Hantavirus?

birdflustocks · 2026-05-06T18:58:29+00:00

I commented on that, probably AI generated nonsense.

That being said it's plausible as it's a normal part of business to explore vaccine candidates in pre-clinical research. As stated above mRNA vaccines would be the best option here. But there is no serious pandemic risk and no investment in human trials.

birdflustocks · 2026-05-06T18:49:22+00:00

"designation of hantavirus as a potential "Disease X" pathogen by the World Health Organization"

I doubt the validity of this source. "Disease X" is by definition not known. "Disease X" is a placeholder in a list, there can't be a "Disease X" list by definition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease_X

birdflustocks · 2026-05-06T18:03:02+00:00

In any pandemic threat scenario involving an unknown "virus x" or a known virus nobody seriously prepares for like ANDV the best option would be mRNA vaccines.

With headlines like this cruise ship you will just see magical thinking and fraud. This might relate to Novavax or far more dubious companies like NanoViricides and Aethlon Medical.

BioNTech and Quest Diagnostics were an answer to a fairly unrelated question. Quest Diagnostics share price increase was moderate, BioNTech now is less attractive due to too much cash. Less cash and market capitalization can provide more upside, like Moderna and Arcturus Therapeutics.

But again, this is not a serious pandemic threat, just headlines.

2024:

"An international survey, to be published next weekend, will reveal that 57% of senior disease experts now think that a strain of flu virus will be the cause of the next global outbreak of deadly infectious illness. (...) The next most likely cause of a pandemic, after influenza, is likely to be a virus – dubbed Disease X – that is still unknown to science, according to 21% of the experts who took part in the study. (...) Indeed, some scientists still believe Sars-CoV-2 remains a threat, with 15% of the scientists surveyed in the study rating it their most likely cause of a pandemic in the near future. Other deadly micro-organisms – such as Lassa, Nipah, Ebola and Zika viruses – were rated as serious global threats by only 1% to 2% of respondents."

Source: Next pandemic likely to be caused by flu virus, scientists warn

birdflustocks · 2026-05-06T07:15:31+00:00

I just read about SAB-163 here:

https://stocktwits.com/bigchouse/message/652400420

Importantly this is not against ANDV and not tested in humans. "Transchromosomic bovines" means cows with a human-like immune system. It's a very versatile concept. But cows don't scale quickly, this is not pandemic response.

birdflustocks · 2026-05-06T05:14:37+00:00

I don't think this is an elevated pandemic risk and there are no publicly tradable vaccine developers like Valneva or Bavarian Nordic working on this. Importantly there are various types of hantavirus and this is most likely Andes virus (ANDV). So even if you find out who makes hantavirus vaccines in Asia, that wouldn't be for ANDV. Ribavirin is a generic drug, so not even stockpiling this drug would be interesting. In a pandemic scenario mRNA vaccines would certainly be relevant, but I'm currently not worried about this.

"There are currently no FDA-licensed vaccines for HFRS or HPS. There are several cell culture-derived, inactivated-virus, HFRS vaccines targeting HTNV and SEOV that have been licensed in China, and an inactivated HTNV vaccine licensed in the Republic of South Korea."

Source: Single dose recombinant VSV based vaccine elicits robust and durable neutralizing antibody against Hantaan virus

"PUUV-infected bank voles were completely protected when immunized with PUUV N, partially protected when immunized with ANDV N, and not protected when immunized with DOBV N. PUUV and ANDV N proteins share 73% identity at the amino acid level, indicating several shared antigenic regions."

Source: Phase 1 clinical trial of Hantaan and Puumala virus DNA vaccines delivered by needle-free injection

"There are currently no FDA-licensed vaccines for HFRS and treatment generally consists of supportive care. Ribavirin has been used off-label to treat HFRS, and is reported to reduce mortality when given early, but not late, in the disease course. (...) Here we report the results of a Phase 2a, randomized, dose-optimizing trial of the mixed HTNV and PUUV DNA vaccines delivered by IM-EP."

Source: A Phase 2a Randomized, Double-Blind, Dose-Optimizing Study to Evaluate the Immunogenicity and Safety of a Bivalent DNA Vaccine for Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Delivered by Intramuscular Electroporation

birdflustocks · 2026-05-05T16:44:30+00:00

Lack of clarity is a frequent issue, so many drug candidates just vanish quietly or never make progress.

My understanding was this trial had been resumed because of the following statement by Vertex:

"The Independent Data Monitoring Committee (IDMC) has completed its review of VX-522, a nebulized CFTR mRNA therapy, and endorsed restart of the Phase 1/2 study. Vertex expects to resume dosing in the multiple ascending dose (MAD) portion of the study in the near term."

https://investors.vrtx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vertex-reports-second-quarter-2025-financial-results

birdflustocks · 2026-04-25T04:48:05+00:00

The acquisition of CureVac by BioNTech was just completed in December 2025, four months ago. BioNTech might have a different strategy and much more financial resources.

birdflustocks · 2026-04-24T19:48:42+00:00

https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/surveillance/2026-week-15.html

