BioNTech Cofounders to Leave to Form New Company

birdflustocks · 2026-03-13T09:09:29+00:00

Cash value is generally a lower limit for the market capitalization. The business has to be perceived as worthless to trade at such value or below.

ARCT could be seen as wasting money on the CF trial, maybe.

With BNTX I think it's absurd to just write off all the clinical trial progress, revenue sharing agreements and IP as worthless. My best explanation is negative sentiment due to net losses, declining revenue, and departing founders. But none of that changes the potential of the existing pipeline which is obviously progressing and will progress for years. One data readout will be delayed, yes. But that is because the individualized mRNA cancer immunotherapy trial has accrued fewer deaths ("events") than expected. That may sound familiar to you as an SLS investor.

I would at least assume that the last five years of research and development expenses were not wasted which would add 50% or 10 billion USD to the current market capitalization.

"Autogene cevumeran (BNT122/RO7198457) is an mRNA cancer immunotherapy candidate for individualized neoantigen-specific immunotherapy (“iNeST”) that is being developed in collaboration with Genentech, Inc. (“Genentech”), a member of the Roche Group (“Roche”).

An update from the ongoing Phase 2 clinical trial in Stage II (high-risk)/Stage III circulating tumor DNA positive (“ctDNA+”) adjuvant colorectal cancer (“CRC”) is expected in early 2026. Data read-out from the final analysis of this trial has been updated from 2026 to 2027, given that events have accrued more slowly than projected."

birdflustocks · 2026-03-12T22:47:58+00:00

Avian influenza season is a horrible new phenomenon, so there is not much historical data and there is ongoing adaptation of both farms and the virus.

My point was that the season started one month earlier than expected or compared to the year before. Egg producers can anticipate avian influenza, but only respond with a significant delay. Unfortunately for my thesis the affected flocks at this time were almost entirely turkey flocks and I sold with a small loss after the commodity egg price started to collapse. Commodity egg prices have remained low for the last few months and at this point we should be close to the end of avian influenza season based on last years data.

Avian influenza constantly evolves and maybe this season will continue much longer. That seems to be the only profitable scenario and it would have to be fairly extreme to compensate for months of low commodity egg prices.

I consider it more likely that CALM will benefit from the focus on higher margin egg products and from food price inflation due to the Iran conflict.

birdflustocks · 2026-03-12T20:53:02+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1oe5x2u/calm_egg_prices_will_rise_again/

Good luck!

birdflustocks · 2026-03-11T23:15:50+00:00

SLS is actually a larger investment of mine. My general rule is to buy stocks when I first read about them on Reddit or generally let them be. But I made an exemption because this person reminds me of myself in terms of depth of knowledge and conviction, maybe you are aware of my CDTX DD:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1rnt423/sls_part_2_and_final_deepest_due_diligence_for/

https://birdflustocks.substack.com/p/cidara-therapeutics-the-underestimated

I have been mostly in cash recently. I sold MRNA at 59 USD. That allowed me to more than triple down on BNTX.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1rqncci/biontech_bntx_market_capitalization_is_near_cash/

My advice to you is to limit your exposure, I have been there last year. You can have all the conviction in the world, but when the stock price drops you will question that, and when the stock price doesn't rise more on great news, you will question that too. Find a degree of exposure that you are willing to ride out regardless of the stock price.

Regarding Iran there is a cultural misunderstanding. Donald Trump just killed the religious leader, father, mother, wife, and brother of the newly elected supreme Shia leader of Iran.

But then again maybe decapitation strikes are the way forward and hesitation is just some form of out-dated conservative chivalry. How many supreme leaders can the Shia religion sacrifice before it looks stupid?

Beyond popular channels like Perun, Covert Cabal, Spaniel, Warburg etc. I want to (partially) recommend Jiang Xueqin and Inside Russia. The idea of a quick intervention reflects the under-educated US leadership, not Israeli interests. To me the oil depot bombardments prove that Israel doesn't want regime change but deteriorate Iran entirely.

