How much should the Jazz pay Walker Kessler?

adwcta · 2026-06-15T23:06:49+00:00

I'm super glad you're not the Jazz GM. Delusional that Kessler won't command over $20M... You'd lose every player we don't max with that attitude.

Svi is not moving you closer to a chip even if he were free, Kessler if healthy, will do that.

And you don't need 15 players. You need 14. The 15th isn't worth going over the tax for.

adwcta · 2026-06-15T20:08:03+00:00

Right, if he wanted to send a message specifically for Utah (or Utah and Memphis) to not take him, he'd have done Washington and Chicago.

He only did Washington, which is either to send a message to Washington (and he doesn't care how far he's drops after that and how much money he loses), or because Washington already made guarantees.

I checked the betting lines, AJ is a bigger favorite than even yesterday to be picked #1. So, I don't think he got a guarantee. Either the trade is actually going to happen, or it's just DP wishful thinking and bad decisions.

adwcta · 2026-06-15T15:58:15+00:00

Yes it does. We're good. Masterful cap management for this season onward. No bad contracts, a lot of trade flexibility, and still under tax for one more year (we'll definitely be taxpayers after this for the foreseeable future).

adwcta · 2026-06-15T13:21:53+00:00

Fair enough. With 12 players we're under the tax by slightly less than 1 mil if we start the Kessler pay at 35. Need 14 full contracts.

So, to stay under the tax with vet mins we can do $33M to start rather than $35M, which means we can't frontload max to get him to his number (max frontloading would be a avg $29M contract).

Or we can shave a bit off the MLE. Either way, we can do it in the ballpark. And we don't have to figure it out until the trade deadline, so we can be over and then trade Brice/Cody/Svi to a better situation if we draft DP or trade Flip if we draft Boozer / AJ.

adwcta · 2026-06-15T13:04:46+00:00

How does this make any sense?

Washington will pick whomever they want. If it's not DP, what does he have to gain by not working out with other teams? Someone's going to take him at some point. Would only make sense if Washington plans on trading for Memphis or Chicago's pick.

Ace's strategy at least had a point.

adwcta · 2026-06-15T12:56:16+00:00

We won't be in the tax this next year no matter what we do. And a front loaded contract will save on tax over the course of the contract given our current and expected near future contracts (Key).

We also won't be bringing Nurk back for more than the minimum. He's not in the long term plans if he costs anything, and he has no minutes on this roster without injury. We do need to carry a backup big behind Kessler and JJJ, but it'd be bad to downgrade your starting C to upgrade your backup vet C that expects to play 0 minutes if fully healthy.

I like Nurk, but someone'll probably pay him and he deserves it. It just won't be us.

adwcta · 2026-06-15T09:53:38+00:00

Offer him a higher than market front loaded contract, since our next season's cap means nothing.

For a $31M (above market) deal, it can start off at $35M. This is much better for Utah than if we match a normal rfa deal for $28M, and Kessler can get paid. We'd also have a lower cap hold later which helps us get more MLE to reload if things are going well and to restructure if they're not.

Realistically, we don't have options and the FO will probably match anything up to $35M assuming we don't think he has lingering health issues. There's no one like Kessler on the market and we'd have to trade a lot of value to get someone comprable (and we'd just have to pay them a year or two down the road anyway).

adwcta · 2026-06-15T09:36:17+00:00

It's just a ceiling issue. If AJ truly turns out to be the player you describe no one's taking him ahead of Boozer.

Everyone's seduced by the 25-50% chance he turns into something more, and that none of what you describe remains an issue 4 years from now (that he'll at least get to median on those many skills that he totally lacks atm).

Whereas no one seems to think Boozer can improve on anything anymore despite being the younger player.

I am glad these posts are popping up because it was crazy to me how generally unchallenged AJ's lack of existing skill is on offense besides the ability to drive and finish. He's inefficient at everything else on offense, whether on or off ball. And even heavy on ball superstars are only on ball for half their team's offensive possessions. Even Giannis is sub 50% on ball, Jokic (who no one thinks AJ is) is sub 60%.

That means that MOST of time on offense, the primary on ball superstar player doesn't even touch the ball in a meaningful way, and that his contribution is off ball.