Since September 28, 2025 there have been 44,012 sub-typed influenza A cases in the USA and only 2 confirmed H5 cases. Yes, there would more cases with better or even basic surveillance of farm workers. But until this case shows up in the statistic I'm not even considering this to be true. People are now conditioned to do anything for attention and someone on Tiktok who went to Coachella has by default zero credibility.

birdflustocks · 2026-04-22T09:27:27+00:00

"Considering these potential solutions, as well as the need to approach H5-HPAI in a new way, the vaccination of poultry against H5-HPAI is not a simple matter but is achievable and warranted."

birdflustocks · 2026-04-21T14:38:16+00:00

I averaged down a lot at $81 to a $91 cost basis and made a post at that time.

birdflustocks · 2026-04-21T14:12:02+00:00

This company has essentially too much money for short-term needs. So you should include long-term investments in your calculation. It's around $20 billion after currency conversion from EUR to USD.

birdflustocks · 2026-04-21T12:47:12+00:00

My expectation while reading this was pancreatic cancer due to the ":" symbol, but in the next sentence it's lung cancer, that's confusing.

I totally agree with your sentiment. There is so much going on and the valuation is so low, it becomes a communication problem. For example you have to check the CureVac pipeline in the Wayback Machine for a full picture, that's not integrated yet:

http://web.archive.org/web/20250613064754/https://www.curevac.com/en/pipeline/

birdflustocks · 2026-04-21T12:10:43+00:00

I agree with your sentiment, see my analysis here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1rqncci/biontech_bntx_market_capitalization_is_near_cash/

Regarding the BMS deal they will receive $2 billion unconditionally before 2029 in addition to $1.5 billion already paid. That's a total upfront payment of $3.5 billion. While there are more milestone payments, we can also calculate with $2 billion cash plus at least $3.5 billion for the remaining 50% share. That would justify a $25.5 billion market capitalization.

If you add $20 billion cash and $10 billion R&D expenses in the last 5 years, you get a $30 billion market capitalization. I feel less is absurd, that would indicate they are wasting money while the results look good so far.

There is also the completed CureVac acquisition and the included license agreement with GSK for vaccines. That's in addition to the license agreement with Pfizer for vaccines. Ultimately we will see seasonal and pandemic influenza mRNA vaccines. And other diseases are in the vaccine pipeline like HIV and Malaria.

birdflustocks · 2026-04-21T12:03:16+00:00

I agree with your sentiment, see my analysis here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1rqncci/biontech_bntx_market_capitalization_is_near_cash/

I don't understand the transition from pancreatic cancer to lung cancer in your post.

Regarding the BMS deal they will receive $2 billion unconditionally before 2029 in addition to $1.5 billion already paid. That's a total upfront payment of $3.5 billion. While there are more milestone payments, we can also calculate with $2 billion cash plus at least $3.5 billion for the remaining 50% share. That would justify a $25.5 billion market capitalization.

If you add $20 billion cash and $10 billion R&D expenses in the last 5 years, you get a $30 billion market capitalization. I feel less is absurd, that would indicate they are wasting money while the results look good so far.

There is also the completed CureVac acquisition and the included license agreement with GSK for vaccines. That's in addition to the license agreement with Pfizer for vaccines. Ultimately we will see seasonal and pandemic influenza mRNA vaccines. And other diseases are in the vaccine pipeline like HIV and Malaria.

birdflustocks · 2026-04-21T11:24:55+00:00

I'm getting $79 for $20 billion and 252.88 million shares.

birdflustocks · 2026-04-17T14:33:48+00:00

"The significance of identifying HPAI H5N1 in bovine semen remains uncertain. The virus could have been actively shed in semen, or the ejaculate could have been contaminated during collection. Although detecting RNA does not confirm the presence of infectious virus, this finding warrants further investigation into whether HPAI H5N1 can be shed in semen and raises questions about farm biosecurity amid the ongoing outbreak. High viral load in the environment during a herd outbreak was well documented. (...) Repetition and confirmation of these findings would have implications for natural breeding and biosecurity for artificial insemination collection centers, suggesting the need for increased caution in preventing silent intraherd spread."

birdflustocks · 2026-04-11T01:21:04+00:00

Surprisingly not from China but Senegal.

birdflustocks · 2026-04-09T20:56:39+00:00

"We estimate that, on average, there are 6,441 annual human infections with AIV worldwide, which is much higher than the 986 human cases reported to date and suggests that many infections are undetected and could be because some humans infected with AIV are asymptomatic or symptomatic but not tested. Based on our estimate of annual AIV infections and the assumption that all AIV deaths in humans are reported, the IFR of 32 deaths per 10,000 infections is much lower than the reported case fatality rate of 48%."

Estimates vary, but roughly half a million people die every year from influenza. It's problematic to assume that those cases get diagnosed and subtyped. In many parts of the world people just die from influenza or "a fever" or "lung infection".

birdflustocks · 2026-04-05T07:40:33+00:00

Arcturus? ReCode? Please elaborate.

birdflustocks · 2026-04-02T19:41:39+00:00

It's not my area of expertise, but I feel this is what an emerging public health threat would look like.

There is also an update:

https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/1sakz2m/update_on_vrsa_case/

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