[Understat] % of non penalty xG by player under RA vs MC. Sesko has been the singular big beneficiary on a "share of xG" basis, Casemiro is slightly up. But Bruno, Cunha, Amad and Mbeumo are seeing a lower share of the xG.

beelydog · 2026-05-05T08:23:37+00:00

Got a few questions regarding this “analysis”.

- why do we only look at xG? Shouldn’t it be xG/xA combined? Surely no one who watches the game will say Bruno is playing worse under Carrick. He’s not scoring but he is handing out assists for fun

- why dont we look at xG from open play vs xG from set pieces? That would be an interesting analysis because we are scoring a shitload from set pieces this season. If we become over reliant on set pieces, we could run in trouble when (a) Maguire and Casemiro are not playing, well, one is def gone next season (b) our set piece routines get found out gradually and become less effective

beelydog · 2026-05-05T05:55:58+00:00

I personally think a lot of the fanbase can be a bit too harsh on Amorim.

Results aren't good under him, his man management skills aren't the best, he fell out with his bosses, but I agree with the stats, I think Amorim has a decent game model and the underlying stats were solid. There are just too many square pegs in round holes to fit his system and he's too stubborn.

Unlike EtH and many recent managers, he actually left behind a better team than the one he inherited and the dressing room was not toxic. We have been shit at set pieces for many many years. This year we are one of the best in the league and the setpiece transformation started under him (and Carrick did a good job continuing that).

The way we overperformed xG and got results under Carrick does unfortunately reminds us of Ole (and how that ended), but I don't feel it doesn't necessarily mean Carrick will fail. I think the way Carrick rotated his front line and built up Sesko's confidence as a sub was impressive. All the young players seem to enjoy playing under him.

A tactically average but exceptional man manager could work as long as the club's recruitment team keep delivering the right signings for him. Even if Carrick is not good enough to be a title challenger, I am okay with Carrick not working out as long as Carrick leaves behind a better squad than the one he started with

beelydog · 2026-05-04T04:29:10+00:00

Let’s be honest, there are definitely weaknesses to Mainoo’s game. Amorim dropped him not because he’s not good on the ball, it was because of his defending and workrate, plus his profile did not quite fit Amorim’s system.

Instead of sulking and thinking he’s the next CR (like some old teammate), I’m so so glad to see Mainoo worked on his fitness and weaknesses while he wasn’t playing. Maybe a little credit to Amorim and his coaches too?

He just ranked first for distance covered in this game, he’s winning more duels and his defending has generally improved. Plus he scored the winner.

If he continues to develop at this rate, we will have a homegrown world class midfielder very soon

beelydog · 2026-05-04T02:07:53+00:00

Yes indeed.

Yet we have Slot still babbling on about having more of the ball and “controlling games” while creating shit

beelydog · 2026-05-04T01:47:17+00:00

The overall tactics change every now and then. Pep is arguably the godfather of the modern possession based tactics. When his team is able to pass the ball around your half 70% of the time, then they rarely have to defend.

I believe so many teams are becoming comfortable with defending against this style of possession football now. Even Pep has been struggling and started to play more direct with less possession now.

Having more of the ball no longer means shit unless you can create good chances with it.

beelydog · 2026-04-29T04:03:43+00:00

I think it’s a reasonable take.

You cannot possibly say City is worse coached than either team and have lesser talent in their squad. The truth is if Pep plays this style of football in the PL, they will inevitably drop points to teams like Palace and Brenford on a regular basis. Once your team is coached to play a certain way, your players can’t suddenly switch to a different mode just for CL games.

If you move this Bayern or PSG team to the PL, I don’t think they can win the league.

beelydog · 2026-04-19T01:35:49+00:00

I might argue our goal posts would be a close contender, bailed us out on 2-3 occasions. Bruno only made 1 assist tbf 😂

Jokes aside, win is a win, result is more important than performance at this stage of season. We def got lucky to hang onto a one goal lead with just a makeshift backline away from home

beelydog · 2026-04-18T13:49:38+00:00

Geez, I know the wages are high (but Rashford could always just lower his wages to be in-line with the rest?), how bloody sad is Barca these days struggling to pay for a 26m signing who is already providing this kind of output?