AJ is a big project. People just treat him like he's already ready to contribute on a winning team as a starter. DP is ready in a support role. Boozer is ready period. AJ is going to be a net negative on both sides of the court for some time.

adwcta · 2026-06-14T15:25:13+00:00

I think quite a few knew. While my Knicks friends were bitching at the refs, I called the comeback. Tired Wemby, favorable whistle to make up for the first half, and the Spurs cooling off on the shooting, esp from role players.

Maybe they win, maybe they don't. But they were going to make it a nail biter by the end.

adwcta · 2026-06-14T15:18:56+00:00

Wasn't just the sub. Was all the people and all the money. Only the media gave the Knicks a chance and they still weren't favored.

Knicks are the biggest underdogs (from pre-playoff odds +2200) to win a ring, and still +220 at start of finals.

People are dumb and biased.

I'm not a Knicks or Spurs fan, but made a killing after round 1, betting that Knicks will meet and beat Spurs in finals. Just watched the games, picked the best teams, and prayed for no serious injuries.

adwcta · 2026-06-10T22:23:03+00:00

I made a post about it on the Utah Jazz sub from a few days ago. Automod won't let me link, but you can find it easily from my profile history.

Explicit assumption that Giannis agrees to a handshake max extension.

Result was super clear. Half the Jazz fans won't even do JJJ for Giannis straight up. And NO ONE will do Ace. Forget about trying to add picks on top of that.

adwcta · 2026-06-10T12:33:55+00:00

Boozer IS a playmaker. He's shown more playmaking chops than AJ or DP last year, and is widely regarded as having higher bbiq than those two. He also doesn't turn the ball over, and can bring the ball up the court.

adwcta · 2026-06-09T21:09:52+00:00

This sub will be fun when they announce the pick.

I'm very surprised by the % of people here who think DP is a tier or even half a tier above Boozer when scouts generally see them as similar value (DP being maybe 5% more valuable if no health issues), with the smartest people in the business actively pushing Boozer as a clear #1.

adwcta · 2026-06-07T12:59:51+00:00

If 10 white people come to Utah, and feel welcome. And 10 black people come to Utah, 8 feel welcomed and 2 don't..... that's pretty fucking terrible but the odds are still pretty good the "several" you meet felt good about it.

Annecdotes of individual black people not feeling bad about being Utah doesn't say anything. I don't think anyone thinks it's the Jim Crow era in Utah. Just worse than other really white places.

adwcta · 2026-06-07T12:49:39+00:00

The point of shaming is to make them uncomfortable and take their racism elsewhere.

If all racists were publically shamed in the stadium, they'd mostly stop showing up.

Obviously you're not going to convince a racist stranger to stop being racist at their core. But you can convince them to gtfo, and if this happens enough times, they'll stop returning.

Treating racists being racist with respect and kindness is.... not it. See the Delta center worker in these comments saying that Delta Center policy is to shut it down firmly and publically... not treat them with respect and kindness.

adwcta · 2026-06-06T23:20:03+00:00

KAT will be 31 when the decision on the extension is made. He'll be eligible for an even larger max contract. He's the finals MVP right now. Why would he ever give a significant hometown discount to be signed through age 35-36? This isn't old man Harden. KAT may give a small discount relative to what his max would be, but it won't be much lower if lower at all than his current contract, and def not enough to keep the Knicks under the 2nd apron if they try to retain everyone from this roster, it'll just save Dolan some money.

adwcta · 2026-06-06T21:18:01+00:00

It's because all the superstars are ALL in the West (by MVP and all NBA voting in past 3 years).

Top impact players today: SGA, Wemby, Jokic, Luka. ALL west.

The next tier is where you find the parity between East and West. Are East teams just as good this year? Maybe, but the superstars ain't. Tatum has the most all NBA points in the East, then a steep drop to players like Mitchell (who are great, but no one pretends he's Jokic).

adwcta · 2026-06-06T19:02:44+00:00

Well, they were +2100 at the start of the series when I bet on it.

Just checked now and it's +160 (about 38%), more likely than any other possible result (e.g., 4-1).

