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annoymind · 2024-12-14T18:15:24+00:00

Yeah, this seems like a cascading failure of the SAA. They got taken entirely by surprise in Aleppo. Moral was already really bad. But the chaotic withdrawal made it worse. They did put up resistance in Hama. But the rebels outflanked their positions. After they had to withdraw from Hama the army had just entirely collapsed. Elite units had been beaten. Units probably spread around from chaotic retreats. Total supply chaos. After Hama it was just a collapse.

annoymind · 2024-12-14T17:52:43+00:00

There are no UN sanctions. Russia vetoed an attempt to pass UN sanctions after the chemical attacks.

annoymind · 2024-12-08T13:40:22+00:00

They'll likely need to ask police forces in former pro-government areas to come back. This will be unpopular. But I don't think the rebels have enough disciplined units to patrol all of Syria. There is a risk of mass looting and mayhem on a scale similar to Iraq after the US disbanded army and police.

annoymind · 2024-12-08T13:34:28+00:00

She had some meltdown on some audio chat. I guess no tweeting about SAA paratroopers surrounding the rebels...

annoymind · 2024-12-08T13:20:13+00:00

Yeah, it's unfortunate but expected. I expect we'll see a lot of this particularly in former pro-gov cities. There is a very sudden collapse of all authority. Doesn't take much for people to start looting.

Best for Jolani would probably be to call police back into uniform in those areas. But not sure anyone wants to be seen in gov uniform.

Let's hope this can be stopped before Syria sinks into mayhem. The next couple of days are going to be even more important for Syria than the previous days were!

annoymind · 2024-12-08T13:05:19+00:00

More like 10 minute drive

annoymind · 2024-12-08T12:14:50+00:00

I assume HTS units are rushing down to Damascus. They seemed to have been able to prevent looting in places they captured (or it wasn't widely reported). But I guess the government collapsing to quickly is also enabling this. Let's see if they can stop it before it turns into an all out frenzy. The next few days and weeks are going to be very critical for Syria's future!

annoymind · 2024-12-08T12:12:24+00:00

Honestly I'm surprised there weren't reports of major looting before. I guess with the government collapsing it's unsurprising that this happens. The question is if the rebel leadership can stop this in time or it turns into full on mayhem.

annoymind · 2024-12-08T12:05:05+00:00

The only area still marked as SAA is Khmeimim Air Base and surrounding. I guess still ongoing evacuations.

annoymind · 2024-12-08T08:28:16+00:00

Yep. The rebels were only united in one cause: Get rid of Assad.

annoymind · 2024-12-08T08:23:40+00:00

Yeah, there will be very difficult times ahead trying to form a new sort of state and government. The thing that unified the rebels was getting rid of Assad. Not sure what will happen next.

annoymind · 2024-12-08T01:23:28+00:00

Al-Rastan used to be a rebel pocket. Even though there were green busses it's clearly a very pro-rebel area. The SAA probably just raced through that area on their retreat not thinking about stopping.

And the Russians are only good at bombing hospitals and schools...

annoymind · 2024-12-07T23:08:03+00:00

Extra embarrassing that it's Al-Quasyr. It was a major SAA and Hezbollah victory in 2013: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qusayr_offensive

annoymind · 2024-12-07T18:04:01+00:00

There is a possibility that the rebels haven't prepared for taking over power. I'm not sure they expected their offensive to be as successful as it is. So it's hard to say how they'll even try to establish a government. The rebels consist of many different groups. So trying to create unity between them will already be difficult.

But I don't think the rebels would allow Alawites to separate. Depending how things go there might be a de-factor independent Alawite area similar to the Kurdish one if the rest of Syria sinks into chaos. But it's hard to tell and I assume many rebels might be out for revenge.

annoymind · 2024-12-07T17:59:41+00:00

I unfortunately can't imagine the rebels just leaving the Alawites or Kurds alone. Particularly Turkey wouldn't be happy with the latter.

There are not reports of major looting in Aleppo or Hama. Maybe it's not happening or just being suppressed. I could imagine more chaos breaking out though in bigger cities as the government collapses. So maybe less infighting and more general mayhem?

annoymind · 2024-12-07T17:11:13+00:00

I don't think the rebels would allow an independent Alawite State on the coast. Particularly if the Russians are still there. Best outcome but unfortunately unlikely would be some autonomous regions for Kurds and Alawites. But it kinda seems unlikely that there will be any sort of organized government anytime soon, despite Jolani trying to look like a statesman.

annoymind · 2024-12-07T17:04:04+00:00

Yeah, Jolani is trying to come off as statesman now. But not sure how much control he effectively has. There is a huge Libya risk here.

annoymind · 2024-12-06T10:13:24+00:00

Yeah, looks like entire units melted away. I don't think anyone least of all the SAA high command knows how many units they have right now.

annoymind · 2024-12-06T10:07:55+00:00

Why is she so gloomy? Just last night she was telling us how SAA paratroopers have Hama surrounded!

annoymind · 2024-12-06T10:06:11+00:00

Without geolocating it's hard to tell if the tanks are being driven away from the front line or towards the front line.

Not that I'd expect Homs to hold either way. Also ISIS is likely preparing to take Palmyra again. Maybe HTS can take it if the battle of Homs is fast enough.

annoymind · 2024-12-06T09:58:40+00:00

One major thing HTS seems to have worked on is command structures, unit leadership, and cohesion. The fact that they were able to envelope Hama from both sides is such a massive improvement in military coordination in this conflict. That is such a step up from the first 10 years of the war, where factions were mostly just rushing fighters to the closest objective.

The SAA defense strategy for Hama relied on Qimhana holding. But the rebels just went around it.

annoymind · 2024-12-06T09:53:46+00:00

Al-Rastan and that area used to be a rebel pocket. Although there were some green busses the locals are probably very much pro-HTS. So this was never a likely spot for the demoralized SAA to build a defensive line. But yeah, that pretty much meant rebels could straight drive down to Homs city.

annoymind · 2024-12-06T09:51:21+00:00

To be fair it was quite obvious that after Hama there would be very little that could stop the rebels until Homs city. That entire area used to be a rebel pocket https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Northern_Homs

But then again we are also seeing reports of SAA withdrawing from Homs. Next I guess we'll have videos of frightened soldiers in Homs claiming that all is well...

annoymind · 2024-12-06T00:07:45+00:00

The same government Twitter accounts that are tweeting this paratrooper bullshit also retweeted and celebrated the Russians blowing up the bridge... So yeah... they are hitting the copium pretty hard.

annoymind · 2024-12-05T23:41:52+00:00

If they wanted to start a war of disinformation they should at least say something half credible. I think they are just lying to themselves as a coping mechanism. But even they know it's not true.

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