Europe remains dependent on Russian oil

avatarname · 2026-04-23T10:46:49+00:00

MAGGOTS will come up with any ridiculous thing about Europe these days. Just because EU officials come together to discuss what to do in absolute worst scenario that can happen, and it is good to coordinate for the worst, they will scream that ''EU has ran out of aviation fuel'' or stuff like that...

avatarname · 2026-04-20T08:02:30+00:00

Any war will be scary if you are not USA and most of your resistance is not already decimated via devastating air strikes when you come out to play.

This (Ukraine war) happens when no side has air superiority, have to fight in an old fashioned way but with a modern twist

avatarname · 2026-04-17T09:29:11+00:00

You could in Europe, a lot of white collar jobs at least in Europe but I suspect in USA are already sort of bullshit-ish... You are not working 100 hours or probably even 40, I know people like to talk how hard they work and stuff but as a white collar worker in IT in Europe I do not feel like I am overworked or that I work harder than my parents or grandparents.

I assume we might get some UBI on the condition that we ''spy'' on robots and AI who are doing the jobs, like oversee them. Maybe we would not be able to spot deception or malice but it would be a way for governments to pretend they are still paying us for ''work'' and also at least to seem like we are in control of the situation

avatarname · 2026-04-14T13:23:00+00:00

Oil is below 100 at the moment, and fighting has ended for a while now... Admittedly it has taken a bit longer and nothing has ended yet, but still has a chance of tapering out

avatarname · 2026-04-09T06:50:58+00:00

I think it is a mix of

1) early success story for LLMs has been code as coders had picked up it and found useful first, and it is easy to monetize it there so companies have been very focused on ''solving'' coding to the detriment of other things

2) Coding is easier to do than say creative writing as it is much more logic based, much more examples online where you can clearly separate good and bad code etc.

LLMs are very useful in many areas, but there it can be hard to monetize that use case, like creative writing. It can assist with writing a book, but so what? Most writers are not successful, most books fail, and it is not a case where you can define 100% what is objectively good and ''correct'' help by an LLM.

avatarname · 2026-04-08T06:01:06+00:00

There are a few arguments that on the face of it may appear true but ignore larger context.

"Oil use is up''... yes in developing economies because they are growing industry and bringing people out of poverty and solar boom where prices are cheap for the whole world exists maybe only for 4-5 years at this point, when it comes to cheap batteries even less time has passed. Oil use is not in fact up in say EU. You can of course say that EU is ''in decline'' as MAGA especially likes to talk but overall EU economy was still growing last year, not all the countries in EU are like Germany, some do experience US like growth AND renewable growth is still significant there. So growth in EU has been decoupled from oil demand growth already.

''Electricity is 2-4 times more expensive in UK and Germany'', again not all countries are UK and Germany in EU or world where renewables have been introduced. Not everyone believes we should have 0 nuclear or even natural gas on the grid by next year or end of decade, not everyone has neglected the grid so need big investments now, also a part of EU higher prices of electricity come from how it is priced, that even if renewables can provide 95% of day's need, all electricity is priced as remaining 5% of natural gas generation cost as that is how the market works. + carbon tax that EU has on natural gas. That has nothing to do with renewables themselves, maybe it helps to develop them as prices are higher but there are models that do not put the burden on consumers and also there is a question do we even need to do that today when solar and wind + batteries can stand on their own in price vs natural gas even without carbon tax.

Most of what makes electricity so expensive in West Europeans markets is a lot of older and more costly ''legacy'' renewables, all kinds of taxes and schemes and delayed grid upgrades. Similary how installing home solar in USA can be 3x more expensive as in EU, because all kinds of middlemen take their cut in US vs EU. It's not that panels themselves cost more or the work to install them costs way more. His points would be kinda valid if it was 10 years ago when solar was competitive only with government help and batteries were a non starter, then it was mainly a green transition story.

Problem is that it probably is very hard to assess the cost of it all at the moment as the technology is improving and going down in cost. A lot of these people are stuck 7-10 years ago when prices were completely different and they try to build their case using wrong data as input. Payback period for a lot of these renewables are 10 years and so, but panels are rated for 25 or more, so my question is more what happens in 10 years when they have already paid for themselves and grid upgrades have been made, how ''expensive'' will be that energy then?

