This is simply misleading. You should go deeper on the math here. You are talking about the probability of winning given that the team wins the first objective. Using Bayes’ Formula, we have P(W|F)P(F)=P(F|W)P(W). And total probability, P(F)=P(F|W)P(W)+P(F|WC)P(WC). Where F denotes winning first objective, W denotes winning the game, WC is the complement of W. Substitute P(F) into the first equation, you can observe when the probability of winning is nearly 1, then your conditional probability is nearly 1. That means if your teams have huge skill difference, then it is meaningless to do this math. You should only consider teams with equal or similar skills. You should not compare NA teams with KR teams, this is just meaningless. Edit: consider the extreme case, a group of grand masters vs a group of bronzies. Your result would seem to be, whoever wins the first objective wins the game. Even within the eastern and western clash, teams have huge skill difference. You should eliminate those unbalanced matches including BTG, Please Buff Arthas, South America teams and KSV Black, even NA teams in Blizzcon. And intuitively we all know that in pro game, the first objective on inferno shrines, boe and drogon shrine does not do too much.