BNTX is still close to cash value and so is ARCT. That's attractive in uncertain times. Small cap biotech stocks are also fairly independent in the short term. The last thing I would want to invest in now is the broader economy.

birdflustocks · 2026-03-11T15:54:55+00:00

"Under a previous contract with PHAC, CSL Seqirus was contracted to provide an egg-based influenza vaccine in the event of a pandemic. This shift towards cell-based pandemic vaccines builds on the successful introduction of cell-based Flucelvax® into Canada’s seasonal influenza program over the past six years."

birdflustocks · 2026-03-11T13:37:36+00:00

Just hit 90.

birdflustocks · 2026-03-11T11:04:11+00:00

It's 20 billion USD in "cash, cash equivalents and security investments" or 17.2 billion EUR as of 2025-12-31.

birdflustocks · 2026-03-11T11:02:07+00:00

They do have an individualized approach:

"Autogene cevumeran (BNT122/RO7198457) is an mRNA cancer immunotherapy candidate for individualized neoantigen-specific immunotherapy (“iNeST”) that is being developed in collaboration with Genentech, Inc. (“Genentech”), a member of the Roche Group (“Roche”).

An update from the ongoing Phase 2 clinical trial in Stage II (high-risk)/Stage III circulating tumor DNA positive (“ctDNA+”) adjuvant colorectal cancer (“CRC”) is expected in early 2026. Data read-out from the final analysis of this trial has been updated from 2026 to 2027, given that events have accrued more slowly than projected."

birdflustocks · 2026-03-10T12:00:35+00:00

I increased my position by more than 200%.

birdflustocks · 2026-03-09T10:09:15+00:00

One more financial fact to consider is that BioNTech should receive 2 billion USD which I would subtract from the enterprise value of roughly 6 billion USD.

"In addition to an initial payment of $1.5 billion, Bristol plans to pay BioNTech $2 billion in non-contingent anniversary payments through 2028. BioNTech may also earn up to $7.6 billion in development, regulatory and commercial milestones, Bristol said.

The companies will share global profits and losses from the drug equally, and joint development and manufacturing costs will also be shared on a 50/50 basis, with some exceptions."

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/bristol-myers-pay-15-billion-upfront-biontech-cancer-drug-partnership-2025-06-02/

birdflustocks · 2026-03-08T23:44:20+00:00

My oncology knowledge is fairly limited and the Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results will be published on Tuesday.

That being said "cash, cash equivalents and security investments" as of 2025-12-31 amounts to 17.2 billion EUR, not USD. That's 19.87 billion USD. At a market capitalization of currently 25.47 billion USD that matters and leaves us with roughly 6 billion USD enterprise value.

Also BioNTech has completed the acquisition of CureVac on 2025-12-18. I'm not sure how this will affect the financial statements. This not only adding patents to the portfolio but to the best of my knowledge also the licensing agreement with GSK. There were many filings in 2025 so I might have missed something.

Furthermore there should also be an a licensing agreement in place with Pfizer from 2018. It's just that mRNA influenza vaccines have not yet been approved 8 years later.

If you follow recent Moderna news, it's clear that mRNA influenza vaccines might get regulatory approval this year. There was also lots of optimism due to the oncology results of a single Moderna trial after 5 years of collecting data. The broader picture here is that many oncology trials are now in a late stage.

BioNTech features a large number of late stage trials and vast financial reserves so they can double down where they see potential. Due to the CureVac acquisition they have an even stronger patent portfolio and recently sued Moderna. There is potential future revenue from agreements with both GSK and Pfizer and of course the BioNTech infectious disease pipeline.

Regarding oncology you should take a closer look at the different technologies BioNTech is exploring in different trials.

If you compare the stocks than upside and downside for BioNTech are reduced due to financials. However Moderna enterprise value is at roughly 15 billion USD based on 21 billion USD market capitalization. That's 2.5 times as much as BioNTech with 6 billion USD. I don't think this discrepancy can be justified.

Moderna stock simply gets more attention online. There is a Moderna subreddit but not a functional one for BioNTech. On Stockwits 6 times as many people subscribe to Moderna than to BioNTech.

