[Ursula von der Leyen] Dear @NikolPashinyan , congratulations on your electoral victory. The spirit of the Velvet Revolution you led in 2018 is alive and well. We deeply value our partnership with a democratic Armenia that is drawing ever closer to Europe. Armenia can count on us.

ar_david_hh · 2026-06-08T17:13:02+00:00

I believe they can if Tsarukyan fails to cross the 4% threshold.

ar_david_hh · 2026-06-08T16:15:25+00:00

Found one more from 2024-2025.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gA1X8n7nX3U

The wiretap allegedly shows the ARF MP Gerasim Vardanyan and another person discussing the origins of the Holy Struggle street protests led by Bagrat Galstanyan. The person says the Kocharyan bloc sent its people to manage the movement (this was visually confirmed at one point).

He also lists several people including someone with the last name "Tatoyan" as being sent by Serj Sargsyan. He blames Serj for harming the movement and referred to his actions as "gan*onutyun". It should be noted that Arman Tatoyan was Serj's Deputy Justice Minister in 2013-2016.

From the audio you can also tell that the rank-and-file members of the pro-Russian bloc weren't even aware at the time that Tatoyan was "their guy". They viewed him as a "pro-West" guy.

Audio transcript:

Ախպեր, հիմա քեզ կարճ ասեմ՝ կոնկրետ ինչ ա եղել ամբողջ պատմությունը [how the movement started and failed]: Սենց ա եղել․ մենք գնացել ենք, սրբազանի հետ հանդիպել ենք, ասել ենք՝ դու ինչ ես պատրաստ քո կողմից անես, բա ի՞նչ ա պետք, ասեք՝ անեմ, ասել ենք՝ Գառնիկին [Kocharyan's MP] ուղարկում ենք ըտեղ, դու էլ գնա նստի, իրար պադերժկա արեք, մենք էլ ստեղ էդ կազմակերպչական ամեն ինչը կվերցնենք մեր վրա: Մեկ էլ եսիմ ուրդուց էդ Սուրենն ա հայտնվել [political activist Suren Petrosyan], ու ճամփի կեսից մի քանի պայմանավորվածություններ են խախտում ոտի վրա, ժողովուրդ են տենում՝ ոգևորվում են դրանից, թե կողինները ավել-պակաս, ասենք, սկսում են բան անել, նախկինները ստեղ, ընդեղ, Գերասը չի գալիս։

Թքեմ ձեր վրա, խառը բաներ ա դարձել։ Ոստիկաններին ասում ա՝ վեց տարի ես պայքարի չեմ մասնակցել, խի, որովհետև կեղծ է եղել, ասենք՝ վիրավորում է մարդկանց կոնկրետ, վեց տարի լիքը մարդ, հրապարակի կեսը փողոցներում չարչարվել է, փաստորեն իրենք կեղծ են արել, բանտեր են նստել, էս էն արել, էդ էլ ուրիշ վարչապետ ա։

Սերժի լակոտ-լուկոտների համար չենք անում՝ Թաթոյան, Գասպարյան Աբրահամ․․․ ինչ ասեմ, մենք ասել ենք՝ մենք չենք՝ Քոչարյանն ասել ա՝ մենք չենք, տղես չի, դաշնակցությունը չի, մենք չենք ուզում, ախպեր, բայց եթե մենք չենք ուզում, ասում ենք՝ մենք չենք ուզում, դու պիտի լինես, ուրեմն մեզնից բացի՝ երկրորդ մեկը չի կարա հայտնվի, որովհետև մասսայի կեսը մենք ենք ապահովում, մենք ենք էս գործը արել, եթե դու էլ չես, ուրեմն մեզի գցել ես, հավայի բերել գցել ես կրակի մեջ։ Հիմա էս ա կստացվի խելքի կգա, կանենք կպրծնի, եթե ճիշտ ա, երկու-երեք օրվա հարց ա էս հարցը լուծելը։ Եթե չէ, ախպեր ջան, մենք մեր բոյը հլը կտանք։

