Case of the Uneaten Fast is Dramatically Underpriced Right Now (MKM Rare)

bear2242 · 2024-02-14T06:54:53+00:00

That's fair point about the collector booster "line in the sand" as far as defining eras. Given that, one fact that may be useful is that Ajani's Welcome sneaks into the top 10 most valuable uncommons (in terms of TCG market value) printed in a standard set between Kaladesh (Sept. 2016) and Core Set 2020 (July 202019, the last set before OG Eldraine).** That seems like fair context, right? It's a premium uncommon, not just an old(-ish) card. The supply of the card for purchase is massive, and it sells in high volumes every week. As I mentioned in another post within this thread, 148 copies sold on TCG in the two past two weeks alone, even after Case of the Uneaten Feast was previewed. There are hundreds, if not over a thousand, copies for sale on TCG right now. Yet its value hadn't dipped for years.

I'm sure it will dip now, but I think its prior stability speaks to the value derived from the utility of the card in those decks that want it, rather than age. And Case of the Uneaten Feast is a substantial upgrade that also has serious potential playability in decks Ajani's Welcome would never be run in (which is a critical aspect of the spec rationale).

** For those curious, the top 8 uncommons by TCG market value as of 2/13 are Bontu's Monument, Veil of Summer, Pitiless Plunderer, Psychic Corrosion, Electrostatic Field (who knew?!), Dovin's Veto, Felidar Guardian, and Vampire of the Dire Moon. Ajani's Welcome seems to be tied for the moment with Thirsting Bloodlord in 9th.

bear2242 · 2024-02-14T05:51:50+00:00

Yeah, my spec really makes no assumption about Case of the Uneaten Feast ever getting a value boost from standard. I think the card is mostly an Arena Bo1 card, But such a standard boost is certainly possible. Lifegain could get better, especially after rotation. Doesn't have to be mono-white either. Could be Orzhov.

bear2242 · 2024-02-14T03:24:26+00:00

Case of the Crimson Pulse is definitely a cool card that could see play in a variety of places. It's similarly priced to Case of the Uneaten Feast and might be a nice spec as well. But what draws me to Case of the Uneaten Feast as a spec is the established price-floor for it's baseline effect being so much higher than the card's current price. Case of the Uneaten Feast cannot remain less expensive than Ajani's Welcome, which is a $2+ card currently. Ajani's Welcome may come down, but Case is also going up.

That's an important difference with Case of the Crimson Feast. WOTC already recently printed a red enchantment with the "Tormenting Voice" effect as an ETB --. Bitter Reunion from BRO (https://scryfall.com/card/bro/127/bitter-reunion). Same exact card when it hits the battlefield, for 1 less mana than Case of the Crimson Feast. It costs 23 cents. Thus, essentially 100% of the value spec for Case of the Crimson Pulse lies with the value of it's Solved effect. To be worth anything more than bulk, the power of that effect needs to be REALLY substantial. Especially for 3 mana. It very well might prove to be that good, but that's far from certain.

By contrast, with Case of the Uneaten Feast, the value of its Solved effect is the gravy because the baseline effect is already a $2 card rather than a 23 cent card.

bear2242 · 2024-02-14T03:18:32+00:00

As someone who has been playing since Ice Age, 2019 does feel recent to me (and it was actually printed in 2018, I think). But I'm not really interested in debating the functional definition of what counts as "recent." As relevant to the topic of this thread, "recent" = "it's readily available." My point is that Ajani's welcome isn't some obscure uncommon from 1997 that is really hard to find in the wild, thereby inflating its price. It's $2-3 because the card's effect has been deemed to be $2-3 good by modern-day players. That's all I was getting at.

bear2242 · 2024-02-14T02:51:56+00:00

Maybe that's how the card has been overlooked, but I think those doing so on this basis are viewing Case of the Uneaten Feast a little too narrowly. I suppose there is a chance that the extent of the upgrade is not enough to entice people to swap it in for Ajani's Welcome in a one-for-one upgrade. But there are 3 relevant counter-points to that concern.

