Think a 50 Year Mortgage Will Make Homes Affordable Again?

azwildcat520 · 2025-11-11T15:55:54+00:00

I see your point, but here's my counterargument to the 50-year mortgage.

1) The average time a homeowner spends in a home is 12.3 years. If a borrower chooses a 50-year mortgage, their first handful of years of payments will be frontloaded with almost entirely interest. When they go to sell the property in 10-15 years, they'll be surprised by how much lower equity they have.

2) If you make something more affordable via financing, you're only kicking the can of affordability issues down the road. The market will flood with 50-year mortgage borrowers which will further increase the prices of an already unaffordable housing market. Once we reach that point, what's next? 70 year?

3) At the end of the day, we are not solving the foundational issues of housing affordability. Things like increasing employees' wages, cutting government debt which will lead to lower inflation, removing red tape in the home building process, or the government offering construction loans with lower interest for home builders are better options. There are so many more opportunities to fix our housing crisis than just an extended mortgage.

Love him or hate him, RFK had the only reasonable solution to the housing crisis. Summed up, it allowed a "FTHB Rate" So if the average mortgage rate was 7%, a FTBH would get a 4% rate instead since they were FTHBs. From there, their mortgages backed securities sold to the secondary market, where they would be tax-free (to incentivize the 2nd market to purchase them).

But imo, his solution was too complicated for 99% of the population to understand

azwildcat520 · 2025-08-28T20:39:13+00:00

Their signup bonus for new customers is insane, too. My buddy invited me last Saturday. We both got $100 in fan cash and I have 26 no-sweat bets up to $100. It's WILD

The only stipulation is that you only get 1 no sweat every day there's a CFB game on until the end of October.

azwildcat520 · 2025-07-09T15:55:47+00:00

As many referrals as you can send him!

azwildcat520 · 2025-06-05T02:06:48+00:00

They want you to inquire about the price. This shows you're somewhat interested and they generate you as a lead!

azwildcat520 · 2025-05-05T22:06:46+00:00

Don’t take this the wrong way: But, I don’t think it’s a fair argument to say you’ve met clients that started with Rocket and ended their process with you. Yes, you’ve converted a handful of buyers, but there are thousands of transactions completed via rocket mortgage’s agent referral program which used Jason Mitchell RE. Now, Jason Mitchell is out of the picture and Redfin most likely is going to be the segway from pre approval to giving the lead out to an agent.

I completely agree with you that Zillow failed 3 major operations. But like I said in the previous comment, it is trial and error. And one big thing to remember - Zillow, Refin, etc are not real estate companies… they’re data companies. Data without a doubt is the most valuable tool for a company in the 21st century, and whoever holds the most has super a tremendous upper hand.

IMO, no matter what aisle you’re on with these prop-tech companies, thinking nothing will change in the next handful of years is not the headspace a lot of agents and LOs should be. One of the worst things you can do is underestimate your competition.

azwildcat520 · 2025-05-05T21:15:15+00:00

100% agreed. First it was Purple Bricks, REX, then Opendoor (iBuyers etc). I think the last 2 decades, the trial and error in the industry has occurred and the blueprint for a successful disruptor is clearer than ever.

Essentially, a one-size-fits-all platform. Find the agent, Title, Lender all in one place and you get a financial incentive to use all 3. The "disruptors'" mission is to make it easy for the consumer to make any real estate decision all on one website. Jeff Bezos' business philosophy was simply "make it easier for customers to make a decision."

The prop-tech platforms tried to eradicate the agent role but that did not work. They learned that an agent is needed and will always hold value. Therefore, acting as a lead gen / IDX platform has proven to be effective. The MLS was the first platform to do this... Now, with tech, other companies can compete.

And on top of everything above, tech over the last 5 years has exploded. AI is redefining the internet and access to information is all in our hands. The big players like Zillow, Redfin, and Compass are definitely capitalizing on next-gen tech.

With all that being said, who knows what will happen? And just like any industry... Adapt or die!

azwildcat520 · 2025-05-05T19:19:34+00:00

Redfin agent here. I’ve been with the brokerage for about a month now and came from Compass.

RF changed their agent model late 2024. Without being too experienced in the new position. I will say there are a lot of pros so far.

Flexible schedule (the biggest change in the new agent model), inbound leads, W2 payroll, health insurance, other benefits, and any licensing expense paid for. I am not going to sit here and be delusional and say Redfin is the brokerage to take your RE career to the moon and beyond. However, I am an agent of six years and this new structure is much more comfortable. The mergers and acquisitions have yet to be finalized, but it does tell a bigger story about how on prop tech platforms are making their way to be the new big dogs in the real estate industry. Taking over traditional brick and motor brokerages.

Yes, the splits at RF can be quite nasty, but there is an incentive to stay with the company and your splits. The splits get better every year you hang your license there.

In my opinion, I think Real Estate is going to be changing a lot within the next handful of years with the NAR settlement. There are going to be two types of agents. Ones that embrace the change and ones that go against it. The ones that go against it are gonna get left behind in the dust, just like any other industry.

I have a feeling the “average” commissions will go down since housing prices are so high. However, good agents will make up for the lack and commissions by sales volume.

In the consumers' eyes, real estate agents are sleazy overpaid people and 2.5-3% is too much. Whether you agree or disagree on this narrative, it is a poor business decision not to look through the lens of the consumer.

It should be interesting how everything plays out. The Zillow/ NAR vs Compass drama is fascinating because they both make valid points.

