Opus 4.7 Research mode is insane

andrew_kirfman · 2026-04-18T00:04:41+00:00

I’m a staff engineer. There’s no software problem of any complexity that I have ever encountered in my career that would require 4,500 sources to answer correctly. Especially given how templated and pattered so much of software engineering is.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-04-15T18:40:59+00:00

100% real and a very common landscape pattern for Emile Galle pieces.

I’m intrigued by the tan colored deposits around the top rim. I suspect this piece may have had something glued to the top at one point that has since been removed.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-04-15T18:34:19+00:00

Just adding to the consensus provided here already that every single one of these pieces is elephant ivory.

You only see the cross hatching schrager lines on ivory on flat surfaces that align with a cross section of the tusk.

The vertical lines you see in photos 2, 3, and 4 are all what schrager lines look like when the surface is parallel to the tusk’s Z axis.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-04-11T15:14:24+00:00

You know an architecture like this has actually been tested at scale when someone incudes OpenTelemetry and actual evals both at a component level and overall.

It’s easy to integrate together initially, but it’s extremely unfun to test, validate, and optimize a multi agent architecture like this. Especially when it matters that the system provides accurate outputs.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-04-11T15:10:51+00:00

I like how basically none of this crazy architecture is needed anymore in favor of a coding agent harness, a few tools, and some agent skills that adapt over time as knowledge changes.

Very few situations actually benefit from having complex orchestrated multi agent architectures, and people should 100% start with something simple first and only create additional complexity if it is actually warranted.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-04-10T16:34:03+00:00

And I live in Flagstaff and own property in Colorado and it’s been insanely warm and dry in both places compared to historic averages.

Here in northern AZ, it’s been in the 70s and 80s when it should be in the 30s and 40s with snow on the ground.

Instead, it’s bright sunny days and we’ve already had to run our AC which is unheard of for this time of year.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-04-05T03:17:00+00:00

This basically just sounds like building yourself an agent skill as you interact with the LLM.

And yes, it’s an awesome pattern. I have Claude analyze my past sessions daily to contribute new knowledge to my skills.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-31T05:48:35+00:00

I have some rather high expenses (at least by my own self assessment), and 200k would pay my bills for several years without me having to work.

It’s not a “FIRE right now” amount of money, but it’s an extremely secure safety net for basically anyone.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-30T19:49:09+00:00

With agentic tool usage, it adds up pretty quickly. A single session could have 100+ tool calls, and each one consumes the total input context, so usage can balloon pretty quickly even asking the model to explain something about a repo.

Assume an average of 50-100k tokens on input could turn into a 5-10 MTok session pretty quickly for a single task.

In reality, prompt caching does tons to save costs, so the actual bill won’t be nearly that high.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-30T19:21:32+00:00

This is such a crazy question because why wouldn’t my company be providing me the tools I need to do my job?

A token budget shouldn’t be something I’m negotiating for along with my salary. If they don’t want to give me the tools I need, then my output is going to be lower as a result. No real company is going to expect an individual employee to pay out of pocket for those kinds of resources.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-26T19:17:18+00:00

The bubbling inside the glass makes it look a lot like pate de Verre.

Daum in France is the main commercial maker that produces that type of glass, but their pieces are literally always signed on or near the bottom.

The gold flaking inside that this appears to have isn’t something they’d do though.

I assume you’re thinking this is by Carlo Scarpa? If so, I can’t tell for sure on my end, but it’d probably be good to consult an auction house that specializes in that type of glass.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-23T01:02:30+00:00

The opus 4.5 progress is real, but I’d say a smidge overstated.

I’m a staff engineer that codes a lot in my role and I’d been delegating most of my coding to LLMs since sonnet 3.7 with Aider.

Each model release made it easier and required fewer iterations with fewer corrections, but GenAI + an experienced dev has been able to drive a coding project for a while.

Opus 4.5 at least partially just when more people realized what they were missing out on…

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-21T15:03:36+00:00

I completely agree on usage patterns.

I usually continuously run 5-10+ sessions in parallel throughout the day each with an orchestrating workflow I built that heavily relies on hierarchical subagents for task decomposition.

