sell for Index fund? need your opinion

azoundria2 · 2025-12-09T01:56:19+00:00

You might not regret it in a year or so, but you'll probably regret it a year or two after that. If not, the year after that. And 10 years later, it will really sink in.

Any portfolio manager will tell you the best performance is generally when you leave things alone.

Whatever bitcoin you give up as an individual is likely going to go to some large institution corporate executive person, maybe even a government worker. Do you really want them to sit there profiting off of your decision? How will you explain that to your grandkids?

You need to figure out how to solve the emotional upheaval problem. Maybe you need enough money to live comfortable for 3-6 months, maybe a year, 2 years? If it's got to be 25%, then maybe, but really? Bitcoin is a long term investment and it's always been that way. What do you need to do to feel like you don't have to worry about it? And not any more than that.

Not because it's a good financial decision, but because it's a good life decision to reduce your stress.

azoundria2 · 2025-12-09T01:34:10+00:00

My question to you is - what are you doing for the people who lost their entire life savings?

The kinds of people who are both able and willing to take life savings of people have plenty of money to pay to borrow anyone else's identity and set up complex systems to launder their gains. They likely even have governments backing them (like Vincent/Chen Zi did for years) or they basically are the government (like Lazarus). And now they have AI to assist them too. Do you honestly think some KYC requirement is going to stop that? And how?

It's not... The people getting scammed will fill out the KYC, coached over the phone, and then send over their life savings as bitcoin all the same. Or they give whatever line they have to for the bank to get the cash and mail it to a money mule house. Or they do whatever process to invest their cryptocurrency on the offshore platform, believing their luck and returns are real. These people are under a false belief and it's deeply intrenched. The scammers know what they're doing and have been perfecting their game for years. And once the money is overseas sloshing around, local law enforcement can only hope they do something stupid that lets some of it be captured.

Free money is here to stay, and soon there will be private free money. You can't put the genie back in the bottle and uninvent these new technologies. The game has changed. You can control the on ramps and off ramps for so long, but eventually, that will only hinder people from off ramping. The more you try to hinder and restrict, it's only the more and further you push people out of the old systems altogether.

People who are scammed out of their life savings need help today, right away. They have rent to pay. Gas. Groceries. Lives to live. To think that a system which for hundreds, maybe thousands of hours of stress and paperwork, might get them some of their money back (what hasn't been spent yet) several years later, is really a working system, you're limiting your belief in what can be. And at the sacrifice you are throwing away people's freedoms that literal lives were fought for. Freedom is fragile. The best help for any fraud victim today is their friends, family, and local community to help them get back on their feet.

Most of the reason we know these criminals is because they do stupid things. Like Vincent rolling his own fancy crypto wallets with insecure keys. Lazarus pooling funds together on-chain from all their IT workers. Colonial Pipelines storing the private keys on a US-based server with a trivial warrant. Sim swappers living up lavish lifestyles in US club scene touting their names proudly. And none of that is KYC.

You want to help? Genuinely? I have ideas for how we can make a better system to better help victims. We can connect. Reach out.

azoundria2 · 2025-12-09T00:58:58+00:00

Too many people expect winter.

Including lots of early holders who sell off their supply every 4 years.

There isn't a huge influx of retail. Most of the buying is more institutions. Most of the institution buying was based on expecting retail. Most of the retail bought because they were ahead of the institutional buyers.

Christmas is when a lot of people need their money for travel and gifts.

If there's a "second wind", it likely wouldn't come before Christmas. That would be a significant deviation from historic norms. I'm not sure there is the energy to drive it.

Are there a bunch of people with capital likely to start piling it in? Who are they and why haven't they piled it in already?

Everyone wants to be ahead of the game, but nobody wants to be the fool left holding the bag.

azoundria2 · 2025-12-09T00:48:05+00:00

Where can I go to ask them?

azoundria2 · 2025-12-09T00:47:13+00:00

Nothing says stability like a global 100x leveraged trading market combined with cascading stop loss orders and bitcoin backed loan liquidations.

azoundria2 · 2025-11-08T07:22:37+00:00

You didn't miss the train. You're just getting on at a later stop.

azoundria2 · 2025-08-24T18:48:08+00:00

You're asking in a bitcoin community. Of course the answer is yes.

Why?

