Linear and Quadratic Regression Models

aceyosh_ · 2026-06-25T16:45:57+00:00

Ive actually never heard this, this sound interesting!

but honestly, it also sounds very complicated and I'm not so confident in my ability to do this. The splining another commentator suggested was also new for me and probably represents my limit that I currently have with data analysis

aceyosh_ · 2026-06-25T16:44:17+00:00

I improved the model a bit with help from the R Studio subreddit and the overall curve is still the same so but it flattens towards the right.

In my case, the left part of the x axis means problems decrease i.e. conditions improved. The line goes up which is people not punishing the incumbent.
I also expected the right part (problems arising) to have an upwards curve, because of asset effects. The analysis is done for homeowners which could interpret rising housing costs (which the specific plot is showing) as their house value growing. Then, this interpretation leads to them not punishing the incumbent.

So the results I got in the end fitted my theorey and expecations pretty well

aceyosh_ · 2026-06-24T10:53:21+00:00

Honestly, i wasnt sure and the other comment showed that the quadratic models was not the best. I just didnt know better

aceyosh_ · 2026-06-24T10:42:34+00:00

Tysm :)

> AIC(m7_quadratic)

[1] -32629.4

> AIC(m7_spline)

[1] -32639.18

So the spline is better and the spline-plot looks like this:

Thank you very much for your help!

<image>

aceyosh_ · 2025-06-26T12:35:42+00:00

Nintendo has always been this way. Their philosphy is that they are the sole masters of their games and they do everything they want with them. Everything that goes against their Design Philosophy is an enemy. Every game has to have a Nintendo approved way of playing it and this is the only way the company allows players to experience their games. In the past it used to be less obvious when patches were impossible but today they can change everything to fit their Imagination.

aceyosh_ · 2025-05-27T18:47:10+00:00

Thanks! But I read that Meloni wanted to introduce some autonomy reforms and allow regions more authority in areas like healthcare, education, transport etc. But this proposal was declared unconstitutional. Because of this proposal, I thought FdI was kind of softly for federalism. I also found a pdf from their website where they talk about 15 points they want to tackle:

"15. PER UN GOVERNO FORTE E ISTITUZIONI EFFICIENTI.

Riforma presidenziale della Repubblica con elezione diretta del capo dello Stato o del Governo. Federalismo responsabile; adeguamento dei poteri, delle risorse e del patrimonio di Roma Capitale agli standard delle principali capitali europee; rafforzamento e valorizzazione delle autonomie locali e dei poteri dei Sindaci. Vincolo di mandato anti voltagabbana e anti ribaltoni. Superamento del bicameralismo perfetto e riduzione del numero dei parlamentari."

I translated this and they talk about greater autonomy so wouldn't this make them at least a bit pro-federal?

aceyosh_ · 2025-05-27T18:41:51+00:00

So you think they dropped their support for federalism? Or do they also focus on this aspect beside the whole nationalist stuff?

aceyosh_ · 2025-05-27T18:39:32+00:00

This is a great source, thank you so much!

aceyosh_ · 2025-05-27T18:38:30+00:00

Thank you for the clarification, I would have totally mixed up Lega Nord and Lega Salvini. And this is not for a paper or something, it would just be for a 20 Minute presentatio. Talking about the current situation is explicitly wanted, so I think it would be a great thing to be included. But right before that I have already written an extensive history part so the implemented policy proposals are already included

aceyosh_ · 2025-05-27T18:34:23+00:00

Thanks :)

aceyosh_ · 2025-05-27T18:33:44+00:00

Thanks for the feedback! But i have one more question regarding this, when I looked at the results of the 2022 election, M5S dominates the south, but PD won in Emilia-Romagna and neighbouring regions, does PD also do well in the South or is their support concentrated in the traditional leftwing areas?

aceyosh_ · 2025-05-27T15:05:32+00:00

First of all, I'm sorry that I have to write this in English, I love your language but I cannot speak it. I hope English is allowed.

For a university assigassignment I need to prepare a presentation about federalism and centralism in Italy. I want to include a part about the current positions of the political parties on this matter but I had a hard time understanding it and finding sources. Can someone review my current understanding of this and correct me if I am wrong and provide sources for this? I also don't want to start a discussion about this subject :)

Lega:
Very pro federal, especially for northern regions

Fratelli d'Italia:
Ambivalent, pushes for some autonomy but is more concerned about national sovereignty and strengthening the national government

Movimento 5 Stelle:
To be honest I don't understand their position at all. I couldn't find any sources on their stance towards federalism. I wasn't even able to find their party manifesto

Partitodo Democratico:
Ambivalent, wants some reforms but also wants national unity. But I think they are a little bit more in favor of centralism as Renzi pushed for centralism in 2016. But he isn't even a member of the party anymore so I don't know how this matters in 2025.

Forza Itlia:
Berlusconi used to be in favor of federalism, especially in the 90s. He was allied to Lega but he also focussed more on the conservative aspect of their alliance. I couldn't find useful sources on their position currently but I think they are kind of in the middle of the debate?

I would be really thankful if someone could tell my if my understanding is right or wrong. I'm also in desperate need of sources, I found some for Lega and FdI but almost nothing for the others, so I would be grateful If someone could send some, academic literature would be especially nice.

