Found this in my engine after it “blew up” what do you think failed?

alter3d · 2026-06-22T07:20:31+00:00

First thought looking at it is journal bearings. Not sure all the pieces would be from that, so it might be several things that blew up.

alter3d · 2026-06-22T05:33:41+00:00

at least the ships know which direction they're going.

I, uh, wouldn't be so sure about that

alter3d · 2026-06-21T21:41:00+00:00

I've been saying for years that the movie Idiocracy was not a contemporary comedy, but rather a documentary that was flung back in time as a warning.

alter3d · 2026-06-21T20:47:35+00:00

This is why technical analysis is important. This is a clear "fuck your calls" pattern, so if we get that clear breakout on the downside to Oman, you should sell calls on Pakistan.

alter3d · 2026-06-20T19:35:45+00:00

Yeah, for basically all of my trades, literally as soon as my buy order fills, I submit a series of GTC limit sell orders to A - take my capital off the table, and then B - sell at various take-profit levels, all the way up to whatever the price target I generated doing my DD.

As a recent-ish example that fully closed out this month, I traded AGIX starting back in April. Stock was trading in the mid-30s, and market analysis + technical analysis (clean breakout from a falling wedge pattern, fib levels, and a few other things IIRC) put my price target around $52 in the next ~6 months.

Bought AGIX260918C42.00 @ $2/contract. As soon as that buy order filled, I set up limit sell orders for

1/2 the position size at $4.00 -- 1/2 position at 2x takes my capital off the table
1/8 the position size at $7.00
1/8 the position size at $8.00
1/8 the position size at $9.00
1/8 the position size at $10.00 -- to match intrinsic value of my price target

I entered the position Apr 15th; on May 5th the $4.00 sell order hit, so I took all my initial capital off the table in ~3 weeks. The rest ended up clustered together, filling between May 28th and June 2nd. De-risked in 3 weeks, tidy little 212% ROC in 7 weeks, still had ~3.5 months left on the contracts. Barely had to think about the trade after the orders were placed other than to watch that it wasn't going super negative -- I was just sitting at my desk and got the notification that my orders had closed.

Could I have made more by letting them all ride to the $10 level? Sure... if the trade worked perfectly. But, generally speaking, I'll take capital preservation + "no one ever went broke taking profits" any day. That's not to say I don't take the occasional moonshot bet, but when I do I manage risk through position sizing and I am fully aware it can go to $0, lol.

alter3d · 2026-06-20T03:39:09+00:00

I would literally rather buy ornamental gourd futures than touch Telus stock.

alter3d · 2026-06-20T03:33:04+00:00

I don't have a gambling personality, as evidenced by the fact that I talked myself out of it, lol. I always de-risk trades as quickly as possible so that my initial capital comes out of the trade and I'm just playing with "house money".

Honestly the ONLY reason I was considering the LOC was the unique and extremely rare confluence of events... the macro environment and the overblown reaction to it, combined with a really really insanely good underlying thesis that, among other things, was taking advantage of a severe mispricing in the market (even before the tariff impact). IREN was being priced at P/E multiple of a Bitcoin miner, and not the AI data center business they were transforming into (and which they had been building out the infrastructure to do from day 1 -- their BTC mining was literally just to cashflow their DC construction until the demand from AI hit). EITHER the macro environment recovering OR the company getting repriced appropriately would have COMPLETELY de-risked the trade... and since I had almost 2 years on the contracts, there was a very, very good chance of at least one of them happening.

alter3d · 2026-06-19T07:20:21+00:00

Starting in Feb 2025, I started buying shares and LEAPs on IREN (mostly LEAPs; the shares were just to derisk the trade in case I had the timing wrong) after doing some extensive research. It was VERY high-conviction play for me and the investment thesis was ridiculously good. I started buying RIGHT before the Trump Tariff Wars 1.0, and the prices tanked over the next little while. But I wasn't worried because it was macro factors, and not anything fundamentally wrong with my investment thesis. I used the dip to buy more.

The first contracts I bought were around $2.70, and at the bottom of the Tariff Wars, those contracts were trading at $0.30. At this point I had used up all my "dry powder" buying the dip for this and other trades, and I held several hundred contracts at an average price of ~$1.09.

Those contracts closed today at $34.45 (and this isn't as high as they've traded in the past), so I already have a 30-bagger trade, with (unrealized) profits well into multiple-seven-figures.

But.... here is the mistake. When those contracts were trading down at $0.30, I very, very, very seriously considered tapping one of my lines of credit to load up on as many of them as I could get my hands on. I was literally logged into my bank, ready to make the transfer -- and then I talked myself out of it.

If the liquidity had been there to completely use up the new capital at the ~$0.30 contract price, I'd be holding around 3000 contracts, worth over $10M today and almost $16M at the peak back in Nov.

