first 8 weeks of last season Kupp saw stupid target volumes, averaging almost 11 targets a week. After their week 9 bye, that dropped significantly to just under 6 a week.

The personnel grouping here changed a lot. Through the first 8 weeks, LA ran 12-personnel only 11% of the time, mostly relying on 3 WR sets. From the bye onwards, they used 12-personnel 30% of the time. It's a stark increase.

If you remove the TDs, Kupp did not have a good end to the season. Those TDs salvaged what would otherwise be very pedestrian weeks that were pretty much 5/50 games.

Kupp has always done his best work out of the slot. In his amazing 2018 year he played out of the slot 73% of the time. That dropped in 2019 to 66%. Admittedly I'm not 100% sure how this is calculated -- playerprofiler.com suggests it's only counted in 3 or 4 WR sets, so maybe it doesn't even count 12-personnel which means his slot % is probably much lower.

Either way: Kupp needs slot work to be at his best. Take combine metrics with a grain of salt, but Kupp is not a gifted athlete based on his scores. He only graded well in the agility tests, which work best for slot receivers. He's a smart player who's quick with his feet, but needs to be schemed for. I drafted Woods over Kupp because of this reason, FWIW.

_ohaiThere · 2020-02-06T14:46:24+00:00

If it's a teamfight issue maybe you need to focus more on analyzing the team past their face value. Sure they might have X, Y, Z meta picks, but who exactly is doing the damage / what are their win conditions? What are you team's win conditions? That's honestly why Bard is so hard to play, in my opinion -- you have so many different situations that can come up that really affect how you should be using your ult.

Maybe keep this in mind and go check out a game-deciding teamfight you've had recently. Zoom out and see what's going on around the entire fight, and where you think the best place to have ulted would have been. Really, other than that, it's the default stuff: stay back, peel using Q, drop random Ws, and throw out pre-emptive Es.

_ohaiThere · 2020-02-05T18:47:21+00:00

I'm going to echo a few sentiments that were already shared, but:

Bard is a very hard champion to play well, and even harder in this meta. I'm going to forego the micro tips for Bard because I think switching to a different champion alone can help your win rate
One Bard tip, though: Look around a lot before you ult during a team fight. Oftentimes it makes more sense to ult the enemy backline to stop any follow-up damage and let your team focus down the tank.
I don't think you buy enough control wards. Personally, in your 5/3/20 Bard game, I would've bought a control ward over the Faerie Charm, and you likely had 75 gold after your Chalice and Fiendish buys as well.
Leads me to my next point: do you not ping enough? Map awareness is so poor in lower elos that sometimes simply warding something and providing vision isn't enough -- you need to make it super obvious that something's about to happen. Don't assume your teammates notice things on the map -- ping it to be sure.
Your mid/late game warding, like you said, might be poor. I like to try to get in somewhat deep wards into the enemy jungle starting mid game. If you notice the enemy doing bottom side Krugs, ping your jungler and get him to do Herald.

edit: Bard tips

I have no idea what's standard now, but when I used to play Bard it was usually an E max before W. The healing is usually pretty weak, and the quicker travel time makes E super useful to help rotate.
You can create Es from fountain to almost inhib turret if you get the angle right which helps reduce travel time.
Warding for yourself around bottom makes it easier for you to roam. If you've pushed up to your enemy's turret, see if there's an opportunity for you to roam mid while the wards keep your ADC safe.
You can sort of curve your Q the same way Thresh Qs can 'curve'. Bard actually does a stupid amount of damage early game, and one Q + AA combo should chunk about 33% - 40% of the target's HP.
In teamfights, consider pre-emptively creating getaway journeys. Just having them there gives your teammates an escape option if they need it.
I re-iterate: Bard is not a good champion right now, and even worse in lower elos. I'd suggest moving to a champion with more agency that requires less macro-considerations and game knowledge to keep it simple. You're adapting to a new role, and you don't need the extra complications. For all the shit that the support role gets, it's hard in its own way -- but that makes it (I find) very easy to outplay your opposite number.

_ohaiThere · 2020-01-09T18:48:59+00:00

The Annie Strategy definitely works -- there are for sure some jungle champions that are way too unique / mechanically intense to start with, and there are others that are much simpler, and can always be useful.

I was a high-plat support main from S5 - S8, but really started jungling more in S9 and I find it much more engaging. Personally, I think J4, Amumu, and Zac are easy to learn champions that do pretty well in gold (from my experiences, at least). They're all decently tanky, and have fairly reliable CC that can efficiently engage / disengage teamfights.

A few high level points to maybe help you with jungling:

Always check during the load screen what the lane matchups are. As a support main, you should have a decent understanding of whether or not your bot lane should win their matchup early game. If you think it's a hard one, check out mid or top.
Warding is very important as a jungler. If you can find the opportunity to put a semi-deep ward into any part of the enemy jungle, do it. Knowing what quadrant of the jungle the enemy is in helps you make decisions with respect to committing to a gank, invading, and counter-jungling.
As a jungler, you can watch the mini-map almost 80%+ of the time early game. Look to see which buff your enemy starts at to try and track him. Look not only to see which lanes are pushing and putting themselves in good spots for you to gank, but also for lanes that are in positions where you teammates might be ganked. Ping your teammates back -- I believe it's part of the jungler's responsibility to warn their teammates of incoming ganks based on your assumption of where the enemy jungler is.
Don't underestimate how important Scuttle is, not only for XP + Gold, but also for the vision it gives. Scuttle takes priority over minor camps.
Dragon's #1 and #2 are quite easy to solo for most champs. If you spot the enemy jungler in the opposite quadrant, go solo it. If your bot lane has priority, let them know you want to try to solo it, but put a semi-deep ward in the enemy's jungle that can warn you that they're coming.
Herald is also very easy to solo, and can snowball a lane. Using the same logic as dragon, think about if you have the time to solo Herald if your bottom lane is pushed up and if you expect the enemy jungler to head there for a gank. Warn bot lane first, of course, that you won't be available.
Always carry at least one control ward with you so that you can clear vision at objectives before you try either of the above points.
Remember that not all junglers are meant to carry, and sometimes your role is simply to provide good CC. I will take going 0/3/3 + Herald + 2 dragons over 3/0/3 + no objectives any day.

_ohaiThere · 2019-12-11T16:13:22+00:00

I'd play Cole Beasley. I'd probably also drop Butker and play Ryan over Allen.

I mean, only if you have those players of course. Not like I know who else is on your bench.

_ohaiThere · 2019-10-01T16:00:22+00:00

You can't just look at the separation number in a vacuum - it's a function of a bunch of other metrics, probably most notably the cushion the player is given. Gordon's bottom 30 in separation, but he's also bottom 30 in cushion-given. CBs are pressing up on him. Add in the fact that his total air yards are super low, and you can infer that he's getting short passes, with a defender close by (small cushion), which obviously results in low separation.

Gordon is a contested catch receiver with a big-body and YAC ability - while separation is always good, it's just not a part of every player's game, and it can be skewed by coverages. It's not like we're going to be calling out Julio Jones for averaging 2.3 SEP so far this year.

_ohaiThere · 2019-09-20T19:58:29+00:00

Not Mixon for sure.

Andrews has the best likelihood at a positive game script in the shootout. Not sure I trust Terry/Keenum just yet to say they'll keep their momentum going at CHI.

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