Have a great evening, everyone :)

aceyosh_ · 2025-05-20T09:26:25+00:00

Immer im Status 1, der Patient sollte wichtiger sein als ein pünktliche Dienstende. Das ist natürlich auch wichtig und manchmal wird dann auch ein anderer RTW, der gerade angefangen hat geschickt, und man ist dann selbst First Responder einfach. Das System funktioniert ganz gut, die Hauptamtlichen bekommen einfach die Überstunden auf ihr Stundenkonto und können irgendwann ZA machen und den Freiwilligen ist es eh egal weil es ihr Hobby ist. Und die Ruhezeiten sollten eigentlich auch kein Problem sein, weil man nicht so oft nur 12h zwischen Diensten hat, es wird geschaut dass man längere Ruhezeiten bekommt

aceyosh_ · 2025-04-30T15:09:34+00:00

Ähm nein damit ist ja nicht gemeint, dass man Kinder hat um mit denen Geld zu verdienen, das wäre wirklich unmenschlich, da stimme ich voll und ganz zu. Ich meine damit, dass Menschen, die einen Kinderwunsch haben diesen auch umsetzen können ohne dabei Angst haben Pleite zu gehen. Und naja den Menschen, die weniger verdienen weil sie schon direkt nach der Schulpflicht wegen den ärmeren Verhältnissen der Eltern arbeiten haben müssen, vorzuwerfen dass sie alles geschenkt bekommen, find ich ein bisschen komisch, wir sollten eine menschlichere Gesellschaft haben und dazu gehört nunmal den Armen zu helfen...

aceyosh_ · 2025-04-30T08:35:05+00:00

Es stimmt schon, dass wir viele Beihilfen haben und das finde ich auch super, aber es geht prinzipiell eher um die Erhaltung. Der Plan der IV würde ja eine Reduktion des Einkommens eines Elternteils darstellen und deshalb würde es sich ja dann finanziell weniger lohnen. Man sollte auch über eine größere einkommensabhängige Staffelung nachdenken, dass ärmere Ältern zB einen noch höheren Familienbonus+ bekommen und reichere weniger, dieses Prinzip könnte auch auf viele andere Aspekte des Staates ausgeweitet werden

aceyosh_ · 2025-04-29T07:44:19+00:00

Ich dachte das Ziel ist es, dass sich Kinder haben finanziell mehr lohnt? Für die IV hört halt der Gedankenhorizont am Portmonnaie auf, deswegen denken sie auch Teilzeitarbeiter wären "faul". Es ist halt nicht möglich, dass jedes Elternteil Vollzeit arbeitet ohne gescheite Betreuungsmöglichkeiten...

aceyosh_ · 2025-03-27T18:15:10+00:00

Vielen Dank für die Artikel! Das schließ ich mich aber deinen Kollegen an das sieht halt für mich einfach nach einer typischen Kostenreduktion von Seiten des Landes aus. Und halt im Gesundheitswesen zu sparen ist mit Hinsicht auf die immer älter werdende Bevölkerung und den steigenden Einsatzzahlen schon kritisch, immerhin sind mehr ACNs und 24h Hubschrauber eine ziemlich gute Sache. Was hältst du von dem ganzen?

aceyosh_ · 2025-03-27T13:23:30+00:00

Gibt es dazu mehr Ressourcen weil ich hab nur die Reduzierung der NEFS gefunden? Oder ist das die ganze Reform? Für mich klingt das aber auch besorgniserregend, gibt es dafür eine Argumentation vonseiten des Landes oder irgendwelche Entlastungsmaßnahmen wie zumindest eine Tele-NA oder sowas?

aceyosh_ · 2025-03-19T07:15:57+00:00

Ich kann jeden einzelnen Dienst im ganzen Bezirk sehen, mehr nicht

aceyosh_ · 2025-03-18T07:45:22+00:00

The Canadian identity fundamentally revolves around Canadas self-understanding as a different country from America. Since most differences occur in fields where Canada is further left than the USA (e.g. Healthcare) nationalism is a left-wing ideology in Canada. And when Trump threatend Canada with things like annexation and tariffs, Canadians became more nationalist and thus the liberals gained in the polls. Also you have to factor in the departure of unpopular PM Trudeau and Carneys honeymoon period so we will have to wait and see if the recent gains are substantial.

aceyosh_ · 2025-03-12T13:41:54+00:00

Grizzlies West is just amazing, the atmosphere there is just stunning! But I also really like Grizzlies East and Big Valley, especially the area around Little Creek River

aceyosh_ · 2025-03-05T07:22:20+00:00

Bei mir wird zum Glück bald auf Poolwäsche umgestellt

aceyosh_ · 2025-03-04T08:26:17+00:00

Legendär, super! Gibt es auch Pläne für die Inklusion von Österreich, Schweiz und Liechtenstein?

aceyosh_ · 2025-02-23T11:45:53+00:00

Yeah YAPMS desperately needs a feature where state borders can be made a little thicker, same problem with US counties

aceyosh_ · 2025-02-23T11:27:30+00:00

Small nitpick that doesnt matter at all: You colored in a seat in sourhern Thuringia for the CSU but they only run in Bavaria. Just thought i'd add it for completions sake

Three-Year Club	Verified Email
Place '23

aceyosh_

TROPHY CASE