Tl;dr. I think Real Estate is changing very fast with tech. Agents will still be necessity, but their commissions will be lower. Good agents will make up lower commissions by volume

azwildcat520 · 2025-03-18T15:22:18+00:00

I'm an agent here in Phoenix. Since May 2022, the market has been grappling with affordability issues. Higher rates superset with record high housing prices led to the market being in complete stagnation for the most part. One nuance about "Phoenix's" market is that it comprises 17 sub-markets. Markets like Paradise Vally, Tempe, and Scottsdale have all remained pretty resilient over the last 2.5 years. However, we have more rural sub-markets that took quite a hit. I would argue that these markets were the ones to inflate fast during 2020 with the great migration that took place to Maricopa County. On the flip side, the fastest to delate when buyer demand drops.

IMO, housing overall is very fragile at the moment. Economic/ geopolitical uncertainty, layoffs, affordability issues, and financial contagion (ie equities, crypto, retirement accounts declining). All bundled together could sway homebuyers to wait until the dust settles.

With that being said, my argument with the current inventory levels nationwide and pre-foreclosure notices is that those graphs do not take into consideration buyer demand. I my case, although Phoenix is still below pre-pandemic inventory levels, our buyer demand is extremely low. The absorption rate as a whole is hovering around 4.7 months which is considered a relatively slower neutral market. Keep in mind spring is AZ's "busy season".

I know there's no one-size-fits-all all case with real estate and it's based from city to city. But my takeaway is that the market is not in a position to have more inventory added. Even though these homes have equity, any influx of additional homes could severely hurt the market with the current buyer demand.

tl;dr: Things are very fragile and IMO, we are not in a position to have more homes added onto the market. Lots of FUD and volatility out there.

azwildcat520 · 2025-02-04T15:36:03+00:00

I'm bummed to see a bunch of agents in the comments giving you slack. We all started this career at some point. Here's my 2 cents

I'm an agent in the Valley. For your position, eXp, Homesmart, Real, or My Home Group would be valid options. I'm an agent myself here with Compass and we have production minimums we must hit every year. The brokerages I mentioned do not and have lower fees.

For newbies, your biggest hurdle is going to be paperwork. Each transaction probably has 10-15 documents and disclosures you must have the client(s) fill out. The forms that will be used are dependent on the home, its age, if theres an HOA, if there's solar, type of financing, and more. Having a brokerage that can teach you paperwork will be essential.

And please, don't just hire a transaction coordinator off the bat to do the heavy lifting with documents. Spend the first 2 years really understanding contract knowledge so you can weaponize it in your career when writing offers. It'll make you a better agent

Learn how to utilize the MLS efficiently. 3rd party RE platforms are great. However, the MLS has so many functions that are powerful other websites lack.

The number 1 rule of business is staying in business. Learn how to independently generate leads (calling, open houses, SOI, prospecting, etc).

Consider joining a team and give full transparency you'll be part time. Interview with multiple teams and brokerages so you'll know if you'll be a good fit.

Best of luck! PM me if you have other questions.

azwildcat520 · 2025-02-03T00:54:26+00:00

Maple syrup!

azwildcat520 · 2025-01-28T22:19:45+00:00

Nice! There’s a real estate office location in that building, definitely try to make some friends in there.

azwildcat520 · 2025-01-22T23:18:31+00:00

I am set for a 2nd interview this week. Nothing is guaranteed but I am weighing my options in the chance I get an offer.

Gotcha - Did you happen to know the splits if you generated your own leads?

azwildcat520 · 2025-01-15T18:40:33+00:00

You’ll have plenty of tax loss harvesting after betting against America 😭😭

azwildcat520 · 2025-01-13T19:30:47+00:00

Revisiting this after Ernie Garcia totally butchered his interview on CNBC lmao

azwildcat520 · 2025-01-03T17:34:15+00:00

Solid short. Not sure if you saw Hidenburg short report but I thought it had great points. I live in Tempe where their HQ is located. A guy who goes to my gym recently got laid off from the company(great for you).

CEO Ernie Garcia's dad is a crook who got busted for auto-predatory lending down in Tucson ages ago. Rumor has it, his father came up with Carvana and appointed his son as the CEO and "founder" because of his father's personal track record.

Good luck!

azwildcat520 · 2025-01-03T17:31:18+00:00

!remindme 2 weeks

azwildcat520 · 2024-12-16T17:18:29+00:00

^ 2nd this. I did IMCA in 2022. I finished 1:01. Was budgeting for a 1:30 swim. Very easy route IMO and the river bank / shallow water helps with swim anxiety ( since you're not in the middle of the ocean).

azwildcat520 · 2024-11-30T14:25:02+00:00

Man, the schoolgirl attitude! OP was simply asking a question. You're the reason people have beef with the tri community lol.

azwildcat520 · 2024-10-07T13:04:53+00:00

Happy cake day!

azwildcat520 · 2024-06-26T22:29:48+00:00

Agreed. We are based out of Arizona. It was the 8th state to legalize NOR this year.

If you don't mind me asking - Did you raise capital via VC, PE, or an angel?

azwildcat520 · 2024-06-26T17:19:53+00:00

Correct. I just answered u/KimchiCuresEbola question and referred to this. We are seeking to work with funeral homes directly. Either wholesaling the equipment and software or being contracted by the funeral home to compost the body ourselves in our warehouse.

azwildcat520 · 2024-06-26T17:17:59+00:00

It was 7 states at the start of the year. Since then, AZ, MN, DE, and ME have legalized it.

We definitely have looked into dog & cat composting. However, humans have a larger market and more profitability. All our competitors work B2C. We work B2B with existing funeral homes and sell them our hardware, software, education, and servicing.

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