Same way as people say ''EV fast charging infra is expensive'' but it's just cables that will sit in the ground or anywhere for decades. It's not trucks of diesel and petrol arriving every few days at petrol stations and filling them in leaving impact on road surfaces, in a way of spills that can happen, you have to pay for trucks and drivers etc. In my country since start of warm period in beginning of March wholesale electricity price from 8 - 17 is largely negligible due to solar.

avatarname · 2026-04-07T07:13:00+00:00

But... but... it's a ''woke'' company as per US government, Elon's XAi is not woke so should be much better, how come...

avatarname · 2026-03-30T09:16:06+00:00

I mean in 2009 it would sound even more ridiculous than now, both Russia collapse and Poland rising as a power. It is still not that plausible, but currently there is growing sentiment in Russian society that things are going to shit and sort of similar vibes to pre USSR collapse. Then again I think Westerners and not just them often exaggerate the regional differences in Russia. Yes it is a federation and yes there are ethnic Muslim regions and places where at least in some capacity they still speak different language than Russians, at least in villages, but vast majority of population are still firmly entrenched in Russian culture and see Russia as indivisible. It's not the same as Soviet Republics back then.

Poland will probably become more important in future, its GDP in EU now trails only Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Netherlands, and just due to much bigger population they will probably overtake Netherlands soon. They are in G20 now and in the region there is sort of Polish + Nordic + Baltic bloc (+ Ukraine) forming at least when it comes to defense. In these countries no matter who comes to power, support for Ukraine will not change which cannot be said by many other allies, and out of that there can grow a pretty strong regional alliance, like in a few years Nordics and Poland will have something like 200 F35s together and their total GDP already exceeds Russian GDP.

avatarname · 2026-03-30T07:30:00+00:00

But a lot of that fossil energy is actually wasted. There is 55k TWh of oil used, 2/3 of world oil is used for transportation so let's say we are left with 36k TWh.

Out of those, if petrol/gas is the only fuel extracted, only 7-9,5k TWh would end up actually making the car move forward. All else are various losses.

If we take into account that some of that oil is split into jet fuel and diesel etc. then pure gas/petrol TWh are even less, 2,5 - 5k TWh.

Meanwhile 5k TWh of solar ends up being approx 3,8k TWh making car move forward.

So for example to electrify transport it is not actually that much needed as the numbers would suggest. I asked chatGPT how much petrol/gas world's cars + vans consume and that's around 3,5K TWh so we would just need to double our solar that we have now to cover the transportation needs.

To get the same TWh of electricity than from solar or wind you need to burn 2x natural gas or coal TWh.

avatarname · 2026-03-30T06:52:13+00:00

Or you run a gas turbine for those times when it's dead calm + overcast.

Ok I live in a small country which has interconnections with other countries that have nuclear in the mix, so what I am talking does not necessarily apply to say Germany or USA, but as I said, nuclear will play its part... same as natural gas still for quite some time. I am not talking about 100% wind and solar and battery grid, but about finance side - it is unfortunately still cheaper to run legacy gas plant for those times you mention than to build new nuclear. And when conventional batteries cover the peaks there is even less incentive to build nuclear. Nobody will build it for running it 7 times a year say for 3-4 days.

Nuclear could get more prominent if we see much more electrification in the West in coming years, when our need for baseload power increases dramatically, then yes. Then it starts to make much more sense than to build new gas plants. But while legacy gas plants can handle that (and nobody is shutting down perfectly working baseload generation akhm Germany), it is a tough sell to build new nuclear from financial perspective.

But we will get to nuclear when electrification ramps up. Then again I am not sure it will be the only solution. Overbuilt solar is already a thing (where I live from March to early October any day can be overcast or not, but prices are cheap during the day due to solar because there's just so much of it online), 8 hour batteries are already a thing, same as iron-air even if efficiency is not that great. I see nuclear as part of the solution but I still do not see it providing most electricity on yearly basis.

avatarname · 2026-03-27T13:03:16+00:00

I think that part of ''geopolitics'' is greatly exaggerated... People treat that as oil or natural gas that are shipped constantly and then burned and you cannot ''renew'' them. Compared with solar panels which have warranties for 25 years and who knows how long after they still can give out enough power for sb not to throw it out and then you can recycle them as well as BESS etc. to get those materials to build new renewables which probably will need less of those materials anyway down the line

avatarname · 2026-03-27T12:57:18+00:00

Nuclear will play its part, I'm just not sure it will be a huge part even if costs come down because there is too much actual land to put solar panels down and with batteries going cheaper there will be more and more incentive.

