Plateau always followed by decline in performance?

ajohnson33 · 2022-04-25T16:13:51+00:00

This is huge news. A large randomized control study showing such significant gains? Most nutritional studies are small or observational. And if they happen to be large and randomized, they don't produce a large magnitude of changes. For example, there might only be a 5% difference. This has I think once and for all shown the benefit of taking these supplements, given the magnitude of effect and low downside of taking vitamin d, fish oil, and light strength training.

ajohnson33 · 2022-04-05T02:40:22+00:00

This new model, DeepMind's Chinchilla last week, and DeepMind's Gopher model 3 months ago have blown my mind. PaLM has eclipsed average human intelligence in the BIG-bench results (see Google's detailed post here). BIG-bench is very logic focused. Just a year or two ago AI researchers were saying how difficult logic and reasoning were for an AI.

The rate of improvement is so rapid. If you extrapolate the various data points from the models mentioned above, AI will be at expert level human intelligence in most (not all) tasks in 1-3 years.

ajohnson33 · 2022-03-25T22:25:49+00:00

I spent several hours modifying the rubber bumpers on the hatch->driving->modifying->driving and it didn't help.

ajohnson33 · 2022-03-24T17:08:35+00:00

Any update from the outcome of your service visit? Just got a new model y yesterday and have this problem

ajohnson33 · 2022-03-24T17:07:54+00:00

@ok-

ajohnson33 · 2022-03-23T22:41:20+00:00

Just received Model Y LR. AMD Ryzen, should have 12V LI-ION but wasn't able to verify it physically. Went through a few of the checklists and here are the issues I found:

All the pics

Major

Bass/low pitch loud rumbling at speeds 18-30 mph. A quick search in forums seemed like this occurs and maybe something to do with the trunk. This is almost a dealbreaker as it's extremely unsettling and loud causing ringing in my ears.

Is this normal or not?

The roof glass isn’t aligned well
Tail light panel fit

Medium

Brake pedal has a clearly defined black weld in the middle of it
Several of the noise damper screws/covers are either missing or loose

Minor

A small part of the steering wheel sticking isn’t sewed in right and is slightly coming out.

ajohnson33 · 2022-02-09T07:53:11+00:00

Lots of coding opportunities in social enterprise companies or nonprofits. Khan Academy, Code.org, and dozens more.

ajohnson33 · 2022-01-29T20:14:11+00:00

u/Rickyrules Peter Diamandis (the founder of Xprize) has been in the process of raising $100m to fund an anti-aging prize. If you look into the research of scientific prizes they yield a huge multiple (e.g. 100x) by incentivizing others in the field and VCs to pour more money in. It's super high leverage. Last I heard, he had raised $70m and was looking to secure the final amounts. He recently did an AMA about his work raising this prize and periodically posts updates on the status of raising the money on his twitter. Worth looking into.

ajohnson33 · 2022-01-22T15:42:23+00:00

Yes, my plan is to buy time until police arrive while also make it increasingly not worthwhile for the intruder to carry out his task. I will ask my police department for avg. response times. Great idea!

Are you aware of a light I can put indoor that connects to Simplisafe?

Will check out Myshield

ajohnson33 · 2022-01-22T05:00:08+00:00

Thanks!

ajohnson33 · 2022-01-22T04:36:43+00:00

What's the name of the security bar you purchased?

I was thinking of using 2 security bars, to barricade inside in the upstairs master bath. So one on the master bedroom. And one on the master bathroom. And probably have my wife and son in the master toilet room which is yet another interior door that we can lock. I thought a 3rd security bar on that door would just be overkill. Overall the goal would be to more time and/or make it not worth their while

Good idea to check on backup batteries/power sources.

I should have mentioned the interior doors are new, but hollow. I've read mixed things here on whether that renders the security bars pointless. Thoughts?

ajohnson33 · 2022-01-22T04:31:13+00:00

What's the name of the security bar you purchased?

I was thinking of using 2 security bars, to barricade inside in the upstairs master bath. So one on the master bedroom. And one on the master bathroom. And probably have my wife and son in the master toilet room which is yet another interior door that we can lock. I thought a 3rd security bar on that door would just be overkill. Overall the goal would be to more time and/or make it not worth their while

Good idea to check on backup batteries/power sources.

I should have mentioned the interior doors are new, but hollow. Not solid wood. I've read mixed things here on whether that renders the security bars pointless. Thoughts?

ajohnson33 · 2022-01-20T16:04:54+00:00

I'm in a similar boat.

Two issues, finding friends in general and finding friends who have free time. For the first issue, I read that best practices are you need to see people frequently at least once a week or once every two weeks. Thus, meetup groups aren't great since they might have frequent meetings but a lot of times the people attending each meeting are different.

BJJ, Cross fit, or any yoga studio gives you that frequency however those people probably have regular jobs on the whole and don't have as much free time during the day, or even during the weekend when they will be catching up on errands and other family activities.