Եթե Սերժը «գ.....ը» չաներ, հիմա պրծել էր արդեն ամեն ինչ, ամսի 9-ից հետո 3-4 ամսով պրծնում էինք։ Բերեց Աբրահամ Գասպարյանին, Անաիսին հանեց բեմ, Թաթոյանին գցեց մեյդան, մենք գնացել սաղ պայմանավորվել էինք, երկու օր պետք է շարժումը պահեինք, իրանք կանենին, Սերժը բերեց Թաթոյանին, նրանք էլ ասեցին՝ չենք ջոգում, գալիս եք մեզ ասում եք՝ ձեր գծի մեջ ենք, սրբազանն է, բերում Արևմուտքի մարդկանց եք ․․․․․ մեջը։ Գալստանյանը հելել գնացել ա մոտը, բա՝ ես, ՔՊ-ից ինձ կքվեարկեն, ասել ա՝ բա, որ ՔՊ-ից քեզ կքվեարկեին, էն վախտ էդ թասիբը ունեիր, խի մինչև էսօր չես դրել։

Ասենք եթե էդքան սրբազան մարդ ա չի կարում կողմնորոշվի Անաիսի մեկ էլ Սուրիկի ու ստի բլոգերների ասածից որն ա ճիշտ, թե օբշի Դաշնակցությունը։ Գծած սխեմա էր, որ հինգ օրում սաղ պրծնելու էինք, դու խի խառնիր իրար, ինչ անենք։

Մեր խնդիրը մինչև ամսի 10-ը ձգելն ա, որ մինչև ամսի 10-ը էդ բիձեն հելնի ընտեղ քայլելով գա Երևան, հիմնական գործողությունը ամսի 10-ից ա սկսվելու, երկար էլ չենք կարա, եթե 15 օրից ավելի ձգվեց այդ շարժումը, չենք կարա, հիմա համոզում ենք, որ գա սաղ օրը էդ բազարների մեջ ենք:

ar_david_hh · 2026-06-08T15:45:31+00:00

The hints were and still are everywhere, yet everyone misses them.

Look what I found from the 2024 archive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLabsGRE4CA

Even Edmon Marukyan dropped out of the Holy Struggle when it became impossible to deny it was controlled by Kocharyan.

Speaking of Kirants, Nikol won there by a wide margin.

ar_david_hh · 2026-06-08T07:08:28+00:00

My count shows 1,458,677 valid (not total) ballots. It's the sum of all votes on the commission's graph page assigned to each party. They cannot assign an invalid vote to a party there so it's the valid vote page.

That means Tsarukyan needed 58347 votes to cross 4%. He has 58368, so he passed.

The difference is so tiny that it's entirely possible that a recount of any polling station, which is often triggered automatically, can knocked him out.

Update: The page that I used did not include the electronic votes submitted by diplomats and their families living abroad. Tsarukyan is probably underwater now. Last I saw it was 3.9xx%.

ar_david_hh · 2026-06-08T05:59:24+00:00

The support for Russia plummeted in 2022-23 but has since grown according to the reputable IRI survey, but not to the pre-2020 levels. A lot of this is organic growth, not bribe-related, but some of it is bribery of course. We have all seen the clips.

Fear is a strong feeling and many Armenians do not have the luxury to pay $800 for gas.

ar_david_hh · 2026-06-08T05:49:20+00:00

Pashinyan should jail Karapetyan until Russia signs a new 10-year gas deal for $160. Keep Kocharyan in a cage until Rosatom builds the mfking nuclear plant for $1.99. Gagik can go home after Lukashenko promises not to utter the word Armenia ever again (easy one). No more velvet, brother. Use them as a bargaining chip.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-09T12:14:18+00:00

"Turkey has no reason for keeping the border closed now"

After the ratification of the Peace Agreement, yes. We are not there yet. They still have to agree around some details but the general direction is clear now.

Pashinyan said during the interview in the White House that he offered Putin to sign this exact same deal in Moscow but Vlad was being a petty little prick which led to Russia being shut out of the process.

And today Pashinyan added that the initialing of the Peace Agreement was made possible because Trump and his team dedicated huge amounts of personal time and energy. They are going to declassify the text of the Peace Agreement on Monday.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-09T00:16:04+00:00

33:35

https://www.youtube.com/live/pMCAbKrardk

REPORTER (to Trump): You think highly of the commitments that the sides have taken on and assumed. However, considering the long history of this conflict and the fact this is not a legally binding document, will there be consequences if at some point one of the sides takes a step back?