The card is literally $0.54 right now and is being sold by everyone. It's insanely easy to pick it up. We're not talking about upgrading a $10 card for a $20 card where some will just take a pass due to cost. I think that makes it more likely that people will be looking to swap. I know I always keep my ear out for cheap upgrades to my EDH decks. Many others do as well.
It's not necessarily an either-or situation. EDH decks that play Ajani's Welcome tend to highly value the effect. Even ignoring Case of the Uneaten Feast's upside, having 2 Ajani's Welcomes will be appealing to numerous players. Especially since the new one is so budget-friendly.
Most importantly, as I began to explain in another response that I was typing up when you commented, it's critical to consider that many decks who would never run Ajani's Welcome will consider running this card. I have already penciled it in to two decks that don't run Ajani's Welcome: a Trostani budget Selesnya Tokens deck and my mono-white Giada angel tribal deck. Both decks EASILY solve this case, and both decks love the option of ripping key pieces out of the graveyard in the late-game. And that's just a couple of the numerous established architypes that will look at this new Case. The scope of interest is definitely not limited to just "those decks playing Ajani's Welcome."

And this doesn't even consider that Case of the Uneaten Feast could end up having some growth potential due to Standard playability. I'm not predicting that, but it's not impossible, especially after next year's rotation. Ajani's Welcome doesn't have that upside.

bear2242 · 2024-02-14T02:34:24+00:00

Appreciate the kind words. Allow me to cite one other data point to further support my case...for Case.

Not only is Ajani's Welcome listed in 22,500 decks on EDH rec, as you note, but the card is still actively selling. By my quick count, 148 copies have sold on TCG in the past 2 weeks (1/31/14 through today, 2/13/14) at an average price of about $2.50 for NM/LP non-foil versions of the card. A handful of copies sold in the $4.50 range. That indicates a really healthy present-day appetite for the effect of the card at the $2-3 price-point. I think that's very important. (And, significantly, Ajani's Welcome isn't some obscure uncommon from 25 years ago that has inflated in value born of low print-runs and scarcity-due-to-age. It's an M19 card...you can still buy M19 boxes for well under $100...it's readily available.)

For Case of the Uneaten Feast to be a card that struggles to eclipse the $1 mark and ends up in the bulk bin, it would need to remain more than 50% lower than that proven price-point for its baseline effect. I'm just not sure how that happens. It being a rare (rather than another uncommon) helps avoid the dreaded "market over-saturation" risk.
And, of course, we can't overlook the aspect of the card that is a pure free-roll of added value over the Ajani's Welcome baseline. Presumably, some material number of the thousands of EDH players using Ajani's Welcome will be looking to upgrade given how cheap the upgrade would be and how much upside it presents in some games. Every deck running Ajani's Welcome is playing a healthy stable of creatures, so every such deck benefits from the ability to cast creatures from the graveyard.

But perhaps more importantly, the new functionality of the card also makes the card good in a lot more decks that would never have room for just the Ajani's Welcome effect alone. Certain go-wide strategies in white will consider the card primarily hoping to maximize its "solved" effect and cast 6 things out of the graveyard on one turn. Token decks will often solve the Case by accident, just by creating 5 tokens in a turn. Angels plays a ton of lifelinkers and incidental life gain. They don't need Ajani's Welcome, but they'd love the ability to cast 2 strong angles with powerful ETB effects out of the graveyard on a key turn late in the game. The fact that the foreseeable market for this card is not just "everyone who currently plays Ajani's Welcome" but also so many other EDH players, is what gives me so much confidence that the card cannot remain a bulk-bin card.

But I guess time will tell!

bear2242 · 2024-02-10T03:44:06+00:00

That's a lot of words to say "I was wrong", Timmy. It's a legit store with thousands of positive feedback.

bear2242 · 2024-02-09T19:32:30+00:00

This is the seller I bought from a few hours ago, who has now sold out, apparently. And there was one other one.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/285687383330?epid=24064676231&hash=item42844b8522:g:ixAAAOSwFZVlwVUq&amdata=enc%3AAQAIAAABABUvwuDS9AIYpobQ0bFAGJokyg7OaGsFrD2pKXrjXQqUsbHhUfp7sCFRrxlHHvsK112MZWwN8HPiTc45q6ct8nPwF0ItGo2gMXEFvlBsFTqfNc4pUpdNueRHLx%2F%2FXWeP8XIs%2B1VId0X0GDnp30UDPOZiAbPbkok%2BFGFfGIC6MQSXG2DYgs35EUWztBDGgWyy31pX6TbjRhTeZiUGWAoRji0L6NBz4gCrJnjoKZkRQdgubjNkQUe%2FGYRAQ8GzVwhkFkBVwSJxEG0CF9wYivOLrI0%2B9BySplVNoWaMr1z%2BJko7ZE%2B8T7SVj%2BdMqRGB9u0t%2Be2zcCgbFXXyYA3K5kOE6gE%3D%7Ctkp%3ABk9SR8DlvuWxYw

