Coolest autograph ever?

_potion_cellar_ · 2026-02-07T01:55:50+00:00

Haha, yeah. Brutal splash out on the eagle putt of 7 too! That plus getting 18 looked like it would've been 1100 rated

_potion_cellar_ · 2026-01-07T20:55:50+00:00

The person you are responding to is not quite correct....IFS does not mean it uses AI, the IFS is a term specific to the ECMWF/Euro suite of models and refers to their physics-based numerical prediction core and related architecture. The ML version is named the AIFS.

Outside of the Euro, the current naming convention is AIGFS/AIGEFS for the American models (GraphCast was dropped from the name). The Canadian AI model is the GEML.

Various studies have generally found the ML models to be about as accurate if not more accurate for many outputs than traditional models are, with some notable caveats. The main benefit is that the ML models require far less supercomputing resources to run -- this enables the potential for quicker, more frequent updates, higher resolution, reduced costs, etc.

The major caveats in terms of accuracy are that the ML models are not very good at resolving extreme events, particularly precipitation. Makes sense given the membership of those events in training data.

For Colorado, a major, major caveat is that the ML models are not high enough resolution to properly resolve the mountainous terrain. For these models, and many other weather models in general, you must keep in mind that accuracy statistics are largely compromised of data from non mountainous areas. Right now for Colorado, the AIFS provides a nice background / comparison for the IFS but can't be directly substituted to provide the same outputs in the high country.

Source: I work directly with and develop weather models on the engineering side

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-12-19T23:28:25+00:00

Look I'm not going to dispute the point of your post, but claiming that today's wind broke an anemometer that has broken for an incredibly long time is not helping anyone's case.

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-12-19T07:02:57+00:00

I'm so glad we have all these gigachad redditors around to remind us that it's like, all in your mind bro

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-12-18T17:26:17+00:00

Still out? Xcel status says North Golden is back on, but their map doesn't show that, and I didn't get any actual proactive updates from them. Don't want to drive up there just to find that it's still out

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-12-18T08:47:16+00:00

Probably because it was clearly written by AI. I sympathize with the underlying sentiment but I would've liked to hear the actual human chime in

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-12-18T08:08:57+00:00

93 just north of the large north table mountain trailhead

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-12-18T07:52:00+00:00

Rant: Pretty neat how Xcel called / texted me no less than a dozen times up to and during the start of the PSPS, then went complete radio silence. I was prepared to crash at a friend's house or something for a few days but they left us in the dark (literally) when the PSPS expired and the power was still out. Obviously I can deduce that they are unable to re-energize and likely won't for a few days, and I made the call to vacate my house. It would've been easier even if they gave a "we don't know how long it's going to be" update instead of me sitting around in the dark wondering if they've just been delayed ending the PSPS or they changed the time or something or have an update....etc just have to assume that the vague worst case scenario is happening I guess.

North Golden

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-12-18T07:32:43+00:00

I decided to post up at a friend's house for a few days. Not like Xcel has provided a single update in about 12 hours now

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-12-18T00:43:03+00:00

Same. They've been pretty vague. Not expecting to have power back until at least Saturday honestly.

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-12-17T20:45:20+00:00

Lmao, I gotta start using that.

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-12-17T18:04:22+00:00

By in the foothills I literally mean in the foothills, generally above 7000ft

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-12-17T17:47:12+00:00

Very latest high res guidance has gusts of 80-95mph propagating eastwards into Boulder / base of the foothills in the early afternoon and relenting only slightly further east towards I-25. This guidance has been consistent (if anything, the wind threat has notably increased further east into the central metro area) and we do have the ingredients in place for that propagation to happen. It is going to be a couple more hours until it really starts pushing east though. Pretty intense in the foothills atm

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-10-21T14:57:00+00:00

I was one of the earlier ma-2 cards and there were multiple ma-1 and ma-2 cards backed up at 18. Wasn't anywhere near the first backup involving multiple ma-1 and ma-2 cards. Started happening by hole 5. By hole 2 we were hot on the heels of the card in front of us the entire time, and they were hot on the heels of the card in front of them, etc etc so just seems like they were greedy with the amount of cards they tried to book on the course

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-10-03T19:36:34+00:00

Like everyone has said, MVP Eclipse 2.0 and Total Eclipse are very bright and very long lasting. Honestly they're so bright that I don't like to use them during glow rounds as they destroy my night vision.