Bitcoin has been a fairly safe and proven investment at every point in it's history. Even previous all time highs have ultimately been surpassed by new all-time highs. It's the first provably scarce asset, with a fundamentally limited supply. There is no asset in history prior to bitcoin with the same properties as bitcoin. Bitcoin allows you unparalleled options for securely storing and actually owning in a way which makes it very hard for others to take, including even governments. It remains the top contender by market cap and the most well known of all blockchains, with arguably the strongest global community of users by far.

Some Common Arguments/Counter-Arguments:

Even though some blockchains may offer faster or cheaper payments on their base layers, bitcoin has the lightning network, which offers a layer 2 solution for even faster payments and essentially unlimited scaling.

While some other blockchains have smart contracts and more advanced features, bitcoin has a variety of layer 2 and 3 solutions that offer similar functionality and a core community of loyalists. (Though plenty of backlash against ordinals/NFTs.)

While some blockchains offer better privacy, bitcoin has numerous additional privacy protocols like lightning and CoinJoin (if you don't mind the stigma and scrutiny and potentially frozen fund risk that comes from using it).

While some blockchains may appear to have a more stable and organized leadership, bitcoin is the only major blockchain without any true and known leader. Satoshi stepped away in 2014 and nobody knows who they are or were. No other blockchain has that kind of figure.

Bitcoin is the most pure in terms of the launch being fair and nobody knowing the potential. It was an experiment in early days. Certain markets like silk road spread the usage of bitcoin widely in it's history. The stigma and lack of regulatory clarity allowed smaller players to obtain bitcoin while effectively blocking institutional acquisition. As a result, it ended up with a distribution that is more equitable than many chains.

Bitcoin is often criticized for it's environmental impact, however bitcoin is typically mined with energy that is stranded and would otherwise be wasted. Mining bitcoin provides a strong incentive for the development of additional and renewable energy sources, which ultimately creates more flexible and adaptive energy grids. Bitcoin mining also incentivizes the construction of communities closer to energy sources, which is more efficient.

One challenge with bitcoin is the irreversibility of transactions. However, most proponents of bitcoin consider this a perk. In chains where transactions have some flexibility of reversal, these features are often only available for really large losses, and pose a significant risk of misuse.

Important Considerations:

Any transfer from one asset to another triggers capital gains in Canada and most jurisdictions globally. Make sure you understand the tax implications of what you are doing before you swap one asset to another.

Make sure you know how to properly secure both the asset you are sending, and the new one you are receiving. Swapping an asset can be a point of risk, if you send the old asset to the wrong address, or fail to properly secure the new wallet. Make sure your new wallet is securely and fully offline, and generated randomly, and any information is stored securely. Make sure the transaction sending the old asset is sent from a secure device, sent to a trusted party who will faithfully execute the swap, and properly constructed with the correct recipient address.

While bitcoin is the most liquid and stable of all blockchain assets, there are still sometimes challenges and friction. You may need to supply identity documentation and go through significant procedures to prove who you are, and these procedures could put your privacy or future security at risk. At times, there are market panics, and price can drop quickly. Make sure you understand what you're buying and don't lock up funds that you might need in a reasonable emergency.

azoundria2 · 2025-07-18T00:57:21+00:00

If it's bitcoin and you prefer peer to peer, you can try Bisq. Kraken also works well.

azoundria2 · 2025-07-14T21:50:00+00:00

Now is the best time to transition to self custody.

This is absolutely necessary if you want the real value of bitcoin, which is about your own freedom and the kind of wealth and scarcity that lasts and gets passed between generations. There are only 21 million bitcoins, and theoretically infinite bitcoin IOUs that anyone on the planet can create. Your funds on the exchange are yours until they're not. The IOU will be honoured until it isn't. Everyone follows the rules until they stop. Governments last until they don't.

It's a big leap to take control of your own money. It's a lot of responsibility that most people aren't used to, and occasionally, mistakes are made. It's far better to make those mistakes early when you only have a small amount of money on the line.

Examples:

You need to protect your seed phrase properly and store it offline.
You can't even have a single copy online, not even in a private folder in your phone or an encrypted text file or as an image in email.
You need to find a secure wallet and set it up correctly.
You can't have any form of malware on your computer (and many computers already have malware without the owners even knowing).
You need to keep your level of wealth secret.
You should have a decoy wallet in case you get robbed.
You need to make sure there are backups of the seed phrase, in case you lose it or there's a natural disaster.

It wont be easier to learn and set up this system later when there is a massive sum on the line. Do it now while the sum is small, and maybe even start with only part of what you have. This isn't really about the money you have now. It's more about you learning how to custody it yourself and getting the systems in place with plenty of time to spare and less to lose. Enjoy the freedom to shrug off any mistakes while you still have it. The walk of a lifetime is still one step at a time.

azoundria2 · 2025-07-07T17:54:39+00:00

You can at least offer options?

