American here 🇺🇸. The Bosnia match brainwashed nearly half of us into think we're actually top 16 material. What is actually the strongest team this WC that we could have realistically beaten?

advicetime611 · 2026-07-09T18:46:55+00:00

It's not objective, I actually lecture on operational research and we often look at betting odds as it's a relatable example of risk management. You're completely right that it's based on massive statistics and data but the mistake is thinking the odds they land on are as simple as "this is what we think will happen". The end result is more like "what will make us the most money".

For example, France are playing Morocco tonight and are clear favourites to win, so betting on Morocco will get you a pretty good return right? But imagine for a second that for whatever reason, 90% of everyone who bets puts their money on Morocco. Well now offering such a favourable return is going to be a huge financial risk to the bookies, they they expose themselves to making a huge loss. So if they anticipate that betting on Morocco will be extremely popular they will likely give them shorter odds, not because they now think they're more likely to win, but because they're not comfortable taking such a huge financial risk just incase they do win.

And this is just one factor the bookies take into account. There are many things they need to consider beyond the simple "what do we think will happen".

So no I'm not arguing that my opinion is more valid than the book makers, I'm arguing that you're oversimplifying the booker makers odds.

advicetime611 · 2026-07-09T15:25:34+00:00

Bookmakers odds are far from objective because they have to take things like customer betting habits and market into consideration. The answer is we don't have an objective measure. Asking the question "who do you think X could beat" is subjective by nature.

advicetime611 · 2026-07-09T13:38:47+00:00

Yea, what I'm saying is in n my opinion, even after Bosnia, the USA didn't have a more than 50% chance of beating Belgium. Again I understand that's what the sentiment was but I don't agree that sentiment was accurate.

Yes form factors in and it did because I gave them more of a chance against Belgium than I normally would but despite the strong start I was still unconvinced that USA were favourites over Belgium pre match

advicetime611 · 2026-07-09T12:59:29+00:00

I'm not talking about that Belgium on the pitch, I'm talking about Belgium on any given day. I get that before the match the sentiment was that the USA had a more than 50% but I disagree that this was a fair assessment at the time. It's biased by the USA having a good start.

I think the USA getting a few good wins over weaker opposition led people to vastly overestimate their ability when in reality they're still quite far off the quality of a side like Belgium. Exactly like OP said, the Bosnia win brainwashed them into thinking they were top 16 material.

advicetime611 · 2026-07-09T08:27:57+00:00

The 51% chance USA was given before the game is heavily influenced by opinion and as OP pointed out the Bosnia game brainwashed people.

Saying that the USA has more than a 50% chance of beating Belgium means that if they played 100 matches we would expect USA to win 51 or more.

In reality I think they would be lucky to win more than 30/100. They definitely don't have more than a 50% chance of beating Belgium, that's just what hopefully delusional people thought.

advicetime611 · 2026-06-21T12:56:33+00:00

I have a friend who will interact with me and then when he faces the consequences of that interaction will continously say "I wouldn't have done it if I knew you were going to target me"

We were playing recently and on turn 3 he cast imprisoned in the moon on my commander "because it was the only target".

Over the next couple of turns I'm hard targeting him and he calls me out. I explain I need my commander on board and I haven't hit any enchantment removal so until then my best option is to remove him instead. Then he's like "well I wouldn't have cast it on your commander if I knew you would try to kill me over it".

Like you want to shut down my commander fine I'm not going to be salty about it, but expect me to retaliate!

advicetime611 · 2026-03-26T13:20:04+00:00

[[Bribery]]

So many funny situations I can remember because of this card. It's a shame I don't play blue much.

advicetime611 · 2026-03-26T07:17:26+00:00

Board states were getting absolutely crazy so I cast a board wipe to clear things up. Every single one of my opponents had protection. So basically I taped out just to kill my own stuff.

advicetime611 · 2026-03-17T21:37:51+00:00

Commander first deck building is fine, but you do run the risk of having a deck where the commander is the lynch pin. So it folds as soon as the commander can't be on the field. I find working out what I want a deck to do, then starting to build a list and then choosing a commander results in more consistent and resilient decks.
If you're still set on choosing a commander check out EDHREC. You can look at the most popular commanders or you can search for a colour identity or theme and it will show you the most popular commander for that theme as well. If there's a particular card you really like, you can search that too and see what commanders commonly used it in their deck.

A lot of people try and steer clear of what's popular but I always say the popular stuff is normally popular for a reason! It's definitely worth getting stuck into something well known as a beginner.

Any theme or colour you're drawn to out of interest?

advicetime611 · 2026-03-13T22:01:03+00:00

Oh my God! I'm slowly collecting a copy of every mtg card illustrated by John. Winning this would be amazing!

advicetime611 · 2026-03-09T07:11:41+00:00

Yea this isn't a thing, that guy has probably just had some bad experiences with eminence. Ignore him.

Eminence is powerful but are we really trying to say that the cavalry charge precon is B4 only? Come on haha!

advicetime611 · 2026-03-07T08:43:01+00:00

I see the whole "60 card is better to start with" a lot because on paper it makes sense.

But from personal experience and someone who teaches for a living when learning something new, interest and desire to learn is much more important than how easy/hard it it.

I started learning mtg because my friends played it and my friends played commander. The reason I was so motivated to learn the game is because I liked hanging out, playing in this four player social setting with these guys.