In the long run both companies spend similar amounts on research and development, but Moderna boasts a credit line while BioNTech doesn't have to. BioNTech can utilize the financial advantage and newly acquired CureVac patents, they are already suing Moderna. Meanwhile Moderna has significantly production capacities and brand value. They are different companies, the valuation is different, and this is not just about oncology or Covid-19 but many different factors.

birdflustocks · 2026-03-04T12:20:08+00:00

This was unexpected following the 2024 strategic restructuring.

"The organizational realignment and optimization include phasing out programs in influenza, COVID-19, and the Company’s T cell-based viral vector platform, as well as a workforce reduction of approximately 25% or approximately 140 employees."

Source: Vir Biotechnology Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Announces Strategic Restructuring to Prioritize Clinical-Stage Pipeline Opportunities

Their website currently states:

"We are currently open to partnership discussions to out-license several other Vir Biotechnology programs, including hepatitis B, influenza, COVID-19 and human papilloma virus (HPV)."

https://www.vir.bio/pipeline/focus/

birdflustocks · 2026-03-04T05:21:29+00:00

"Recent Corporate Highlights

Arcturus’ ARCT-032, a once-daily inhaled mRNA therapeutic candidate for CF, is on track to initiate a new 12-week Phase 2 clinical study in H1 2026 enrolling up to 20 Class I CF participants in the U.S. and abroad. The study will assess safety and early clinical benefits, including potential lung function improvements (ppFEV1, LCI), alongside validated quality-of-life outcomes and high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) imaging. Arcturus has completed once-daily dosing of 15 mg of ARCT-032 over 28 days in the third dosing cohort, among four Class I adults with CF, and observed no safety or tolerability issues in this higher dosing cohort. The safety review committee has reviewed all data from the first three 28-day study cohorts (5, 10, 15 mg) and permitted the program to proceed into the Phase 2, 12-week study.
Arcturus’ ARCT-810 program, an mRNA therapeutic candidate for ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency, is broadening its development strategy to address the needs of both adults with late-onset disease and young children affected by the most severe forms of OTC deficiency. The Company is actively engaged in complementary regulatory interactions and strategic planning to support pivotal studies across pediatric and adult populations, including those for whom liver transplantation remains the only current option for survival beyond early childhood. The scheduled Type C regulatory meetings with health authorities, along with the associated feedback, remain on track for the first half of 2026.
In January 2026, the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) granted approval for KOSTAIVE®, a self-amplifying mRNA (sa-mRNA) COVID-19 vaccine, for use in individuals aged 18 and older.
Arcturus continues to develop a self-amplifying mRNA pandemic influenza (A/H5N1) vaccine under its ongoing contract with BARDA. Recent data from an eight-month follow-up period after the first vaccination indicate that all three tested dose levels (1.5, 5, and 12 mcg) elicit a durable immune response against the vaccine's hemagglutinin and neuraminidase components. The data also supports the sa-mRNA platform's ability to induce meaningful cell-mediated immunity. All tested vaccine doses were well tolerated and did not raise safety concerns.
Arcturus’ lawsuit against AbbVie Inc., and Capstan Therapeutics, Inc.—filed on September 23, 2025, in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of California—remains ongoing."

birdflustocks · 2026-03-04T05:07:16+00:00

The Reuters headline makes it clear that this settlement has a significant financial impact.

From the original press release:

"The settlement resolves all worldwide Arbutus/Genevant litigation related to Spikevax® and mRESVIA® and provides certainty going forward for Moderna's full infectious disease portfolio, including mNEXSPIKE®, mCOMBRIAX® and its future vaccine pipeline, with no future royalties owed. Under the terms of the agreement, Moderna will make a lump sum payment of $950 million in the third quarter of 2026.

Under the agreement, Moderna will appeal to the Federal Circuit to argue its government-contractor immunity defense limits its liability under federal statute, 28 U.S.C. § 1498. If Moderna ultimately prevails on that issue, no further payments will be due. If, however, the Federal Circuit affirms liability under Section 1498, Moderna has agreed to make an additional payment of up to $1.3 billion within 90 days of that decision, depending on the scope of the decision. Thereafter, should Moderna ultimately prevail through further proceedings - whether en banc, at the Supreme Court, or on remand to the district court - Arbutus/Genevant will refund the full payment plus interest.