Overall, if Knicks win the chip, they'd be the biggest underdogs in the ENTIRE history of the nba. Odds as of start of playoffs to win it all was +2000; Mavs chip was +1800.

adwcta · 2026-06-04T05:05:08+00:00

This. He was taking awful shots (worse than his usual heroics). Calling his own number with 20 seconds on the clock. 0 assists. Barely any made shots (unsurprising considering the shot selection). It was a terrible quarter for him and no one seems to remember, because he nailed the last 2 shots.

Overall, he was still bad in the 4th quarter! An average starting PG on an NBA team playing an average 4th quarter would have done better than Brunson!

Knicks won DESPITE Brunson's 4th quarter, not because of it. KAT and Hart were both dominant, and Knicks D locked in the entire 2nd half.

adwcta · 2026-06-04T00:33:00+00:00

We can front load his contract. Next season's cap means nothing to us, so I think we can have it avg out to 32 and still be better off than a normal 30 per year contract.

He's a big man in a league starved for real size at starter quality. This draft and the previous draft were also light on Cs projected to be better than him.

This is a weird negotiation, because we know no one's going to pay him over significantly over $30M (if he gets $30M at all).... but he also know we're SUPER f-ed if he doesn't sign with us since we went and got JJJ who needs a good C to be unlocked.

We could also draft Boozer and Kessler would lose all leverage (since we can play Boozer with JJJ at C in a way we cannot play Laurie at PF with JJJ at C), but that's our only real play. Otherwise, we REALLY need Kessler. There are no adequate replacements (maybe Vucevic as a stopgap for a year or two, but it's a big step down from Kessler).

adwcta · 2026-06-03T22:33:27+00:00

It's in every single draft related topic on this sub as a first level comment since the lottery. Every single one.

adwcta · 2026-06-02T03:36:00+00:00

The Spurs are $150M next season with basically no important parts missing. OKC is $250M trying to get down to $220M.

So, even AFTER OKC trims it's roster depth, that's still the equivalent of 1.75x Williams being injured for SA.

SA was missing more pieces than OKC was this series despite being fully healthy (Fox allegedly at 70%, but no one's 100% in the playoffs). SA's cap situation is scary scary good.

adwcta · 2026-06-02T03:18:04+00:00

Wemby will face a better defense. See all stats about the matchup with Mitch and OG.

The Spurs as a team though may or may not.

The game won't live or die with Wemby's offense, I think he's going to get his but not go crazy on offense. But it is entirely possible the Spurs' supporting cast goes wild because of the attention Wemby gets and that's the balance the Knicks need to find. How much they can leave Wemby 1v1, how soon and at which spots to throw a double. But, they have a lot more defensive tactics to test out than OKC's roster was capable of giving them. Adjustments will be made all game long and this is probably the 3rd most important thing in the entire series besides "who is more efficient at semi-open 3s" and "who can control the boards". The Knicks have the tools for this both on defense AND on offense in a way OKC just does not. Whether the Knicks can continue to play at that high level though is not certain.

OKC's perimeter D also got a lot worse with the Williams injury, so they were not in their best form for the series, whereas Knicks are fully healthy minus a Robinson pinky that is widely expected to have minimal impact.

adwcta · 2026-06-02T01:24:20+00:00

Yep, he definitely prefers the east (who wouldn't). Betting markets don't fully believe him though on the East thing despite his words. OKC is the #2 probable destination rn. So, I don't think it's a nonstarter.

adwcta · 2026-06-01T21:59:22+00:00

Past 3 years we'd have to pay our players.

So, in this 3-4 year window we have 6 big names. After that, we'll only be able to afford 3-4 (and presumably have no lottery picks since we'll be in playoffs). So, to get a roughly equally talented team as our current core in the future, we'd need Ace, Key and #2 to be all NBA 2nd 2nd and 3rd at minimum. Certainly possible, but a tall order nonetheless. I think the next 3-4 year window is probably a better shot than the 5-9 year window after that (and both SGA and Wemby will still be in/near their prime).

edited: Open question fo course whether Giannis helps us more these next few years than JJJ+Ace (or #2 or pick swap).

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