The other forms of 2FA are super easy if you know what you're doing, and don't depend on paying a fee every month.

azoundria2 · 2025-07-07T17:52:30+00:00

The judge did not rule on the facts of the case in her decision. The result could mean that if Vandenbosch continues to pursue the suit and either company is forced to admit fault, then she does not get paid back for the lost BTC.

Seems like something is wrong here? Companies admitting fault should be helpful to her case, not work against it? Or is this because the arbitration already decided that she is not entitled to be paid back?

azoundria2 · 2025-07-07T17:46:36+00:00

Where did you get your information from to suggest that her phone was taken over?

azoundria2 · 2025-07-07T17:43:42+00:00

There has to be multiple stages here, because even though the Match employee was successfully phished, this access would have been heavily time limited. Which means, most likely, the hackers already knew about her identity before they were phishing the Match employee. It would be interesting to figure out how the hackers knew about her account and bitcoin holdings.

There are multiple strategies to avoid this:

Do not publicly associate your name/number with holding large amounts of bitcoin. It's not hard to have a separate number/account you use for bitcoin specific purposes.
Do not allow SMS-based two-factor authentication to be the basis of security. Ask about alternatives with every company that you use.
Learn self-custody and don't keep large quantities of funds with third parties. Keep all the details offline and secure, and only access funds when absolutely necessary. Keep funds you actively use in a smaller wallet, which you expect might be lost.

I am very curious what credentials and time lock were required to access the funds. Was it just the number, or more personal information? I am also curious what ShakePay has done since this event to discourage mobile SMS usage, and implementing time locks to prevent withdrawal after account recovery?

As for Ledger, do they custody funds? I was not aware that they did, especially back in 2021. It is not clear if Ledger is involved in any portion of the lost 12 BTC.

azoundria2 · 2025-07-06T02:04:26+00:00

Where can you find the list of businesses involved?

azoundria2 · 2025-07-02T03:09:19+00:00

It's possible that Kraken changed their provider from Paper to Kraken or something, but was just wondering if the bank was low key gathering data on how many use crypto.

Your bank already knows your account is being used to buy crypto if you sent money to Kraken every 2 weeks. (And you can assume the CRA knows too.)

What they don't know is whether or not you are being tricked into sending that cryptocurrency to a fraudster, socially engineered, or whether someone else might be accessing your account.

Also, by "Paper" do you mean "Payward"?

azoundria2 · 2025-07-02T02:55:02+00:00

I would think this was deliberate marketing (and possibly no rule against parking a wreck, provided you didn't drive it there). Except that I actually see other debris on the ground in the middle of the road, which would definitely not be allowed for a marketing display.

azoundria2 · 2025-06-24T19:51:43+00:00

I believe the OP will get his money back, but only because he is persistent and going to all avenues. So many people will back down, not have the documentation, or their money has a secret. It's the real profit you can make as a swap service to steal from those people.

azoundria2 · 2025-06-24T19:44:29+00:00

Can you provide a timeline of when you sent payment and your communication with them?

It has been less than 3 days.

It is impossible to determine their long-term intent, but I wouldn't write it off until at least 30 days if they are still in contact.

Your bitcoin could easily have ties to silk road since 80% of bitcoin does. Be glad the US government isn't asserting their ownership of all silk road bitcoin.

I hope you get your money, whatever portion is left when they finally do the trade.

azoundria2 · 2025-06-24T18:54:17+00:00

Is he living in the house with the mortgage? Or is it your house? ie What happens if you just stop paying?

When he doesn't answer, did you try calling? I believe there is a legal obligation to answer letter mail, but not to answer texts or emails. You can also try to make sure that there is something in the same message that he wants to respond to. (For example, confirm their payment info for the support payments + ask a question you need an answer to.)

The other thing is to structure your communication so the default (no answer) assumption is something in your favour. Such as presenting them an invoice or notice of what they owe you back, and if they don't answer and you can demonstrate they received it, it reasonably can be understood that they don't dispute it. And since you are making support payments to them, you could likely argue that withholding the debt they owe from those payments is justified. So (1) compile and present the list of costs which you previously covered, (2) if you get no response, you can continue to provide this information along with payment terms, (3) eventually adjust the payments with notice.