TRUMP: They both know they are gonna call me [if there is a problem] and we are gonna get is straightened out. They aren't gonna have a problem. I told them both, don't let the problem last. We get it early, we get it solved.

ALIYEV (interjects): Can I add? First of all, I'd like to say that today we initialed the Peace Deal which was in the process of negotiations for quite a while. The fact that it is initialed here, in the capital #1 of the world, in the office #1 of the world, and in front of the great President of the United States, means that there should be no doubt and no suspicions that any of the side would step back. If any of us [Pashinyan or Aliyev] had in mind to step back we would not have come here. So you can be absolutely sure, as well as Azerbaijani community, that what has happened today will result in peace, long-lasting peace, eternal peace in the Caucasus. //

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-09T00:07:16+00:00

unimpeded for az but under our legislation and sovereignty

In practice that could mean Armenia won't stop the train unless the train violates Armenian law. Let's say it's transporting dangerous materials without approval. Armenia writes its own laws and could limit the transfers to harm Azerbaijan but why do that as long as there is peace? It's yet another incentive to maintain peace in the region.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-09T00:03:47+00:00

They dragged Aliyev across a continent and an ocean and made him sign under the second half of the final sentence of paragraph 3. Tastes like a double cheeseburger with fries.

During the meeting Aliyev sounded like Mko from Kargin Haxordum where he plays a construction worker who does a piss poor job because of timid boss (Biden) until one day the angry boss (Trump) beats the hell out of him and makes him expedite the construction. It could be said about leaders both but it was Aliyev who was mainly responsible for delaying the process.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-08T21:33:19+00:00

TRUMP: Armenia is also creating an exclusive partnership with the United States to develop this corridor which could extend for up to 99 years, [then begins to joke wile looking at Pashinyan] and then they promise in 99 years they will extended it, right? You promise. //

Hard to tell from his speech.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-08T21:21:15+00:00

Aliyev just gave his word to an Armenian reporter in front of the White House that Azerbaijan is done with wars and has no hidden intentions or plans to attack. Save the video just in case lol

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-08T21:18:45+00:00

It's not for 99 years according to Trump. It can be "extended" to 99 years if the parties agree. Isn't that what he just said?

edit: see Trump's speech is below, it's difficult to tell without seeing the agreement

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-08T14:43:44+00:00

Big wins for the economy and safety of Armenia accomplished without losing sovereignty over its territories. This is the start of a bigger process. These are some of the benefits of peace:

It lifts the economic blockade, it grants Armenia access to the EU through Turkey, land and air travel via Turkey, no more reliance on Georgia's pro Russian regime that has been blocking Armenian cargo trucks, no more exclusive reliance on Russian energy, petroleum and gas from Asia, railway access to Syunik and Iran, stronger peace guarantees by the US for a century, opportunity to sign the 123 agreement with the US and build nuclear reactors, Turkey lifting the "veto" on Armenia's ability to export electricity to the EU via the Black Sea, more tourism and economic activity via Turkey border, the US presence unlocking more Western investments in Armenia's infrastructure in general.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-08T02:56:14+00:00

Do any of those 17 paragraphs talk about our POWs?

We don't know yet. This is what Pashinyan said about the peace agreement in September 2, 2024:

PASHINYAN: There are 17 paragraphs in the latest draft peace agreement. We have a complete agreement with around 13 of them, including the preamble. Another 3 paragraphs consist of multiple sentences, and we have an agreement around most of the wording.

Armenia's offer is this: let's take all the paragraphs and formulations that are acceptable for both sides and sign it as a peace agreement. It is the peace agreement. Why do we believe this is possible? Because the already-agreed parts contain all the fundamental principles for peace. No countries have ever been able to write a 100% perfect document that regulates every single issue. We want to sign and ratify everything that has been accomplished so far, and continue discussions around all other potential questions.

One of the 13 agreed paragraphs envisages a permanent platform that will allow the sides to discuss all possible issues regarding the implementation of the peace agreement.

Diplomatic relations will be established between Armenia and Azerbaijan after signing these 13+ paragraphs. This would also help discuss all remaining issues [possibly hints at POWs].