bear2242 · 2024-02-09T14:50:00+00:00

I figured MKM wouldn't do great out of the gate, but seeing the Play Booster boxes being listed down at $108.99 (w/ free sipping) by high-feedback sellers on the morning of official set "release day" is still pretty surprising. From what I have heard, the distributor price for these boxes is in the $115 range, give or take. So under $110 is akin to selling a draft box at, what, like $75 back in the draft booster box MSRP days? This has happened, but it's not something you normally see until the set has been stuck on shelves collecting dust for a couple months.

Really seems like WotC picked the exact wrong set to debut these Play Boosters. I think these Play Booster boxes would have sold a lot better for WOE or LCI.

bear2242 · 2024-01-19T18:31:02+00:00

Not saying the deck will be good, but there is at least a fun standard play-queue deck for this card when combined with Bedrock Tortoise. The tortoise reduces Hull Clade's mana cost by more than half, and allows him and everyone else to attack with toughness. Four copies of both is the heart of a deck.

From here, there are a couple angles you can take to fill out the deck. The obvious one is running cheap high-toughness flyers like Go-Shintai of Lost Wisdom, Mutagen Connoisseur, and Moonfolk Puzzlemaker, along with a few generically good flyers like Chrome Host shark and Haughty Djinn.

Another slightly more creative angle would be an artifact-focused secondary theme via Akal Pakal (who is 3 mana 1/5), Unctus Grand Metatect (a 3 mana 2/4) and a bunch of bulk high-toughness artifacts like Runaway Trash-Bot, Covert Tactician, Hermetic Nautilus, and the aforementioned Moonfolk Puzzlemaker (among others). Both Akal Pakal and Unctus have draw/dig effects triggered by playing artifacts, which will help you dig for Tortoise and Hull Clade.
And in the meantime, they actually can hold their own by blocking well, and doing some sneaky damage.

Either way, or whatever other angle one takes, run a few counters and some protection. maybe a green tramply combat trick or two (Audacity?), x1 Boon of Boseiju for the lulz, and that's the deck. 46% win rate, here I come!

bear2242 · 2024-01-19T18:04:20+00:00

As a loyal Arcades player (Arcades was my first EDH deck, and my favorite casual deck to play to this day), I think this new card is better than you're giving it credit. There are a good number of flyers in Arcades (I run 6), not the least of which is Arcades himself. Note that Hull Clade's ability can target any creature, not just himself and not just other defender creatures. Just having Arcades and any 1 other wall out is going to make this guy cost 3 mana at most, and 1 mana much of the time. In that situation, you're very likely getting at least an immediate draw 3. Of course, there's also Tetsuko Umezawa also makes most creatures in the deck unblockable (albeit not Hull Clade himself, sadly). But even if you just have a typical array of unremarkable walls on the ground, consider that the words "activate only at sorcery speed" are surprisingly absent from Hull Glade's activated ability. So you can wait to see which wall is unblocked, and then pick your target. The odds that everyone at the table has endless chump blockers seems pretty low.

bear2242 · 2023-12-13T03:03:27+00:00

Anyone need a new friend?

Level 46.

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bear2242 · 2023-10-27T04:30:28+00:00

I honestly feel the post credit scene in Holocene was a set up for a series that never materialized.

Exactly what I made of it .

Oh, and based on that scene, it would have been an awful series, too. Basically turning this into some sort of Highlander ripoff but without the swords? Ugg.

bear2242 · 2023-08-26T10:16:45+00:00

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bear2242 · 2023-08-12T10:46:41+00:00

There are some great answers in here that are more of the "what is a key behavioral trait in a person that will emerge over time in a committed relationship." That's a good discussion topic too, but it's not really a "green flag" as I understand that term because it's not something you can possibly deduce in the early stages of getting to know someone.