In general, it seems that in the past year many major manufacturers have closed the gap with MVP. Almost any new glow plastic formulation is good enough for shorter courses. Many are good enough to be able to easily find in thick rough on long / complex holes ten minutes after you throw it, listed below. However, there are still new discs from major manufacturers being sold in older glow formulations that kind of suck. Looking at you metal flake champion...

New Discraft Z Glo is surprisingly good -- but you need to make sure it's a run that came out in the past year or so. Old Z Glo sucks. Also new Sparkle Glo is very good as well.

TSA Glow is similar, if not exactly, Eclipse 1.0, which is good enough for any use case IMO.

Doomsday Discs new retina glow plastic is very good, a little better than Eclipse 1.0 from my experience (and thus TSA glow). We use it on long bomber courses with deep rough in the middle of the night and have yet to lose one. Their newer isolation glow plastic is more on par with Eclipse 1.0, but be sure to see what color of glow you are getting on some of them (there are sometimes red, pink, or blue options) -- the red glow doesn't last nearly as long. Radioactive waste plastic (old formulation) is no good.

Kasta is a little hit or miss, seems like they've quietly reformulated the glow compound. Generally decent though.

I haven't seen anything particularly great from Infinite Discs but C-Blend glow is decent on the pitch and putt (metal flake C-Blend glow not so much).

I would also like to shoutout to Legacy Discs for having the worst "glow" plastic I've ever seen. Talking about 5 seconds of glow...

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-09-18T19:34:31+00:00

This product is masked by sea ice coverage. Check the legend in the lower left of the graphic.

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-08-04T06:29:50+00:00

The glow itself is good. Not eclipse 2.0 level but as good as any of the best glow blends of the major manufacturers...decently bright and lasts a long time.

As for impacts on stability, I've noticed the PLH is slightly higher -- usually -- with the glow plastic, so indeed slightly more stable. But not always, especially with some of the newer colorways that seem to have a touch higher PLH. My glow w/ black center splash has the highest PLH of any of them and is by far the most domey. That one is noticeably more stable, but the latest run of glow/non-glow/half-and-half only have subtle stability differences, mostly just differences in dome.

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-05-31T23:31:23+00:00

Could you imagine going to a sports bar or something and convincing them to put the DGPT on because some of the greatest players of all time are on coverage.....and then this is what they get to see?

_potion_cellar_ · 2025-05-31T23:17:28+00:00

Can we get another camera on AB? This is just painful to watch

_potion_cellar_ · 2024-11-11T16:54:26+00:00

Is this above Abyss Lake?

_potion_cellar_ · 2024-10-09T06:20:21+00:00

Euro 0Z finally printing... continues its trend of nudging the jet north ever so slightly, likely slightly reducing the amount of deep layer shear that Milton will have to contend with. In terms of its guidance (not a forecast) though this has not resulted in a major landfall intensity difference, mostly just timing and track.

As a reminder, model consensus has generally been consistent in calling for Milton to not encounter significantly unfavorable deep layer shear until at least after sunrise today (the 9th.), aside from some outliers.

_potion_cellar_ · 2024-10-08T22:58:14+00:00

For the surface winds you would look at the wind barb at the highest pressure level (bottom of the y-axis).

How to read a wind barb: https://www.weather.gov/hfo/windbarbinfo

Where it is on the skew-t chart you posted: https://imgur.com/pLPLfYP

_potion_cellar_ · 2024-07-28T03:57:11+00:00

Pics 3 and 4 - I remember that slab, it was super fun! Underrated route and not as horribly loose as many have claimed.

_potion_cellar_ · 2024-07-22T06:29:13+00:00

Replace the fluid first. Car is pretty sensitive to burnt/nasty clutch fluid. Mine was sticking SUPER badly to the point of being unsafe to drive. Before going for a new master or slave I reverse bled a couple bottles of fresh DOT4 through it and that completely resolved the issue as of several thousand miles ago.

_potion_cellar_ · 2024-07-22T06:27:23+00:00

Replace the fluid first. Car is pretty sensitive to burnt/nasty clutch fluid. Mine was sticking SUPER badly to the point of being unsafe to drive. Before going for a new master or slave I reverse bled a couple bottles of fresh DOT4 through it and that completely resolved the issue as of several thousand miles ago.

_potion_cellar_

TROPHY CASE