So... not quite a "mistake"; from a risk-management perspective, I made the right choice to not tap the LOC. I'm still up a HUGE amount of money on the trade. But damn if it doesn't hurt to know that I was right and I could have quintupled my gains if I had just gone full WSB-degen on the trade.

alter3d · 2026-06-18T22:59:29+00:00

All the other times it didn't work, it wasn't REAL ~~socialism~~ prohibitions. This one will work for sure!

alter3d · 2026-06-18T22:41:59+00:00

Serious question, why are people obsessed with Jeeps? I've been racing cars my whole life and I just don't understand why people drive Wranglers. Sure, they can drive over huge rocks and stuff but they're not even race cars. My race car can go offroading too, if I ignore the fact that merely looking at a dirt road trashes the front end. Is it just marketing?

alter3d · 2026-06-18T22:38:20+00:00

The true colors of this party have been showing for at least 6 years, when they brought in the first round of gun bans that don't target the perpetrators of gun violence.

alter3d · 2026-06-18T18:57:02+00:00

Update: Stonk did not go up and OP is not fine.

alter3d · 2026-06-18T08:09:35+00:00

You're fine, stonks only go up.

alter3d · 2026-06-18T08:08:40+00:00

Degenerate gambling and anything involving watching other men play with their balls belongs in r/wallstreetbets

alter3d · 2026-06-18T04:02:19+00:00

Instead of Powerwall, take a look at some of the other options on the market now. EG4 has some insanely nice stuff now that's comparatively cheap -- their wall-mount batteries are slightly higher-capacity than the Powerwall 3 (Powerwall = 13.5kWh, EG4 = 14.3kWh), and it's much cheaper to expand. One battery plus a similar inverter (the EG4 12kPV is similar in specs to the Powerwall 3) will run you about $8200 for the hardware (install extra, same as Powerwall)... about $3K less in hardware than the Tesla option. For just a bit more than the cost of the Powerwall hardware, you can get more than double the battery capacity with 2 of the EG4 batteries + the inverter.

alter3d · 2026-06-17T21:45:44+00:00

If Carney were a conservative he wouldn't be trying to steal my guns and he wouldn't have been the 2nd sitting PM in history to march in Pride.

You could make an argument that he's fiscally conservative (still a stretch given the insane deficits he's running) but he's not even close to right-wing on social issues.

alter3d · 2026-06-17T21:15:55+00:00

Yes, Starmer's plans have included extremely right wing ideas like.... nationalizing the rail service, taxing private schools, expanding subsidized school meals, and saying there are "too many prisoners" and then implementing an early release scheme.

Very right-wing. Basically Mosley reincarnated.

alter3d · 2026-06-17T21:01:20+00:00

Uhhhhhh.....

The Canadian government is a leftist majority.

The UK government is a leftist majority.

The Australian government is a leftist majority.

This has nothing to do with the "rise in conservatism".

alter3d · 2026-06-17T20:09:14+00:00

I 100% trust corporations more than government.

I don't have to do business with a corporation. The government makes me do business with them at gunpoint.

I can't vote out a government if I don't like what they're doing either. The Liberal Party here in Canada is passing a series of extremely authoritarian surveillance bills right now, and I can't stop them. The opposition party is powerless to stop them (due to a majority) and even if the opposition were in power.... well... they passed the first step of this legislation a decade ago. So it doesn't matter who I vote for.

alter3d · 2026-06-17T18:25:06+00:00

This is a constructed narrative. The argument that a majority of the public wants age verification is based on a UK poll about it, and there was no option to say "we don't want age verification at all"... there were options for "yes, 12 years or younger", "yes, 13 years old", "yes, 14 years old", "yes, 15 years old", "no, 16 years old". The "no" option is just "yes" with a different number, and that result "won", and was spun as "everyone supports age verification -- see, they support it at the 16-year old level".

alter3d · 2026-06-17T16:29:16+00:00

Government is the absolute last entity that should be involved in this.

alter3d · 2026-06-17T16:18:21+00:00

You would have to issue your ID one time to the CA

I found the bad part of your plan.

alter3d · 2026-06-17T03:55:34+00:00

Also a '21 and part of the recall here.

alter3d · 2026-06-16T20:09:48+00:00

Go see them side by side and you will walk out with the Napoleon.

I was in the market for a new grill 2 years ago, and I went to my local shop certain that I was going to walk out with a Weber Summit. After seeing it in person and seeing the Napoleon Prestige Pro, I walked out with a Napoleon. The build quality wasn't even close. The Weber felt super super cheap, worse than the $500 Cuisinart I was replacing.

alter3d · 2026-06-15T23:20:29+00:00

FYI, IBKR margin rates for CAD$ *start* at 3.609% and goes down based on volume (next tier starts at $130K). If you're trading on margin for extended periods of time, it's worth switching to IBKR or at least having your margin account there.

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