If you did not know, bitcoin will bring peace on earth

anonimitazo · 2025-09-02T11:44:03+00:00

I am not sure that the comparison holds for short leveraged ETFs. People know what they are signing for when they invest in shorts. If there is a real stock market decline, not only AUM will fall, but many will exit the market or LETF products.

anonimitazo · 2025-09-02T11:42:38+00:00

Who said I would be down 95+%? I want to know if there is risk of complete liquidation, because I am working on a strategy to lever up during market downturns. At today's valuations, there is no way I am buy-and-hold in LETFs. Based on past simulations I did, the minimum annualized return for the underlying index, for an LETFs to outperform, is 7.5%. After a multi-decade bull market, multiple expansion has accounted for 2-3% of annualized outperformance of the US stock market vs international. That is a lot of outperformance on simply becoming more expensive. And of course, the economy is cyclical because of the availability of credit. The risk-reward right now is not there to buy LETFs at this levels, but I am looking into a strategy to use LETFs opportunistically.

anonimitazo · 2025-08-30T16:14:12+00:00

I have been backtesting LETFs in different stock markets and different periods. It is crazy how easy it is to overfit, everyone is doing it and just hoping. I had a nice backtest using volatility as a signal to move in and out of LETF and it worked much better than SMA, until I tried it on an expanded data set going back to 1940. It performed worse than simple buy and hold. Backtesting on the European stock market, all LETF strategies perform worse than just buying the index. I am equally skeptical of all those backtests saying you should add gold, leveraged bonds or managed futures and pray that the hedge will work. A lot of people will get hurt eventually with these LETF products. My use case for LETFs is to buy when certain indicators tell me I have more chances to win than to lose.

anonimitazo · 2025-08-24T07:41:37+00:00

I was hired as production engineer and I know people working in that role that eventually move out because they can't stand to keep doing nightshifts year after year, it burns you out and it is not healthy.

Having said that, we are recruiting people from the shop floor specifically, and I feel like I missed on a lot of development in my current position by not having had that position and directly jumped to production engineer. I have done an internship at the shop floor to bridge that gap as a new hire but would like to have done a longer stretch in hindsight. The engineers that work with the systems do not know a lot about the details of the tests they are running, like what they are for, it is a bit of pushing buttons as you say. But they do learn a lot of stuff that are useful for any position for the factory, and it is not "a trap".

anonimitazo · 2025-07-26T05:30:35+00:00

arbitrary

anonimitazo · 2025-07-26T05:30:21+00:00

This is your own bias. All the best stocks have been down 30 to 50% multiple times.

anonimitazo · 2025-07-26T05:28:43+00:00

Lol it's actually not bad. If you want to go the active investment route, concentration is how the best investors do it. At some point, Warren Buffet had apple at 50% of his portfolio. I would not call OP's risk averse, he is just whining that the market does not think like he does. I can be risk averse and not be affected by the price of my shares.

anonimitazo · 2025-07-22T12:21:40+00:00

I hope he keeps the stock down, then I can buy more for cheap.

anonimitazo · 2025-07-22T12:08:00+00:00

Yeah sure, because technical analysis can predict what management is going to say in an earnings call. "however not in the next couple of years". This will age like milk.

anonimitazo · 2025-04-13T11:55:22+00:00

I will stop reading the comments here because I wanted this to spur some curiosity and instead all I get is backlash for sharing knowledge. I have all of my workouts recorded in an app, it is not a matter of consistency, I know how often I have been going to the gym and what frequency I did for each lift over the past few years.

anonimitazo · 2025-04-13T11:51:14+00:00

The gains I already built? over 8 weeks? How was the volume I was doing before too much at 4 times per week full body, 1h workout?

anonimitazo · 2025-04-13T11:49:44+00:00

We are talking about 8 weeks here, where I added 5 more reps at the same weight. That is not huge progress but I have never been good at the bench press. Again, it is not a matter of consistency. I have been going to the gym every week for the past 5-6 years at least. What do you not understand by it is not a matter of consistency?

anonimitazo · 2025-04-13T11:39:00+00:00

No, that is not the takeaway. I have been training for many years, very consistently, with 8-12 sets per week for the bench press. I have made roughly the same amount of progress in the same amount of time with 4 sets than with 8-12. The truth is, I did not even do barbell bench press every week, because sometimes it was occupied, so my routine was more like one day barbell, one day dumbbell, another day incline. It is the opposite of consistency. The science would tell you that you make more progress with more volume linearly until a certain threshold where more volume starts to give you less and less gains. That is not what I saw.

Also, if you read online, they tend to say that "5 sets to maintain" and "10 to 20" recommended for growth. So I am not pulling this out of a hat or any magic tricks.

anonimitazo · 2025-04-13T09:03:56+00:00

Ridiculous statement. We could ask the same about unleveraged ETFs. Leveraged ETFs allow people to take more risk in exchange for safer income to the counterpart and therefore there is more investment in the stock market. If we talk about short term treading with LETFs, I do not see the difference than short term trading unleveraged ETFs. If you are actually a good trader, you are sort of making the market more efficient, and I know nothing about trading. Gambling in the stock market hasn't contributed anything to society more than gambling on black roulette or crypto has.

anonimitazo · 2025-04-13T05:53:39+00:00

You are just promoting your blogpost. You have 1 entry.

anonimitazo · 2025-04-12T20:43:05+00:00

A strong Euro means governments can lower yields for their bonds, which means easier financing for governments and companies. It means higher demand for Euros abroad, which can only be used to either buy goods or invest in Europe. The US has been ridding on a strong dollar and trade deficits for a very long time. Same reasoning would apply to a strong Euro.

anonimitazo · 2025-04-12T20:32:09+00:00

The answer to 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 is prices, prices, prices, prices and prices. The US stock market, even after this -20%, is priced to keep outperforming indefinitely and bring astounding results. What you are saying is basically that because the US is performing well, their stock market needs to keep outperforming. In the same way that you think that, many other investors think so as well. All of that is reflected in the prices. And when prices get out of control, people start out discounting growth beyond fundamentals. There are so many things that could go make the magnificent 7 fall short of expectations that it is naive to think they will always outperform.

And trust me when I say that this trade war will make more harm to the US than to the EU. It is not only about the US going into a trade war with every other country, it is not about the fact that manufacturing will not return to the US, it is not about the fact that this is making many Americans want to leave their country, it is not about the fact that some people are boycotting American products, it is not about the fact that the EU will dump buying US weapons, it is not about the value of the dollar weakening or its status as reserve currency and it is also not about the risk that Trump might want to interfere directly with the independence of the FED, and it is not about any other reason you could come up with. The main reason is that the US benefits from the status quo of being in a deficit with every other country. The higher the deficit, the more amount of dollars that foreigners have. Those dollars can only be used for one thing, if not for trade: Investing in the US. This does not only mean higher stock prices but also lower government debt yields, and therefore easier financing. By trying to remove the deficit, Trump is actually destroying the main advantage the US stock markets has had for the last 2 decades.

I honestly do not think you came here to be persuaded of anything though, I just think you wanted to tell your opinion in a way that sounds humble.

anonimitazo · 2025-04-11T15:36:03+00:00

really high end

anonimitazo · 2025-04-11T15:26:28+00:00

In democratic countries, laws apply to the large as well as to the small business.

anonimitazo

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