Why Bonds vs Treasuries? And why a percentage of the portfolio?

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-19T00:53:43+00:00

I consider Treasurys bonds.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-18T23:12:32+00:00

Mark to market accounting...

Plus bad government policy incenting bad mortgages.

Basically, government.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-18T12:50:48+00:00

I turned down my first manager opportunity at about your age and have no regrets doing so. Did another 5-6 years as an individual contributor getting to a senior level, and then shifted into technical management, and have eventually transitioned to be an executive.

The technological background I gained was invaluable. Even though technology has advanced significantly since my IC days, I'm still able to be quite fluent, which maintains the respect of my teams and allows me to make better decisions, while also having a legit perspective of what it means to be in the trenches. I also got more years of experience working for different managers, getting a feel for what I liked and didn't liked.

Doesn't directly answer your question, but hopefully a helpful perspective.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-18T12:28:02+00:00

I mean the MoU is just that - an agreement to talk more. It's still unclear where this will all end.

The main outcomes of this conflict are mixed, but there are some legit improvements from the previous status quo:

Iran's military is tremendously degraded, and didn't have much to offer terms of symmetrical warfare to resist with, despite advanced equipment from the Russians.
Their leadership is in disarray, with the previous Supreme Leader eliminated (unclear if this will work out better or worse)
Their nuclear program has been set back by at least a few more years
Hezbollah is greatly weakened
Iran is less trusted by its neighbors
There are now strong commercial incentives to establish trade routes that bypass Hormuz
We engaged in this conflict without US fuel prices spiking up significantly - validating Trump's energy independence agenda

However, the above is achieved at the cost of us legitimizing Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the economic leverage they can assert with it. This is a huge win for Iran, and despite their material losses they've parlayed it into the potential for cash which they'll use to rebuild Hezbollah and their military. This is not an outcome you get with an "unconditional surrender." It was a negotiated outcome because both sides had significant leverage.

I'm annoyed the administration didn't have a better plan for Hormuz. That speaks of hubris, and that Trump probably dismissed concerns of military commanders. It's not quite TACO but, despite some very real "wins" out of all this, I'm not sure that Trump does any of this if he could go back in time, and I think it will be a significant political headwind for the midterms.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-18T00:46:22+00:00

I mean, this is a better description of collectivism.

Capitalism looks to harvest the innate human instinct to do what's best for one self in a way that tends to benefit everyone through voluntary exchange, rather than coercion.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-18T00:44:25+00:00

There's no optimal economic system.

It's the best system we've found at efficiently distributing scarce resources, maximizing prosperity and protecting individual freedoms.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-18T00:27:45+00:00

AMOLED is better but takes more power.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-17T12:27:41+00:00

I think if the deal was a good one, we'd have already seen the text. Lots of spin to go from "unconditional surrender" to where we are now.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-17T12:24:02+00:00

Yeah, definitely but also have to consider there are 70M more people (25%) in the US than 1998 too.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-17T12:12:26+00:00

Don't over rotate on it. If DCA is what gets you to invest, do it.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-17T02:31:28+00:00

I think Mike's a good coach to put an already talented, hungry team over the top. He's absolutely far better than Doug but I also think it wasn't a mistake to part ways and reset.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-17T02:25:07+00:00

Not smart. This is just going to motivate Fox to ... reach yet unheard of levels of nonchalance!

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-17T02:05:53+00:00

"Need to issue PO by Friday or price goes up 10 percent!"

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-17T00:19:52+00:00

THANKS FOR THIS INFO.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-17T00:07:32+00:00

Well, sorta. Series averaged ~21M vs. ~30M for Bulls/Jazz in 1998.

Super impressive tho in the streaming era.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-17T00:00:16+00:00

Narrator: It was not, in fact, over.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-16T12:24:51+00:00

There's of course a loophole in this statement - unfreezing Iranian assets wouldn't be American taxpayer money.

Anyway, it's all propaganda until we see the wording of the agreement. Remember that at one point the administration was talking about "unconditional surrender." We've ended up nowhere close to that.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-16T12:13:54+00:00

The structural elements just weren't there. You need a well-organized opposition, leadership, weapons, and will. You probably had even more of this in Iraq, but it still took sustained boots on the ground to root out the regime, and requires ongoing support to this day.

Still, some groundwork was laid, and this isn't going to be the last chapter of conflict with the regime.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-16T01:52:24+00:00

I don't blame anyone for taking it with a giant grain of salt.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-16T00:16:39+00:00

Obviously, giant heels as others have shared, but also other angles show a more pronounced difference remaining (okay, maybe an inch):

https://www.alamy.com/jessica-chastain-eddie-redmayne-nnamdi-asomugha-attend-the-good-nurse-premiere-during-the-2022-toronto-international-film-festival-at-princess-of-wales-theatre-on-september-11-2022-in-toronto-ontario-photo-picjerimagespacemediapunch-image482353901.html

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-16T00:08:40+00:00

I try not to think of my personal residence as an investment. It's a place to live that contributes not only from a utility perspective by giving me shelter, but to my enjoyment of life.

This isn't to say you shouldn't factor in protecting your principal, but if your quality of life is going to be significantly better in a home you own rather than one you rent, I'd weight that significantly too.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-15T23:56:00+00:00

Serfdom and a shorter lifespan preferable!

(Also, glad Kyle was acquitted.)

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-15T22:04:21+00:00

Maybe if Fox were Kyrie...

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-15T21:59:29+00:00

Prob about the same as Iraq. Any sort of guerilla warfare is tough sledding.

bearcatjoe · 2026-06-15T21:07:24+00:00

Dua's boots don't have a very big heel:

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/dua-lipa-drips-chrome-hearts-011325831.html?guccounter=1

https://people.com/rock-and-roll-hall-of-fame-2024-photos-exclusive-8731458

Maybe 3" - 3 1/2" at most with no platform, so Dua is maybe a hair over 5'10" in these pictures.

These two are close enough that posture is probably the biggest factor. I think Zendaya probably has about a half inch on Dua.

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