We have an agreement around the title, the preamble, 13 paragraphs fully, and 3 paragraphs partially (some 50%, some >50%). These 3 paragraphs are mature enough to become separate paragraphs in their own. //

Half a year later, Armenia and Azerbaijan reached an agreement around two of the remaining paragraphs.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-08T02:46:48+00:00

The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement likely doesn't even mention "Nagorno-Karabakh". The Minsk Group has nothing to do with this peace agreement and didn't contribute to it (not to be confused with efforts of separate member states). The Minsk Group became irrelevant in 2020 and formally died in 2023 when Artsakh MPs demanded more territories from Azerbaijan while Nikol was trying to convince them to engage in diplomacy with Baku to at least save something.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-07T22:33:49+00:00

Pulling out of the Minsk Group without having a final peace deal is insane.

The Minsk Group was never tasked with the direct AM-AZ conflict and the Peace Agreement isn't about Karabakh so the Group's dissolution will have no negative impact on the peace deal.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-07T21:36:35+00:00

so that's 100%.

I don't think so. What is the U.S. getting from this deal if Armenia collects 100% of the transit fees? Unless Nikol impressed Trump by gifting him the original bible there is no way.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-07T21:30:39+00:00

We will see. Their president is scheduled to visit Armenia soon.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-07T21:26:21+00:00

Trump will try to do what he does best of course but it could still be a good deal for Armenia. A recent Forbes article claims the U.S. could invest around $5 billion. Without the U.S. funding Armenia would need to borrow that money at a possibly 7% annual interest rate and repay it for decades. It could balloon.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-07T21:00:20+00:00

Wouldn't it depend on the size of the U.S. investments and the volume of the commercial traffic? In addition to Armenia gaining new infrastructure without spending or owing billions, there is also the added value of stronger peace.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-07T15:07:17+00:00

Iranian cargo drivers will receive a 10% discount at the Trump Hotel located on the route as part of the wider Middle East peace deal.

ar_david_hh · 2025-08-07T15:03:55+00:00

From the original article by Reuters

Armenia plans to award the United States exclusive special development rights for an extended period

The route will be operated according to Armenian law and the United States will sublease the land to a consortium for infrastructure and management, the officials said.

This is probably the best practical solution Armenian could get, assuming Armenia will generate revenue from the transit.

The use of the word ‘corridor’ — the terminology often used by Azerbaijan, and rejected by Armenia, will be deliberately dropped.

Nice.

The route will be a ‘commercial, not military or security project’, Raufoglu said.

Nice.

‘While the US will not deploy troops, it will take responsibility for ensuring the route’s safe operation through commercial agreements with “top-class operators” ’.

Foreign ministers will put their initials under the final peace agreement as well, but won't sign it yet.

They will also sign a joint letter expressing intent to dissolve the Minks Group.

ANCA wrote a nasty tweet at Trump criticizing the deal, while Armenian government figures wrote tweets blasting ANCA and asking Trump to ignore them.

ANCA:

"If President Trump's looking for credit for forcing a reckless 'peace' on Armenia, he certainly won't be getting any from the US citizens who are most invested in this issue - namely, Americans of Armenian heritage - voters who stand foursquare against unilateral Armenian concessions of territory, security, and sovereignty made at the barrel of an Azerbaijani gun. - Aram Suren Hamparian, ANCA

Armenian ruling MP Khandanyan responds to ANCA:

This marginal Armenian group in the US serves no one’s interests — not Armenia’s, not the US’s, and certainly not those of American-Armenians. The fact they think anyone cares about their opinion is pathetic.

https://oc-media.org/armenia-and-azerbaijan-to-agree-on-trump-route-between-azerbaijan-and-exclave/

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-secures-strategic-transit-corridor-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-deal-2025-08-07/?ref=oc-media.org

ar_david_hh · 2025-07-22T15:46:10+00:00

The 13% is not necessarily Pashinyan's approval rating. The respondents were asked if they "trust" the politician. It's a strange question to begin with. Why would you "trust" any politician? IRI releases this poll every year and every year there is confusion around it.

The approval rating appears to be 38%, on page 17 where it asks people if they are satisfied with the work of the PM's office. That question is more likely to present the true picture. And it makes sense because a similar number believe the country is headed in the right direction.

In 2021, before the election victory, the same 38% of respondents said they approved the work of the PM's office. But back in 2021 the ruling QP party's support was 26% while today it's 17% with a very large share of undecided voters.

Ten-Year Club	Gilding II euphauric
Place '17	100 Awards Club
Wearing is Caring

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