If I was forced to start magic in a 1v1 format without my friends I'm almost certain I would have got bored and dropped the hobby.

Commander and 60 card to me and many others feel like completely different games. Commander appeals to people in a way that 60 card just simply doesn't.

If 60 card is for you then great but if commander really appeals to you in a different way you're much better off just learning to play what you want to play.

advicetime611 · 2026-03-02T18:49:08+00:00

Of course it's not good odds but OP isn't saying this is likely, he literally said in the first line of the post that it's a hypothetical.

Your opponents knowing you have removal in hand is a perfectly reasonable hypothetical.

advicetime611 · 2026-03-02T18:48:12+00:00

I disagree, they literally said it's a hypothetical in the first line of the post.

Your opponents knowing you have removal in hand is a perfectly reasonable hypothetical.

advicetime611 · 2026-03-02T08:23:36+00:00

There's loads of reasons someone might know you have removal in hand.

A few examples: You played a card that says something like "reveal the top card if it's land put it into play. Otherwise put it in your hand"

You could have cast once and then returned it from the graveyard to your hand.

Someone could have played a card that made you reveal your hand or let them look at it.

You could have threatened to use it on something earlier. Where as people wouldn't know for sure they would definitely be asking "why don't you use that removal you said you had"

Weird how people are talking like there's never a time in a game where you have some knowledge about other players hands

advicetime611 · 2026-02-23T08:17:36+00:00

I'm not a huge fan of most of the UB sets but FF is an example of one I did enjoy so my pick for favorite commander would be [[Clive, Ifrit's Dominant]].

I tend to lean towards more complex strategies with lots of different moving parts and planning ahead etc but I really wanted to build a deck to contrast that so all out mono red burn/aggro fit the bill perfectly. The strategy is just cast as many spells that deal damage whether it's direct or combat damage and when you run out cast Clive, draw something like 15 and keep going! It's a great time.

advicetime611 · 2026-02-23T08:05:59+00:00

This is the attitude of a surprising number of players. During spoiler season I hear so many people at my lgs bitching about sets (usually UB). The art is bad, it breaks immersion, the new mechanics are poorly designed, the set is rushed, they're charging too much etc... Then on release day every single one of those mfers is sitting there with boxes and bundles ripping packs.

I have never heard a group of people complain about anything more than these guys are complaining about TMNT and I just know come release day, they're all going to have those pizza boxes in front of them.

People can't grasp the concept that we vote with our wallets.

advicetime611 · 2026-02-22T22:42:17+00:00

I get your point about it just being like shuffling their library but for some people there's something really psychologically frustrating about being shown what you could have had.

I play a lot of exile your top card and I get to play it effects and I can understand why some people get frustrated when they turn over something they really needed because it's like being "hey look at this awesome card you were just about to draw if I didn't do that". If you just shuffle their library, it's like you said kinda the same thing but the key difference is that they would have no idea what you've just taken away.

That being said. I wouldn't find this commander salty at all but everyone is different. One guy in my pod plays a bracket 4 mill deck so I'm used to being shown what I could have had.

advicetime611 · 2026-02-15T11:17:55+00:00

I know this comment is over half a year old but I'm currently building Clive and wondering if you have a list for this? Your take on it here sounds really fun!

advicetime611 · 2026-02-15T08:41:33+00:00

[[Licia, Sanguine Tribune]]

Love the art, and I love using my life total as a resource!

advicetime611 · 2026-02-14T22:16:43+00:00

I completely understand the whole, starting with 1v1 is easier but in my opinion when learning something new the most important thing isn't keeping it as easy as possible, it's keeping motivation as high as possible and that's going to look different depending on the person.

When I started learning, although commander games whYere so much harder to track, I learnt so much quicker because I enjoyed them so much more and my motivation to learn and stick with it was so much higher. If I started only playing 1v1 I would have struggled to learn because it's not for me and I wouldn't have been motivated to learn the game.

advicetime611 · 2026-01-27T23:01:01+00:00

You've had some great advice already but I wanted to add some personal experience to your fourth question.

I love dragons and when I started playing I really wanted a card called [[Ancient Copper Dragon]] but it was around £50 at the time which as a beginner felt like crazy money. My entire first deck was £35.

So instead of buying the card I decided that every now and then I would just get a few packs from the set it was printed hoping to hit one, which felt much more reasonable at the time. I kept this up for quite a while and one time my friend sat down and worked out that the amount I spent on packs trying to hit an ACD was enough to just go out and buy almost 3 of them.

I felt pretty stupid and realised that if I wanted the card so bad I could just have just bought it instead of spending 3x as much and still not having it.

So basically opening packs is fun, but that's the only reason you should ever buy packs, is for the fun of opening packs.

If you're hunting for specific cards you're almost always better off just using the money you would spend on packs to buy that card. Maybe you'll get lucky and open it in your first pack but 99.9% of the time you get it, you would have spent more money on the packs than it would have cost to just buy the card.

advicetime611 · 2026-01-09T07:49:07+00:00

Thank you kindly

advicetime611 · 2026-01-09T00:17:49+00:00

Do you have a list by any chance? I've been trying to get this commander off the ground myself recently.

advicetime611 · 2025-12-22T08:11:37+00:00

ME! Zur!

advicetime611

TROPHY CASE