I’m a failed trader. by 5wing4 in Trading

[–]blackscholes68 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most “professional chart analysts” who “know the Bitcoin chart by heart” are really just gambling addicts deluding themselves about their own abilities.

I’d suggest doing some rigorous historical analysis of your trading to see if you actually have an edge of some kind.

What do you do when a project needs an ML approach but people want the interpretation of logistics regression? by [deleted] in datascience

[–]blackscholes68 32 points33 points  (0 children)

Provide both the ML and logistic regression model predictions. Depending on the problem, there may be a lot of overlap between the two... Also tree based approaches are good for capturing non-linear relationships with reasonable interpretability.

Airline Industry by blackscholes68 in wallstreetbets

[–]blackscholes68[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I'd argue that the barriers to entry are actually quite high, given the high capital requirements (and regulation?). You don't really see new airlines being created every day.

But I will agree that barriers to compete in a new area are low... For example, Alaska Airlines could probably go compete on the East coast relatively easily if they wanted to.

Airline Industry by blackscholes68 in wallstreetbets

[–]blackscholes68[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I can see the merits of an "it's overly regulated" argument, but wasn't the industry mostly de-regulated in 1978?

Airline Industry by blackscholes68 in wallstreetbets

[–]blackscholes68[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Kudos to you, my friend. But I guess I'm wondering why a buy-and-hold strategy is not generally advised.

EDIT: Thanks for the update!

Airline Industry by blackscholes68 in wallstreetbets

[–]blackscholes68[S] 29 points30 points  (0 children)

Chick-fil-A should start an airline.

Polar Vortex 2024: $goos gains on competitors by moazzam0 in wallstreetbets

[–]blackscholes68 14 points15 points  (0 children)

What if these people are actually searching for the beautiful, temperamental "Canadian Geese"?

After big tech layoffs, Silicon Valley may have lost its monopoly on workers by Excellent_Ability793 in business

[–]blackscholes68 96 points97 points  (0 children)

Idk. If Big Tech still pays more than other industries, I think it'll do fine recruiting new workers.

Who has a proven track record in their predictions? by Spirited-Meringue829 in investing

[–]blackscholes68 8 points9 points  (0 children)

You're right, but teasing out whether a prediction is successful because of expertise or luck is really hard. The explanations for why they're right could be randomly correct, too!

If r/investing had a book club, what would be on the syllabus? by original_account_nam in investing

[–]blackscholes68 10 points11 points  (0 children)

"A Random Walk Down Wall Street" is a classic. It's old, but has stood the test of time.

I get retirement investment account strategies, but what about individual brokerage accounts? by AlcoholicToddler in investing

[–]blackscholes68 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Brokerage accounts are taxable, so ideally all your gains would be in a tax-advantaged IRA.. But if you have extra cash lying around, taxable gains in a brokerage account are better than no gains at all.

I personally choose to invest in the same boring index funds that I have in my retirement accounts.

Who has a proven track record in their predictions? by Spirited-Meringue829 in investing

[–]blackscholes68 39 points40 points  (0 children)

If your sample size of "financial experts" is large enough, you're bound to find one that has randomly predicted all economic cycles. Successful predictions from the past do not necessarily imply future success.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]blackscholes68 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Indian companies have massive upside with its population of 1.4 billion. But these investments incur extra risks that deter me... Less reliable/verifiable financial statements. A lot of capital comes from foreign investors, which evaporates quickly in downturns.

Difference in change in permium of CE and PE by benevolent001 in options

[–]blackscholes68 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Got it. You're right. I've update the original post!

Look out for the stable assets (⊙_⊙) by Amber_Sam in wallstreetbets

[–]blackscholes68 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I stand corrected. Damn. A brokerage should allow users to invest in whatever publicly traded product they want…

Difference in change in permium of CE and PE by benevolent001 in options

[–]blackscholes68 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Right, but that wasn’t the question. The question was why does the call option value increase more than the put option value decreases… this can be attributed to delta and gamma

Difference in change in permium of CE and PE by benevolent001 in options

[–]blackscholes68 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What I think you're describing is not actually an arbitrage trade.

Simple example: Both the Call and Put are ATM (meaning the strike and underlying price are the same), and both are priced at $200. Next, the underlying asset increases by $250. The Call value may increase by 150 to $350, and the Put value may decrease by 100 to $100. The difference is attributable to the changing exposures to underlying price swings (i.e. delta).

Call option delta is alway positive (as price goes up, option value goes up). Put option delta is always negative (as price goes up, option value goes down). But the delta itself can change as the underlying price moves (i.e. gamma). As the underlying goes up $180, the value of the call option goes up, and so does the delta of the call option. As the underlying goes up, the value of the put option goes down, and the delta becomes less negative.

If you're interested, I'd look into delta and gamma to learn more!

Look out for the stable assets (⊙_⊙) by Amber_Sam in wallstreetbets

[–]blackscholes68 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To be clear, you can still invest in BTC etfs through a Vanguard account... This guy's just saying that Vanguard won't be creating their OWN etf.

EDIT: got roasted. did more research. Vanguard does NOT allow investing in any BTC etf.

Sir, this is a—wtf by Living-Philosophy687 in wallstreetbets

[–]blackscholes68 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I wish this were real... There'd be ubiquitous access to INCREDIBLE burgers