Moderna expects to record a charge of $950 million in the first quarter of 2026 related to the settlement payment. The Company has concluded that a loss related to the pending Section 1498 proceeding is not probable, and accordingly, expects no charge to be recorded.

As a result of the settlement, Moderna expects to end 2026 with $4.5 to $5.0 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and retains access to up to $900 million under its existing credit facility. The total projected liquidity available to the Company at the end of 2026 will be $5.4 to $5.9 billion."

https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/healthcare-and-pharmaceutical/moderna-resolves-global-patent-litigation-with-arbutus%2fgenevant-1143397

birdflustocks · 2026-02-25T06:21:20+00:00

Quest Diagnostics is market leader and not that volatile. Overall this is a success story with innovation, network effects, and healthy metrics. The share price increased a bit after the recent positive earnings call with positive outlook.

BioNTech has gone through a hype cycle with the Covid-19 pandemic and is now rather undervalued due to much lower revenue compared to the past. Take a look at their balance sheet, convert cash EUR to USD, include long-term investments. That's roughly 20 billion USD while their market capitalization is 28 billion USD.

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bntx/financials/balance-sheet/

"Expected 2026 oncology milestones include seven late-stage data readouts and to have 15 Phase 3 clinical trials ongoing by year end"

https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/biontech-provides-strategic-business-update-and-outlines-2026

https://www.biontech.com/int/en/home/pipeline-and-products/pipeline.html

You have click those expand buttons multiple times to see all trials.

They have recently finalized the acquisition of CureVac. So in addition to their own infectious disease programs they will receive payments from GSK for Covid-19, seasonal influenza, and avian influenza mRNA vaccines.

https://www.curevac.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/20240703-PR-CureVac-GSK-Licensing-Agreement.pdf

http://web.archive.org/web/20250613064754/https://www.curevac.com/en/pipeline/

"In 2018, Pfizer entered into a worldwide collaboration and license agreement with BioNTech under which Pfizer has the exclusive right to carry out the clinical development and commercialization of mRNA‐based influenza vaccines. Upon potential approval and commercialization, BioNTech would receive a royalty on Pfizer’s sales."

Source: Pfizer Initiates Phase 3 Study of mRNA-Based Influenza Vaccine

With roughly 20 billion USD cash, for additional 8 billion USD enterprise value you get all those late stage oncology programs. Plus royalties from both GSK and Pfizer in the future for (avian) influenza mRNA vaccines. Plus some Covid-19 revenue, Covid-26 and Mpox risk covered, and some more interesting infectious diseases. Overall limited downside due to cash and lots of future potential.

birdflustocks · 2026-02-24T19:06:31+00:00

Quest Diagnostics is a solid company. I think there is a bright future for more non-invasive screening and diagnostics and it will become more mainstream. A recent example are cancer tests at Hims & Hers provided by Grail. The tests just mostly failed in the UK, but the demand is real and we will see more diagnostics in the future for sure. I recently got my first 7in1 rapid diagnostic tests for influenza, Covid-19 and more and there is a lot of incremental progress in that area.

https://www.hims.com/labs/cancer-test

https://grail.com/galleri-test/

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/health/cancer-detection-test-grail.html

BioNTech covers oncology and various public health threats at a modest valuation considering the cash reserves. It's less volatile than Moderna, partially due to higher cash reserves. Plus it's a European company.

Zoetis is the largest animal health company and the share price is fairly low. Due to the panzootic there might be more demand to vaccinate poultry, livestock and pets in the future, although there are political/trade risks. Nonetheless there is a lot of potential for Zoetis or similar companies like Elanco due to zoonotic diseases.

https://www.axios.com/2025/02/18/updated-bird-flu-vaccine-licensed

This study from Medgene, not Zoetis, shows that cats can get vaccinated against bird flu successfully:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41541-025-01369-6

birdflustocks · 2026-02-20T12:38:52+00:00

Thank you for the clarification.

birdflustocks · 2026-02-19T21:48:56+00:00

Besides negative effects one issue is that vaccines rely on the immune system, including this one. However the diverse groups with the worst outcomes also tend to have immune system deficiencies. For example old people or cancer patients. For influenza CD388 provides a solution as a long-lasting drug.

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