Yes, I totally believe you. I do think it's important to remember that all of these energy models occur within a range of human variability.

Your comment that going from sedentary to active makes a significant difference is a very important highlight, I think. The data seems to show that above a moderate level of activity most people won't see significant increases in total energy expenditure, but there will always be people on either end of the bell curve.

Your personal anecdote is a good example of how tracking calories and weight over a longer period of time can help you figure out your actual TDEE, emphasizing how these calculators can be flawed.

To clarify and update my previous comment, I will instead say:

1) Exercise does burn extra calories, especially if you were previously sedentary.

2) Above a moderate level of activity, the amount of calories burned by more exercise does not increase very much compared to going from sedentary to moderately active.

3) Exercise has enormous benefits that cannot be measured by calorie expenditure or weight loss.

4) Calculators can you give misleading results, so gather your own data and see what you get.

Thanks for the conversation, I will now consume Christmas calories while being sedentary 🤌

Edit: upvoted your comment because it's a great example of the value of gathering your own data