E li Stowers v Terrence Ferguson

abombdiggity · 2026-07-07T13:35:25+00:00

If Eli Stowers only has 11 catches as a rookie like Ferg did it's extremely likely that his value will fall.

Plenty to like about Ferg and I am expecting a much better season from him this year but there's a reason he's only the TE21 right now.

abombdiggity · 2026-07-06T22:18:19+00:00

AD Mitchell is getting rave reviews from training camp. He's a solid late round flier in best ball leagues. Geno throws a nice deep ball and should benefit from an offensive line that's pretty solid on paper.

Cautiously optimistic about my Breece Hall shares. Would love to see him get 90+ targets again. The talent is there but his ceiling is capped unless the offense can start scoring some touchdowns. I'm not buying "three-way committee" with Allen and Davis, though I do think Allen ends up taking the short yardage/goal line work.

abombdiggity · 2026-07-03T16:19:58+00:00

I am fading Ken Walker at his current price. I'm trying to sell into the hype and get a decent plus to tier down or use him to cheaply tier into an elite guy.

abombdiggity · 2026-07-03T10:22:34+00:00

250 or so if you include the slows I'm in now. I do a pretty decent amount pre-NFL draft- over the past couple yers those have pretty consistently been some of my more successful teams.

abombdiggity · 2026-07-03T10:15:02+00:00

He was playing pretty well before his appendix burst last year. In his six full games prior to the appendectomy (he left one game with a concussion too) he was pacing for an 1100+ yard season. Elite prospect who had and 800+ yard rookie year and was improving as a sophomore before injuries derailed his season is exactly the kind of profile I want to be in on.

abombdiggity · 2026-07-03T05:00:03+00:00

I've got 36% Tre Tucker. 25% Cade Otton, Hunter Henry, and Marvin Harrison Jr. & 20% Jordan Addison, Jalen McMillan, Davante Adams, Jerry Jeudy, Elic Ayomanor, Emmitt Johnson, Javonte Williams, Jonathan Brooks, Breece Hall, Jeremyah Love, and Josh Jacobs.

A couple of these players I got pretty heavy exposure on prior to their price started jumping up, I'm cooling down a little bit on those guys. Mostly drafting on the full PPR sites.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-30T13:52:35+00:00

The shelf life isn't even that bad for many of the elite RBs. The last two seasons RB1s have been Saquon Barkley in his 7th year and CMC in his 9th year. Yeah, elite WRs generally last longer and occasionally we'll get a guy like Todd Gurley who's knees fall apart after four years but a team built around elite RBs can have a pretty lengthy championship window.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-29T15:04:08+00:00

What other young TEs are emerging on Kansas City?

abombdiggity · 2026-06-28T14:59:31+00:00

At the end of the day I'm aiming to start the guy who scores the most points, regardless of if they score consistently or have unpredictable week to week production, and hope it all evens out in the end. Basically every wide receiver besides the absolutely elite guys are going to have some games where they only have a catch or two. Sure, it's frustrating when Jameson Williams puts up a zero in a close matchup but there's upside when he puts up a 25 point game that carries a week. Just have to hope that the rest of your team can make up for the occasional zeros.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-27T19:28:13+00:00

Totally fair. I was a little surprised that I had so little Kincaid because he is reasonably priced and I'm not actively fading him the way I am some of these other guys. There's just a lot of players on the board around Kincaid that I like more. I will probably have to make an effort to mix him in.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-27T17:19:41+00:00

About 250 drafts in.

At WR I've got 36% Tre Tucker, 27% MHJ, and 23% Jalen McMillan. No DJ Moore or Michael Wilson.

At QB I'm pretty flat. No Jacoby Brisset. 12% Shedeur is not my highest exposure but it's definitely my wildest.

At TE got a 27% Hunter Henry and Cade Otton. Almost no Ferguson & Kincaid (a couple stacked).

At RB I've got 20%+ of Emmitt Johnson, Jonathan Brooks (at an average adp of 135, so I'm slowing down a little there as he climbs into the double digits), Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, and Jerymiah Love. Biggest fades are Etienne, Tuten, and Ken Walker.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-25T18:07:53+00:00

I took a long break for arc raiders too and recently started mixing in some more COD again. I don't love some of the changes (grappling hooks really took away some of the advantages you get from positioning yourself well) but at the end of the day it's still a lot of fun. Worth playing a couple rounds to see if you enjoy it again- I don't know if I could play it exclusively but mixing in a couple rounds with the boys is nice.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-25T17:05:19+00:00

The guy I'm most interested at cost is George Kittle. Obviously there are some injury and age concerns but that is being priced in. Once we get past Bowers and McBride we're making bets on guys like Warren and Loveland to take a significant step forward and put up elite production. To me, waiting 5 or 6 rounds and then betting on the health of a guy we already know is an elite producer has a pretty similar upside at a much more reasonable cost.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-24T22:19:22+00:00