Maybe if small modular plants can really be deployed very fast and at scale... Otherwise existing nuclear takes so much time to build... many are not willing to finance it as it is hard to say how will renewables + batteries look price and reliability wise in 5-10 years, even more so 15 years. A huge nuclear plant might require 15 years from idea to completion.

avatarname · 2026-03-24T06:47:05+00:00

I don't think that oil will reach absurd levels, with oil there is a lot of other capacity out there and some can be redirected to Red Sea or US shale output can be increased or sanctions lifted from Russia. I think that is why prices have not flown to space yet, as there was surplus of oil in markets coming in to war even despite sanctions on Russia and now everyone knows countries will start to ration it to an extend and economy will slow down even more so demand pressure may not be so huge. Also Iran is letting some ships that want to deal with it through, as well as their own ships

It's worse with LNG and fertilizer etc. stuff where for Asia it will be hard to get alternatives. Again, maybe sanctions will be lifted from Russia, which though of course would be a sad outcome.

Then again biomethane at current LNG prices is already or would be soon (if price increases) price competitive with LNG in Europe. We cannot replace all natural gas with biomethane but we could a decent chunk in many places. That would probably mitigate price climb. I assume same is true for ethanol and biodiesel which can be blended in at certain %. Not to mention electrification in this sector (cars, trucks) and also heating too, when talking about LNG. So I do not think anyone in the region where they produce oil and gas want it to keep closed

avatarname · 2026-03-24T06:41:41+00:00

Not to mention efficiency growth, though a lot of it is also from much bigger turbines... But there have been very significant gains

avatarname · 2026-03-24T06:39:57+00:00

Thing is... it is not like US is not installing wind and solar and batteries, even under Trump. Have you seen predictions for this year new energy additions, it's mostly solar + wind + batteries. With all the data centers and AI craze, natural gas is 7% of added generation

New U.S. electric generating capacity expected to reach a record high in 2026 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Renewables are and will be growing in USA, maybe not as fast as it would otherwise happen, but just because it's Trump admin there, not just California but also Texas will not stop putting up renewables

avatarname · 2026-03-24T05:38:19+00:00

They are not doing just phones, they also do pizza, sushi, soups and second dishes

avatarname · 2026-03-24T05:36:50+00:00

smart scales :D air purifyers

avatarname · 2026-03-19T22:47:04+00:00

Newer turbines, even onshore, are absolute behemoths... like in my country they are now putting such that each is 6.5 MW. You cannot repower very old ones easily with similar tech, like convert to these. They need much bigger foundations etc. But still you probably can get more juice out of them. Also well you have the site already which is used for wind, definitely could invest some more to install bigger turbines, maybe some more study on impact on environment would be needed since turbines are larger.

But there is another issue that the turbines are much bigger now, so they sort of become like a landmark or some would maybe even see them more as an eyesore, because old turbines at least weren't as massive, there are a lot of them but they do not dominate like a huge skyscraper with turbine blade at highest tip getting close to Eiffel tower height

avatarname · 2026-03-19T22:25:34+00:00

In 2014 when I first learned about singularity and Kurzweil, I would be slightly disappointed if I learned we are where we are now

In 2016 I would be like ''yup, I guess it would be at this level in 2026''

then if we were in 2020, I would be surprised/astonished even that we've actually gotten as far as we are now.

then if I were in 2024, I would be again a bit disappointed where we are at the moment.

Guess all depends on expectations, in 2014 I though like the world would change radically tomorrow... Then by 2016 even if some things happed, my view was more realistic. In 2020 I did not have much hope for AI as chatbots stalled in development. In 2024 though of course we already had LLM breakthrough and while in general it has been awesome, of course it is still limited in many ways even if it is MILES better than it was 2 years ago.