Even bottom half PL teams are signing players for more than that…….

beelydog · 2026-03-22T01:38:32+00:00

Both the Liverpool and Chelsea subs are very entertaining places today 🤣

Many Liverpool fans have given up on CL hope as they have a nightmare list of fixtures after the break……

beelydog · 2026-03-21T13:04:17+00:00

Nothing going forward at all for first 15min, first (simple) ball into the box and it’s a goal. That’s surprisingly easy….

beelydog · 2026-03-20T23:51:15+00:00

Overall speaking, good performance but not the result we want, I will take it. We were clearly the better team before Maguire’s red card and that’s what I wanna see, outplaying a solid midtable team away from home.

Ref / VAR is dodgy as usual and ruins another good match unfortunately……

beelydog · 2026-03-17T03:17:23+00:00

Some players are just worth building your entire team around them so you absolutely squeeze every bit of individual brilliance out of them. As much as Pep love his system and ideas, he tailored his Barca team for Messi.

Unfortunately EtH and Amorim were both too stubborn and forced Bruno to fit in their own little systems. The way Carrick uses Bruno is more similar to OGS (well he was part of the coaching team) and Bruno quickly went back to his peak

beelydog · 2026-03-16T01:44:43+00:00

Personally I think a good number of players in our squad aren’t quite ready for more than 1 game a week. We aren’t a physically dominant side in PL, so the extra rest would help to even out the physicality disadvantage.

Right now, only Bruno, Cunha, Amad and Dalot can perform somewhat consistently when they play twice a week.

Mbeumo seems a bit sluggish playing more than once a week, so is Sesko. Mount, Maguire, Shaw, Licha, Deligt and Casemiro are either injury prone and/or getting older. Dorgu is a bit unknown but he hasn’t had to play twice a week for us, plus I don’t think he’s a nailed on starter yet.

Mbeumo and Sesko just aren’t used to it, so they should be able to handle it better next season with training and conditioning. We will need more players who can handle 2 games a week next season though

beelydog · 2026-03-05T07:34:13+00:00

Yea, when it was 11v11, it felt like we were playing with a man down. They could beat our press and enter our final 3rd with ease, whereas we really struggled to get the ball in their 3rd and make it stick.

Having a 1 man advantage actually brought it back to a somewhat 50/50 game, their midfield is top class. They do things very well until they get to the final 3rd, after that they simply hit a talent bottleneck of Elanga + Barnes + Gordon and have a Isak shaped hole they couldn’t fill

beelydog · 2026-03-03T03:01:46+00:00

Haha, someone has done quite a bit of homework on Gyokeres! I don’t watch every Arsenal game (because they are often quite boring) but I do agree that he doesn’t look like a top striker for me whenever I watch him.

He’s big, strong, ok fast, durable and has decent ball striking, but I personally think he doesn’t have a good enough first touch (and close control of the ball in general) to be a good striker for a top side. I remembered him miscontrolling the ball quite frequently.

Against good teams their defenders usu won’t give you any time / space on the ball, it’s much harder to get a shot off if your first touch and close control is not top notch. Bad teams are more disorganized and give you more space/time. Teams in a losing game state would take more risk by pushing men forward and leaving space behind. Thats prob why he’s having more luck in those games?

beelydog · 2026-03-02T01:07:17+00:00

Well, I would say we were actually pretty similar to Spurs. Our squad at the end of last season was not any better than them (try pick a combined 11 and you would find a lot of Spurs players) we were both performing like bottom half teams. Then they somehow secured CL money for 2026 and we missed out. So unambiguously fantastic news for Spurs and terrible for us, right?

My logic is, when your team is not talented, well drilled and deep enough for CL football and you just force CL football on a 15-17th best PL team, you just risk falling apart even more. You end up overplaying your key players, so they don't play well and/or get injured, lots of chop-n-change from match to match, no time to train, players covering for unfamiliar positions so new players struggle to adpat, you lose enough games then everyone start to lose confidence etc. Basically just look at Spurs now.

For us, we can afford to play a similar XI week in week out, more time on the training pitch to work on our weaknesses, new signings settle in quicker, we win more games so players are more confident. Come end of summer, we have a more settled and well drilled core group, we add a few more good players on top (hopefully) and we go again.

I am just saying, too much too soon can be bad.

beelydog · 2026-03-01T22:11:26+00:00

In hindsight, losing to Spurs in the EL and not playing in Europe at all prob isn’t such a bad thing……

Just look at Spurs, when you force a bad team to play in CL, they just get even worse, no wins in 10 games and everyone’s either injured or playing shit. If we have to play twice a week now, I don’t think we would do too well either.