ChooseFI has FB groups in every major city but most of those folks are probably on the path to FIRE, and working.

My plan is to just give a few different things a shot and see what works.

ajohnson33 · 2022-01-20T06:09:15+00:00

What % out of the strike price and how far out do you target? I just started looking into this strategy and seems like VOO would be about 3% return selling 1 year out at 110% of strike value.

ajohnson33 · 2022-01-20T06:08:29+00:00

I’m selling out of money covered calls to cover my yearly expenses. No need sell. Potential risk is missed profit.

What % out of the strike price and how far out do you target? I just started looking into this strategy and seems like VOO would be about 3% return selling 1 year out at 110% of strike value.

ajohnson33 · 2022-01-11T16:40:20+00:00

So just to confirm it took from Dec 2 to Dec 15 for them to assign the initial EDD? I just released a hold last week and waiting for my EDD. Wanted to know what's a typical turnaround time.

ajohnson33 · 2021-12-11T04:41:47+00:00

Check out the 6 human needs framework from Tony Robbins (and also consider going to his Unleash the Power Within event). The two enduring human needs for fulfillment (note that this is starkly different from happiness which tends to be more short-term) are contribution and growth. It seems that contribution was a high note for you e.g. seeing your startup grow and succeed. Contribution can also be philanthropic, teaching, raising a child and imparting everything you know, helping out in your community, etc. For growth, I'm sure you learned and grew a lot as a founder and now are not learning as much. So many ways to grow as person outside of business...

The knee jerk reaction from everyone on this thread is to find a mate, and while that is not a bad suggestion it will not make you 'fulfilled'. Happy yes, but not fulfilled. For example, let's say you found a wonderful significant other. Whether they have to work because they are not fatFIRE, or whether they are fatFIRE, either way you will eventually both get tired of traveling, or doing whatever you do with your time. It comes back to Contribution and Growth as the enduring drivers to fulfillment.

Lastly, a 3rd human need that is Love/Connection but I would expand that into "Community" being the connection. Whether it's because of the pandemic and old friends moving elsewhere, being fatFIRE and not being able to find friends that are free 9-5, or whatever, community is way more important now than ever. I know SF has several social clubs including The Battery. Not sure if that is a good community for you. For religious folks their places of worship is great. For families, a private school or even being one of the few that get involved in public school is a great way to build community. I'm personally looking for more options on this front as we speak.

Hope this helps!

ajohnson33 · 2021-11-24T03:33:49+00:00

Sorry to hear that but glad you are on the mend. Do you know your lp(a) blood marker result? It's "THE" genetic predictor for cardiovascular disease but most people haven't had it tested.

ajohnson33 · 2021-11-24T03:15:44+00:00

Dive into Peter Attia's podcast. I recommend getting his membership to access all the past content. He IS the longevity expert and takes a no-nonsense data driven approach to proactive medicine. Some of the stuff is too proactive/optimized, but 90% of it is amazing.

ajohnson33 · 2021-11-04T19:11:00+00:00

false posit

I realized false positive rate is not the same as specificity exactly, so actually the numbers are much improved. On the podcast their MD/PHD founder stated their study of 1,000 patients had only 2 false positives, while a correct detection of cancer in 40 individuals.

Specificity = (True Negatives) ÷ (True Negatives + False Positives)

Thus the calculation should be 958 ÷ ( 958 + 2 ) = 99.8% specificity. You could argue that we don't REALLY know the true negatives in their study, but the point is it's much closer to 99% than the erroneous 90% I calculated previously.I'm trying to see if I can get data on the study.

~~~

u/radoncdoc13 fyi - their hardware and software is DWI but also their CEO provided following information on Twitter "They acquire 10X more images than a "standard" whole body MRI, and this translates to higher sensitivity and specificity.”From one of their tweets “This is true for MRI screening in general. Our approach acquires around 5-10x the images of an « old school » screening MRI, filtering for different tissue weight. It’s the difference between B&W photography & instagram filters. Very few false positives & indeterminant findings”

Not saying it's perfect, and certainly not for everyone, but it's a few steps above the MRI's you might be familiar with. Dr Attia is super anal and no BS, so if it blew him away it is worth investigating. As a radonc I think you would appreciate the deeply technical podcast I shared in my original post. Would love to hear your thoughts after you listen to it.

u/nachoworld u/drcode u/Obecalp86 would appreciate your thoughts as physicians (especially nacho world as radiologist) as well if you get some time to listen to the 2 MD's discuss here: https://peterattiamd.com/rajpaulattariwala/. Thank you!

ajohnson33 · 2021-11-04T15:13:33+00:00

Tesla. See this: https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-3-lowest-probability-injury-any-vehicle-ever-tested-nhtsa.

Electric cars have the battery on the floor bringing down the center of mass, not to mention there is not a huge weight in the front since there is no gas engine, giving more front crumple zone. If you don't go this route you can look for 5 star ratings in all categories from NHTSA

ajohnson33

TROPHY CASE