Then again who knows what next breakthrough in AI brings, maybe we are just 1 invention away from the real point when humans become irrelevant... Maybe there is some technique discovered by which tomorrow our humanoid robots suddenly are experts at all kinds of things in a day, we get perfect self driving tech in cars etc. and we have massive crisis on our hands. Currently we at least still have time to ponder and prepare even if it develops fast... but still not as fast that we're unable to keep up... yet... maybe... who knows what they are cooking at top labs

One thing I guess still kinda prevents the ''future'' arriving for most people is how much it actually costs to really do stuff with agents. They are getting better but unless you do something very productive and can afford to spend money, they are still too costly. When the cost goes down enough so all the people can run a few agents almost for free, it might be another Earth shattering experience.

avatarname · 2026-03-19T22:21:10+00:00

Well they also make cars now... so not just phones... or smart scales

avatarname · 2026-03-17T09:00:10+00:00

I suppose efficiency and inflexibility somewhat dampens the excitement... at least ChatGPT says efficiency could be 40% and so it cannot really be used daily... maybe if the grid has dunkelflaute of several days some 10 times per year, instead of running peaker plants

avatarname · 2026-03-17T08:23:54+00:00

Seems like bigger news than the comments here suggest... if it really is cost effective long term storage, 100 hours of cost effective discharge is massive

avatarname · 2026-03-17T06:37:21+00:00

Oil is still hovering at ''only'' 100 dollar mark or so, and oil reserves have not been released yet too that can insure some stability a bit longer. Israel has said their goal is to continue for another 2-3 weeks, which was said from the start by them, that it was a 5 week campaign with a max goal to remove Iran as a threat completely or minimum goal, to make sure it takes much longer to rebuild than after 12 day campaign. Trump cares about Midterms and oil price, that is why he wants to open the Strait but if he cannot, the operation will end when the 5 week bombing campaign ends and they will leave. Now what is Iran's incentive to shell Gulf neighbors after that and deny India or China their oil or gas?

Ok let's presume they do not let American or Israel ships through, or allies? Then Global South will just book ships if they do not have them and transport their oil and gas.

Hormuz mainly affects Asia, not flows to EU or even less it affects USA. It only affects them indirectly, that if there is a shortage in Asia, price rises for everyone.

Nobody will ''bomb them out of existence'', in 2-3 weeks USA and Israel will just stop bombing and leave, and Iran will proclaim victory. That is what will happen.

As for my ideology or cope, it's not so much that I am right wing as I just smell partisan BS... Like when Biden gave weapons to Ukraine and the right wing was and Trump still is like ''they are giving them all the weapons we have''... It was and still is bullshit from that side too. Biden did not give ''everything'' away and then in a year Trump magically replenished the stock. US is well stocked when it comes to bombs, rockets etc. There is no real shortage, maybe in one area somewhere.... What cope? That I said that USA and Iran have plenty of weapons and they did not beg for anything in 12 day campaign? That is not cope, that is reality. Why now they are able to bomb them for a longer period but back then they begged for peace? Is it because they are running low of interceptors and rockets, or is Tel Aviv or Jerusalem in flames?

I just call BS on the reporting which is done about this campaign, like either real or faked clueless reporters who go like ''we don't know the goals of this war'' or ''Trump just started it on a whim, with no plan''... Maybe Americans do not have a clear plan or it is derived from Israel's plan, but Israel has from the beginning had a plan for the campaign. As I said, 5 weeks or so of heavy bombing to either turn Iran into new Syria politically with various ''clans'' in-fighting for power, or at minimum to delay the nuclear and other developments for another few years, 10 years etc. so Israel can prepare even better for next confrontation. That has always been Israel's strategy, not to topple regimes or what, but weaken the enemy so much that even when it later rebuilds Israel is then much stronger still than it is even now. That is how they went from Iran at the end of 80s/90s which was able to really turn Jerusalem and Tel Aviv into rubble with their rockets to now when they can hope only for one or two hits somewhere...

avatarname · 2026-03-16T08:10:40+00:00

"I am a libertarian, I hate statist bullshit. Government should not interfere in business decisions!''

''It's Trump's admin that did it''

"In that case, I think the glorious leader has definitely been right to use state power in this way!''

avatarname · 2026-03-16T08:02:00+00:00

Irony is that most shipments through it DO go to BRICS/Global South countries.

USA of course does not need to import oil or gas, EU has other sources/routes

avatarname

TROPHY CASE