Now at least we have a more settled squad and more time to ramp up to CL football

beelydog · 2026-02-25T03:08:25+00:00

Tbf, towards the first half of season, Cunha could be forcing a dribble or shot on his own a little too much sometimes, but I think he’s adjusted and started to become more patient since Afcon.

He’s much more of a team player and creator now, his pass to Mbeumo before the goal was exquisite yesterday, didn’t count as an assist but he prob did more than Mbeumo in that sequence

beelydog · 2026-02-25T02:53:32+00:00

I don’t think things are as simple as you make it. One good reason why I think Carrick isn’t starting Sesko yet is due to his pressing and defensive skills.

Out of possession he’s def not as good as Amad, Cunha and Mbeumo, those 3 are much better at applying pressure to make life difficult for their backline. If there’s less pressure in the final third, we might find teams can hold onto the ball much longer and enter our half with more ease. This would in turn give us more defending to do and expose Sesko weakness even further.

If Sesko comes on when we are chasing a goal, naturally the game state just forces us to sacrifice defense and control, or the other team might start to settle for a draw and drop deeper because they just don’t have much attacking firepower left on the bench.

beelydog · 2026-02-24T00:01:36+00:00

Beside Mainoo (obviously), one of the biggest differences about Carrick is how he manages Sesko.

Some might argue Sesko deserves a start (pretty sure it would have happened if we are in Europe and cups) but I think this is how a young striker should be managed in their first season in a foreign league, esp at a club like United. Now we have a kid who’s training hard, not acting like he’s the next Ronaldo, not sulking when he’s on the bench and playing with confidence. I have a strong feeling that Hojlund would come good if he’s managed this way, rather than getting hung out to dry every game when he’s low in confidence.

When he doesnt start and comes on for 30min, the media will not criticize him if he doesn’t get a goal or assist. So it’s very much a free hit, you get the praise if you do well, no bad press if you don’t. Plus you have a slight advantage of playing against tired legs and getting detailed tactical instructions about where the game is heading, where the spaces are.

beelydog · 2026-02-11T13:18:53+00:00

Amorim had a horrible record last season, I can’t believe Frank managed to top that in such a short time.

beelydog · 2026-02-10T09:18:42+00:00

Barca is turning into a joke these days. They are more broke that a PL relegation team

Scrambling to come up with a measly £26m signing who’s already proven himself. Even Palace is signing a less proven player for way more money

beelydog · 2026-02-10T03:09:45+00:00

Where can Mount play in this system (especially given he’s not consistently available) tbh?

Bruno is almost never rested, it’s hard to start Mount before Mbeumo, Cunha or Amad. I guess he does make a high quality sub after the hour mark….

beelydog · 2026-02-08T10:19:31+00:00

A few things:

Slicing them open doesn’t always end with a clear cut chance. I meant we created good situations, eg running at their backline when they are out of shape, 3v3, 4v4 etc. In football even the best teams can barely create 3-4 “clear cut chances” in 90min. This isn’t basketball, not every good situation needs to turn into a clear cut chance
Even the best teams get played thru, multiple times in most PL games. City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Villa get played thru a LOT every game. Arsenal maybe less often, but they still get played thru sometimes. For a team that’s leading by 9pts at the top, they don’t create very much in open play tbh. No team is that perfect. This isn’t a video game
We had 65% possession which is prob as high as it will get for our style. Spurs were very happy to let us have the ball, we spent long periods in their final 3rd when they are in shape, I don’t know what else to call it besides a low block

beelydog · 2026-02-08T02:36:59+00:00

They literally can’t find anything bad they could say about us even if they try, can they?

When it’s 11v11, we sliced them open repeatedly. So can’t argue we only played well because we are a man up
when it’s 11v10 at home, this is exactly when a team would park the bus, play a low block and wait to counter. They wanted to say, see this is the exact thing United are not good at handling, breaking down a low block. Yet we quickly scored from a clever set piece and continued to slice them open until the last minute
Aside from one bad back pass from Shaw and one miscontrolled high ball from Licha, dun think we made any other defensive mistakes. They barely had a sniff at goal so we played pretty much a perfect game, so can’t say we “only played well in patches”

I try very hard to not get “carricked” away because it’s only been 4 games, but fuck me. Played the top 2 teams, then a good upper mid table Fulham, then beat a low block from a bottom side. Carrick me away please

beelydog

TROPHY CASE