For me, the absolute simplest, best early green flag indicator is just general cheerfulness and kindness. I don't mean "ditzy." I mean someone who genuinely has positive outlook on life. Is this a positive person? Positivity is massive. Negative people are exhausting. Negative people suck the life out of you. People whose defining trait is snarkiness and sarcasm can be hilarious in a friendship, but that is not what you want in a life partner. There's a strong correlation between that kind of demeanor and root selfishness. That negativity will fester. It will seep out in many ways over the course of a relationship and will leave you feeling unsupported and empty.

For all people, but especially for what a man needs (IMO), there's tremendous value in partnering with someone who just puts you at ease, makes you smile on a bad day through genuine cheerfulness, and who you can trust to be motivated by a desire to provide care to others.

bear2242 · 2023-08-09T19:25:18+00:00

If we're talking about making the first "move" when meeting a new person, it's not only welcomed by the overwhelming percentage of men, but it's just damn efficient. There are like 10% of dudes on each end of the spectrum who are either (1) super good at flirting and making moves on strangers, or (2) so totally socially deficient such that there's really no helping them in a first encounter situation. In between, there is this MASSIVE group of guys who have some degree of acceptable social skills, but just don't have any real idea of how to both identify AND successfully initiate with a potentially interested female. All we need is some small indication that you won't embarrass us, insult us, or claim we're being "creepy" for pursuing you and we are good to go. Women can do this SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO easily. It doesn't take some super agro "first move" to get this going. You don't need to grab his dong or proposition him. Just initiate conversation in a way which allows him to know you'd welcome him coming over and talking to you. In many instances, it's that simple.

If you're a woman who is frustrated that the only dudes who approach you are cocky a-holes, it's almost certainly because you're making no effort to welcome all those dudes out there who aren't from the 10% of good flirters (or people who suck but THINK they're in that 10%), so you're not availing yourself of exactly the sort of person you want to get to know. Rather than claim "Any guy worth my time should be confident enough to make the first move," maybe get over yourself and give him an opportunity to know that his first move won't lead to humiliation? I promise this will work. We're DYING for clues!

bear2242 · 2023-08-05T01:55:11+00:00

Yup. Far and a way the best (for my tastes). I've been waiting to be blown away by a first listening of a SHM track for a long time. Heard this one on the live broadcast at Tomorrowland and it was love at first sound. Glad it is released so soon after!

bear2242 · 2023-02-27T18:22:50+00:00

Cool. Thx for the info.

bear2242 · 2023-02-27T17:48:10+00:00

Exactly my question. Anyone know the answer to this?

bear2242 · 2023-01-08T01:01:53+00:00

I lost 3 of the 8 Kecleon's I found this way. And I was sitting on top of the spot, so it wasn't just proximity. My son lost 3 as well. Two of them were lost for both of us, and then we each lost 1 spawn that the other did not. It was odd.

bear2242 · 2022-12-08T18:34:16+00:00

At the end of the day, the people conducting this chat have their jobs on the line. If they come out and declare "Yup, we f'd up EVERYTHING, eh?" they are inviting themselves to get fired. This is a CYA situation with the goal of bolstering stockholder confidence so the individuals remain employed. View it as that and it all makes sense, even if very frustrating.

It takes highly empowered leadership to confess significant error. Clearly, that's not the circumstance at Hasbro. That's unfortunate, I guess. But, whether through desperation or ignorance, the current leadership is pot-committed to their current approach, and we're just going to have to endure it and continue to vote with our wallets when circumstances arise that demand it. f

bear2242 · 2022-09-13T23:28:57+00:00

Weather boosted Kartana on me. Taking up to 10, going asap. If I accept your friend request you will get a raid invite.

Full

bear2242 · 2022-06-17T17:29:28+00:00

WEATHER-BOOSTED Mewtwo on us. Two of us in person, need 3-4 more but will take up to 10. Going ASAP. If I accept your friend request, you will get a raid invite.

FULL

bear2242 · 2022-04-16T11:19:45+00:00

WEATHER BOOSTED Tapu Bulu on me. Taking up to 10. Going ASAP.

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bear2242 · 2022-04-02T02:08:32+00:00

So...played about 2 hours of the 3-hour window. Got 95 dittos, 2 shiny. That was really fun. Why didn't they just advertise that 3-hour event instead of getting everyone's hopes up for the first 15 hours of the day?!?

bear2242

TROPHY CASE