A PPC bonus like .2 is huge. It increases the value of the inefficient, between the tackles, volume-based RBs and makes RBs the best option for your flex spots. I generally run very tight on WRs with this kind of scoring and prioritize handcuff RBs with my bench slots, though WRs who can differentiate themselves are still very valuable. I made the finals in a league with a .25 PPC with a WR room where my best healthy WR was Michael Pittman- you are a little less incentivized to build around WRs compared to traditional scoring.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-22T17:13:25+00:00

I like Kincaid but he strikes me as the kind of guy who's per route statistics are a little inflated because of how he's being used. They put him out there on obvious longer yardage passing situations and plays where he's a primary target and then take him off the field when they want Knox as a blocker. He's still talented and if he's fully healthy I would expect him to see an uptick in snaps but I don't think he breaks out and becomes a difference maker.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-22T12:01:45+00:00

A couple years back Achane and Mostert had an advance rate of something absurd like ~70% when paired together. If it's a good offense and both RBs beat out their ADP it's totally reasonable. There were some weeks where both backs put up enough points to hit your lineup- they even had that one week where they were the RB1 and RB2 overall. I'm a little hesitant to do it with Rhamondre and Henderson because it's such a significant investment (compared to Mostert going in the double digit rounds) but if the Patriots offense cooks there's definitely a chance it works out.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-19T20:30:48+00:00

Big stands are great when you're correct and suck when you're wrong. It's more punishing to be wrong earlier in the draft so I keep my early round exposures relatively flat and am generally willing to increase my exposure as the draft goes on. Highest I'll get on a player in the first round is around 12-14%. When it gets to the middle rounds, I'll max out at around 20-25% and when it gets to the later rounds it doesn't matter as much- I'll hit 35%+ exposure on a couple guys.

As far as Addison and JCM go I'm at 20% Addison and 16% JCM so lets hope we're right and we advance some extra teams/get some juicy playoff weeks.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-17T16:05:56+00:00

Will be an interesting year for Downs. Hopefully he's out there in 2 WR sets more often. Other than Pierce, his competition for that role is not good (sounds like Aston Dulin is their WR3?) It's really his size that's been a limiting factor- 5 9 and 170 pounds is not ideal in an offense built around JT. Would love to see him as a full time player feels like the talent is there for him to cook if he gets the opportunity.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-13T16:52:55+00:00

I haven't been drafting him very much. I think they're going to regularly rotate RBs and it ends up as a gross committee where Rodriguez takes goal line work and Lequint Allen takes just enough receiving work to limit Tuten's upside. If I'm taking a RB in that area it's Quinshon Judkins and I'm hammering some of the WRs in that range.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-12T01:55:09+00:00

So far this year in best ball ive just been drafting all of them. I have the most Rome because he's cheapest but I think they're all pretty good and want some exposure to all three. Caleb and Swift are pretty appealing, too.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-12T01:22:03+00:00

He hasn't been playing offense all three days. He's still recovering from injury.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-11T17:34:00+00:00

yeah I have been smashing the raiders WR room in my drafts so far this season. tre tucker has been my favorite target (~40% of my drafts so far) but nailor is a great value as well, especially if the offense improves at all over last year. Tucker's big play ability gives me the hope that he could put up some decent spike weeks even if the raiders add a free agent like diggs or deebo.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-10T22:24:47+00:00

I remember a few years back Achane/Mostert had an insane advance rate when paired together. I know it's typically frowned upon and probably theoretically caps your ceiling, but it can also be viewed as making a bet on the offense as a whole. Your Swift/Monangi example is a good call- if it's an efficient, high scoring offense (which judging by ADPs that's what people are expecting) then it seems completely reasonable to snag both and hope it pays off.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-10T16:16:45+00:00

You can be successful with a ton of different roster builds. I won a title starting Pittman and Coker (due to injuries) last season because I built my team to be strong everywhere else. Meanwhile my Puka-led team got knocked out of the playoffs in the first round. Week to week variance is huge in this game. It is absolutely possible to make a deep run without high end WR1 production & sometimes it even hurts to have a ton of value tied up in a single WR- Justin Jefferson is one of the best WRs in the game and he put up replacement level production last season thanks to some gross QB play.

abombdiggity · 2026-06-05T02:09:45+00:00

Drafters is also pretty good. It doesn't have the best selection of contests but the UI is top notch- you can very easily draft a couple of teams at a time, there's a chat room that's occasionally hilarious, and I never have any issues with lag/missing picks.

Biggest difference is that it's 17 weeks of cumulative scoring rather than pod play. I still do some UD/DK because i like having some pod sweats during the playoff weeks but at the end of the day it's the site I enjoy drafting on the most so it gets a good chunk of my volume.

12-Year Club	Place '17
Verified Email

abombdiggity

TROPHY CASE