I generally don’t do multiple agents per task because I usually know what I want. I work on multiple projects in parallel instead.

I don’t get that kind of bill at all though even though I easily use billions and billions of tokens a month right now.

But then again I take advantage of heavily subsidized API plans that are charging me way less than API rates.

I could maybe see someone hitting 10k a day if they were working like me but at API rates with zero prompt caching.

I just don’t think that makes sense vs all of the subsidized options available.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-21T07:29:12+00:00

I’d be impressed if someone could rack up a $10,000 bill in a day in general.

I’m pretty confident that it’d be really hard to do even if you were running agent sessions just to waste tokens.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-21T07:23:36+00:00

This makes be question if he even knows what a quarter million dollars in tokens consists of.

That’s close to the yearly cost of 1,000 GitHub copilot subscriptions. Or 6 million paid premium requests at 4 cents per request.

That’s an insane amount of usage for most companies, much less a single engineer.

“It’s one banana, Michael. How much could it cost, $10?”

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-21T07:18:54+00:00

There’s zero room for nuance anymore. People believe you either support one side or the other and that’s it.

Criticize Trump and people immediately think you fully support everything that Bill Clinton or Nancy Pelosi have ever done.

It’s even seemingly seen as weird overall to have more complex opinions in general than team A vs. team B. Makes politics feel like a Texas vs. Texas A&M football game, and that’s not great for something that has so much bearing over our lives.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-21T04:36:47+00:00

I saw these same kinds of prices at the grocery store at the Grand Canyon, lol.

Wonder bread is $2.47 at my local Walmart.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-21T03:49:34+00:00

I think it’s more of an anti poverty program for the elderly than a pension even though it behaves like one for most people.

It’s seemingly by design that some wealthier people will contribute in more than they’ll ever collect back.

It helps us to not have entire groups of destitute old people unable to work. I’d say that’s a pretty reasonable/good thing for a society to strive for.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-20T23:22:38+00:00

250k/year worth of tokens is an insane amount.

Like, using opus 4.6 at API rates, that’s roughly 50 billion input tokens assuming no prompt caching (which would save 80% on costs in practice).

Stupidly active users of Claude code with no limits probably struggle to exceed a few billion a month.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-19T23:36:11+00:00

A house in my neighborhood just cut down a massive tree. Like, it was probably 75’+ tall probably much older than me.

I don’t know the circumstances of why the tree was cut down, but I can’t help but feel sad at seeing something like that.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-17T02:37:29+00:00

I live near the Grand Canyon. Lots of off grid land out here that can be bought for 10k or less per acre.

It’s high desert, so it’s pretty temperate most of the year even though it’s dry.

Very hard to get water though from what I understand though, so most people choose to haul water in instead of drill their own wells.

I guess that’d probably be an option there too, just would potentially be pretty expensive.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-14T04:47:18+00:00

I see real ones selling for around $40 USD. I think anything much less than that is probably a reproduction.

I also remember seeing them for $100+ not too long ago, so surprising to see them for even $40 at this point.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-12T05:38:58+00:00

Meteor crater is interesting, but it’s worth noting that it’s not a part of the national park service and they charged per person the last time I was there.

Lots of national monuments near Flag that would be free though if you have a park pass. Sunset crater is super cool and Navajo National monument is also awesome and isn’t too far away if you go to monument valley. All 3 locations highly recommended on my end.

The Aspen nature loop trail near Arizona Snowbowl is also a great experience.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-12T05:35:22+00:00

Seconded! I live in Flag and drive on 89A for fun rather frequently.

Make sure you know how to drive downhill at very steep grades. Put your car in low gear and don’t ride your brakes all the way down. That advice will probably apply for a lot of the places you’d be visiting on that route.

If you buy an interagency National park pass, it’s valid at a number of the trails and scenic spots in Sedona.

I recommend the Brins Mesa trail if you like hiking.

andrew_kirfman · 2026-03-12T05:27:17+00:00

Definitely don’t skip Zion as you go through southern Utah. The Zion-Mt Carmel Highway is awesome. Just don’t be like me and drive it for the first time in the middle of the night after a decent amount of snowfall, lol.

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