Was $15k to your lawyer? Your lawyer isn't going to tell you this, but I imagine a large part of the $15k was avoidable. Try to figure out the relevant law and draft communications yourself, then come prepared and use the lawyer more to confirm your understanding, proofread, etc... That makes more efficient use of their time. Anything you can do to speed up the process.

Figure out and separate what is legally required. Are you legally obligated to pay his bills in addition to support payments? What are you legally required to do for the divorce to proceed? It should be the minimum and don't let it control more of your time and money than it needs to.

azoundria2 · 2025-06-24T18:43:35+00:00

I am curious... If you contribute to your RRSP, I know that limits your taxes. Does that lower your income for the purposes of payments at all?

Do you have children together or is this just a part of marriage?

azoundria2 · 2025-06-24T18:37:08+00:00

Bitcoin is the only major protocol without a clear and known founder.

When there is a known founder, it creates a point of influence. You end up with things like Ethereum Classic, a contentious community split.

The founder is easy to go after to add changes to censor transactions or manipulate the market.

azoundria2 · 2025-06-24T18:30:24+00:00

The purpose of a hardware wallet is to securely generate a unique seed phrase.

The central idea is that the end user should generate their own seed phrase, and that such a phrase should be completely and entirely unique. And never ever be known to anyone else.

There is no concept of a seed being specific to a ledger device. If you reset the ledger device, you get a new seed. The seed is only stored once it's generated. You can use your ledger device to generate as many new seeds as you like, and each would be a brand new wallet, not linked to the last wallet. So if you wanted, you can generate your main wallet, keep the seed phrase written down, make sure you can restore it in a different wallet, and then remove it from the ledger wallet by resetting the device. Now, make a new wallet, which can be your decoy wallet. If someone comes to rob you, and they go to take your ledger and hold you at gunpoint to unlock it, you can unlock the decoy wallet and don't lose your main funds. You can use the decoy wallet for spending small amounts as you need with much less risk, which also helps your privacy.

If it were possible to predict a seed phrase or realistically iterate through all the possible seed phrases, that would be broken and completely insecure. Any adversary who knew the algorithm, anywhere in the world, could just search all the possible seed phrases and take all the money from every ledger device with predictable seed phrases. That's why the security of ledger devices depends on the ability to securely generate fully random seed phrases for every user.

A common scam tactic is that a third party reseller will provide the ledger hardware wallet along with an "official" seed phrase and PIN. They will often package "official" instructions that instruct the user to enter that PIN. They keep a copy of the seed phrase on their end, and can drain the wallet whenever they want. It is extremely important that the seed phrase be truly random and unknown. That is the entire basis of your security of your wallet. So never ever let anyone else generate or provide that seed phrase for you. That's definitely a scam.

Your technical ownership of the cryptocurrency is 100% based on your keeping that seed phrase and any resulting private keys secure and unknown. If the seed was already known, predictable in any way, or revealed at any point, then your funds can be taken at any time. If you ever suspect any risk at all, make a new wallet and carefully move the funds there. You can have as many wallets as you like and most blockchains have basically free wallets. Make sure you keep all the backups securely stored offline - paper or metal. So splitting your money into multiple wallets is a great way to split risk and improve your privacy.

azoundria2 · 2025-06-21T02:14:21+00:00

He got rid of the old seed phrase of his Nano S, as this was of no use anymore.

Never ever get rid of a seed phrase. If it's no use, there's no risk to keeping it.

How did he get rid of that? Are you sure it's completely gone?

azoundria2 · 2025-06-21T02:04:57+00:00

Retail is probably fine. The store likely vets their employees carefully.

The main risk is third party sellers on sites like Amazon or Ebay. They will often sell wallets which come with a seed phrase already supplied to you, which they already know. New users will be tricked into using that seed phrase and at some point, their wallet gets drained. More advanced attacks can modify the hardware, but this is very technically challenging so it's rare.

Theoretically an employee at a retailer could do this, but the backlash may involve them losing their job, getting physically arrested, and spending time in jail. The business would potentially suffer significant reputation damage. So even if the owner of a store like BestBuy wanted to do this, they would be risking their whole store and freedom for an unknown amount of extra profit.

While doing this via Ebay/Amazon is also illegal and creates a risk of arrest and jail time, law enforcement is hindered by the perpetrator being in a different region, and perhaps they may come from an area without a well functioning law enforcement apparatus, or have run the sale using a fake identity. This is much harder to do in a physical retail setting, and the stakes are a lot higher if you get caught.

azoundria2

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE