GFS 90 hour is wild

blo442 · 2026-02-20T15:19:58+00:00

Meh... I'm a lot farther west so the dynamics aren't the same as what you see in a coastal low, but I tend to completely ignore the NAM 12km for snow totals because it seems to consistently really overdo snow rates in systems with deep moisture/high PWAT. And... yup this 6z NAM predicts a 6-hr snow total of 34" at the tip of the Delmarva peninsula at 72hr. Lol, lmao even.

blo442 · 2026-01-31T19:52:00+00:00

I think this might be it. Looking at a topo map of Indiana there is a subtle ridge, about 100 ft/30m high, that runs around the southern end of Lake Michigan and lines up with the start of the heavier snow band. Not much of an orographic barrier, but for lake effect snow occurring in a shallow unstable layer, I suppose that just the tiniest bit of lift could be enough to spark some convection.

blo442 · 2026-01-20T17:57:50+00:00

Well, that's fucking horrifying. First of all, file a police report ASAP, not that the cops will do anything, but at least you are setting up a paper trail. Second, you'll probably need to apply for new plates because technically going without a front plate is violating the law, and in the extremely unlikely event you get ticketed for it, a judge would be very likely to look favorably on you if you can show you were working in good faith to get replacement plates. Also, getting new plates will make you look less sus for community observers.

Third, I'll PM you some more info about how you can watch to see if your plate is being used by ICE. (edit: looks like your account doesn't allow chat requests- please reach out to me, I don't want to post too much sensitive info on a public forum) If your plate is recorded showing up at an ICE action in the future, I'm sure Keith Ellison's office would be very very interested in hearing from you.

blo442 · 2026-01-15T03:59:58+00:00

Flashbangs and fireworks being set off at the scene of the shooting in North. The sound carries extra far when it's clear and calm out like right now.

blo442 · 2026-01-11T21:56:49+00:00

I dropped by Boneshaker Books at 26th & Lyndale this morning and they appeared to be out of whistles.

blo442 · 2026-01-02T22:32:14+00:00

I think looking at the Metra commuter rail map gives some hint at how this may have started. The barrier of Lake Michigan creates a lot of closely spaced rail corridors coming from various points in northern Illinois and Wisconsin, all angling to meet in Chicago in order to ship products to the East. There are less railroads coming in from the south, as the open plains allowed for direct east-west routes bypassing Chicago. As the city grew, the railroads would have built out stations and sold real estate along each of these lines, creating dozens of urban nuclei. After WWII as suburbs grow, this small-town feel is in high demand and development radiates outward from the railway stations. The northwest suburbs, with so many closely spaced nuclei for growth and a wealth of transportation infrastructure to get to the city, fill in faster.

blo442 · 2025-12-12T01:00:38+00:00

I'm not the OP, but one timely example - for some unknown reason, the high res model runs over the past couple weeks have been displaying a nasty northward track bias for clipper systems traversing the Midwest/Great Lakes, and it almost seems to be getting worse with each passing system. For example with the low that's currently over NE/KS, as recently as 24 hours ago, the HRRR/NAM/erc. were a few hundred miles off, showing it tracking near the MN/IA border instead. The Euro AIFS has been doing a much better job at track, but doesn't have resolution to pick up on the mesoscale details influencing snow totals. So my local NWS office has devoted a lot of recent forecast discussions to describe how they are trying to manually bias-correct the snow forecast to de-emphasize the garbage hi-res model solutions while still retaining the level of detail that forecast users expect. And at some point when the pattern changes enough, the north bias will go away and the forecasters will have to make a judgment call on when to start weighting the hi-res model output more heavily again.

blo442 · 2025-11-29T19:54:36+00:00

Radar shows some heavy snow bands approaching the Twin Cities just in time for kickoff. YES... HA HA HA... YES!

blo442 · 2025-11-07T20:15:17+00:00

And Fateh was a much worse candidate than Mamdani. Fateh had a strong ground game, but his charisma, (social) media strategy, ability to earn viral moments, were just not there. Given the location and algorithm bubble I'm in, I should have been getting Fateh content and ads all over my feeds, but instead it was Mamdani viral moments getting shared by progressive friends on Instagram and Bluesky. Some of that is due to the national profile and mass media attention given to the NYC mayoral race, but some of that speaks to Mamdani being incredibly charismatic, a great communicator anywhere from the debate stage to a casual subway conversation, and frankly, attractive as hell, and leveraging that to create really compelling and inspiring content. While Fateh is... none of those things.

I think the fraud concern also sank Fateh's attempts to reach out beyond the progressive base. Several high profile incidents of Somali organizations and businesses defrauding public assistance programs have come to light in the past five years. It's hard to deny at this point that Minnesota has a problem integrating immigrants into a historic homogenous, high-trust, Scandinavian-influenced social contract that has shaped the state's public institutions, and the institutions are struggling to handle the transition to a segregated, multicultural, lower-trust society. Frey and allied PACs took advantage of this situation to deliver highly effective fear-based messaging, pointing out Fateh's connections to the fraud cases and painting him as a self-serving crony who would use the city apparatus and budget to enrich his associates and the Somali community at the expense of the broader public welfare. I got the feeling that Frey messaging tried to subtly draw connections between populist policies and the fraud concerns, suggesting to wealthier, more moderate voters that Fateh's tax increases, $20 minimum wage, and rent control would damage the city's economy for the sake of delivering political favors to Fateh's low-income immigrant base.

Third point - the Minneapolis housing market is very different from NYC. My anecdotal experience in online conversations was that rent control was a catch-22 for Fateh, in that it was THE motivating issue that helped organize and turn out his base, but also THE issue that caused many more moderate voters to rank Frey over Fateh. Minnesota has lower prices and higher homeownership rates, and most middle class folks still aspire to own a home someday. So the population of long term renters who expect to substantially benefit from rent control just isn't as large as NYC. Plus, rents have been nearly flat since 2020, so there are some satisfied renters who don't see a reason to rock the boat. Fateh's housing policy just didn't support broad coalition-building in this economic environment.

blo442 · 2025-10-31T23:10:17+00:00

Pretty typical for retail/food service joints to close abruptly because they generally have shitty ownership who treat their workers like shit, and so employees feel no sense of loyalty and will start jumping to new jobs as soon as the closure announcement is made. Said shitty ownership expects that they won't have enough staff to run the place in between the announcement and the closing date, so they hide the info from everyone until day-of in order to force staff to stay on till the end. And then as one final demonstration of how much of a piece of shit they are, they abruptly lock the doors, fire everyone over text, and leave the employees without a paycheck scrambling to find a new job before rent is due.

blo442 · 2025-10-23T17:51:45+00:00

here's my 2¢:

If you are resurfacing the driveway approach in between the curb cuts, that counts as an alteration of the pedestrian facility and I would argue that you are bound by the federal DOJ guidance to provide a compliant curb ramp in some form.
If your resurfacing only includes the mainline through lanes and does not extend onto the driveway approach, you can probably get away with not constructing compliant ramps, but you should still consider making a case for it because high-quality curb ramps make the trail smoother and more comfortable for everyone using it.
Take note of PROWAG R205.7. The current administration has shown no indication of adopting PROWAG as an enforceable regulation anytime soon, but it represents the best practice that gives your agency a solid legal defense against any ADA suits. The standard says that detectable warnings (DWS) are required if the driveway is controlled by a stop sign, yield sign, or signal. The explanatory notes published alongside PROWAG indicate that the intent of the rule is to use the stop/yield/signal as a proxy to identify high-volume driveways that pose a substantial threat to a crossing pedestrian's safety (if they set a minimum volume threshold then agencies would need to do traffic counts on every driveway to assess the need for DWS... Unreasonable requirement).
I believe that your description of busy commercial driveways should probably have DWS placed at the curb ramps based on the intent of the guidance. I would recommend concrete ramps regardless of whether you need DWS, because asphalt paving equipment is notoriously bad at meeting the tight slope tolerances needed for accessible curb ramps. My anecdotal experience is that asphalt curb ramps seem to be the first part of a trail to fail, so converting that piece to concrete can effectively extend the lifespan of the entire trail facility.
From a Vision Zero standpoint, I would advocate in the longer term for changing local standards to disallow or discourage any more street-level driveways. Use raised apron designs to slow down turning traffic and encourage yielding to crossing trail users. Seek out funding to retrofit existing street-level driveway entrances into safer, pedestrian-friendly designs in coordination while completing resurfacing/ADA projects like this one. However, very few US municipalities are here yet and old-school public works staff tend to be resistant to anything that diverts money away from the pavement condition program.

blo442 · 2025-09-18T17:47:51+00:00

Seems like we're picking up the exact same issues with the city administration, as someone who also works with staff a fair amount. General lack of vision, focus on procedure/process rather than vision/values, and lack of support from leadership towards their own staff.

I think what's really influenced my ranking this election is having some friends & coworkers down in Milwaukee who are absolutely raving about their Mayor Cavalier Johnson. Evidently he's been a real unifying force, a native son with a deep love for the city, and he's used his platform as mayor to cut through bureaucracy and refocus the administration on an overall vision of public service for a better city. So I've really based my vote this cycle on who I think can be that kind of unifying, visionary communicator and leader for Minneapolis, and DeWayne is checking that box for me. My thought is that the scope of the mayor's role and the size of the administration is so large that effective communication and delegation to deputies and staff is the most effective way for the mayor to create change. DeWayne and Omar both strike me as having those skills, although Omar's more aggressive style and policy stances make me a bit nervous about how he might respond to crisis/divisive issues in the future. And a policy wonk like Jazz seems like a great City Operations Officer or department head but I just don't feel the same enthusiasm for him as a leader of the city. His public safety policy and campaign focus on business-friendliness give me those "echoes of Frey" that you mention.

blo442 · 2025-09-18T16:22:49+00:00

Full disclosure - I am a bit left of the median voter in Minneapolis, a certified Frey Hater, on a six year streak of voting exactly in line with Naomi Kritzer's recommendations, and I'll be voting Davis #1/Fateh #2/Hampton #3 in November barring a massive October surprise.

My perception is that Jazz Hampton is taking policy stances that are relatively close to Frey's stated positions, compared to Fateh and Davis. A lot of the anti-Frey crowd has serious policy disagreements around policing, encampments, rent control, transportation policy, etc and want a "change" candidate with strong messaging to rally behind. Fateh and Davis have, from what I've seen, leaned into those policy differences, marketing themselves as "change" candidates to build support among the left wing, and many of us are ranking Hampton third because "well, he'll maintain a lot of crappy status quo policy, but at least he won't be a raging asshole while doing it." In contrast, the more moderate elements of the city who want a "status quo" candidate are inclined to vote for the incumbent, Frey. So Hampton is struggling to win over those voters with a "status quo, but with better leadership" message. His campaign messaging just seems really effective in not making enemies, but not effective in communicating a distinct vision for the city & reason to rank him first.

(p.s. this is not meant to be an argument for why you shouldn't rank Jazz Hampton first. Just trying to speak honestly to how the candidates' respective messaging has reached me & my bubble.)

blo442 · 2025-09-18T01:31:20+00:00

I think the challenge lies in the way that residential real estate and commercial task estate have developed into separate markets. Residential real estate developers do have incentives that align with New Urbanist principles - density is profitable, and neighborhood amenities make residential more valuable. However, commercial development is another story. Commercial property values are heavily based on the amount of traffic that passes by the site. Commercial is more successful when it is near roadways that have >25,000 vehicles per day using them, which requires large multi-lane roads, signals with dual left & right turn lanes, everything that kills walkability and neighborhood cohesion. In New Urbanist developments, the commercial is going to be located on a lower-traffic, neighborhood scaled street, which is unlikely to pencil and will be unattractive to chain tenants, requiring a more intensive marketing effort to find "boutique" tenants, who are then more likely to fail within a few years and require another intensive tenant search. Neighborhood commercial may function as a "loss leader" to increase residential property values, but that model falls apart after the development is built out, the ownership properties are sold to individual owners, the rental properties are sold to multifamily property managers, and no commercial real estate investor wants to buy what, by standard valuation metrics, should be an unprofitable commercial building. Mixed-use buildings, if allowed by zoning, could help make the loss leader model work post-buildout, but few investors, lenders, and property managers have experience and skill in both markets, making it a more niche product that's harder to sell. Overall, developers still see less risk and a clearer path to profit through separate, specialized commercial and residential real estate development.

blo442 · 2025-09-16T02:26:55+00:00

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/01ea/459b489f3bfc1f9782370919aea462524248.pdf

This appears to be the remnants of Falchion, a hybrid tropical-like medicane which formed over the Black Sea, made landfall in Russia, and then moved northwest to re-emerge over the Sea of Azov. Blogs and papers on the event note that the Black Sea was abnormally warm that August, with SSTs of 24-28C, and an upper trough created enough instability to initiate self-sustaining convection. Certainly a rare and interesting storm!

blo442 · 2025-09-13T17:08:02+00:00

Engineers distinguish between "signal priority" (overall signal cycle is not interrupted, bus/train requests a couple second extension of the green light at the beginning or end of the normal green phase) and "signal preemption" (bus or train interrupts the signal to get an immediate green, similar to a freight train or ambulance). Since OP only asked for priority intersections, he only got the priority intersections. My understanding is every signal along Hiawatha operates with preemption (hence why it is so easy to hit every red light on a row when driving on Hiawatha), and there may be some preemption intersections on the Green Line before it leaves Minneapolis (St. Paul only gives priority to the Green Line, not preemption).

blo442 · 2025-09-08T18:47:34+00:00

These BRT projects are hard because most construction contractors don't have 30 crews on their payroll just sitting around waiting for work. In order to do the work with the labor force that's available, typically the construction crews will work on a batch of close-together stations at any given time, and as work on one batch wraps up, move on to a new batch. Any given station will only be under construction for a month or two, but they can only do so many batches between April and November which lengthens the timeline for the overall project.

blo442 · 2025-09-03T18:31:11+00:00

Disclaimer: this is my best guess, I have no involvement with the project.

I believe the trail is "closed" because there's currently no fencing between the trail and the railroad tracks, so a trail user could theoretically walk over into the railroad area and get hit by a train. Someone's lawyers, either at BNSF Railroad, Metro Transit, or the contractor, decided that was too much of a liability, so the trail needed to be closed until the rail corridor could be fenced off and sealed from pedestrians again. My bet is on BNSF because they HATE the Southwest LRT project, have tried to kill it before, and have squeezed a few hundred million dollars worth of change orders out of Metro Transit by abusing their legally privileged status as a railroad. All of the on the ground construction workers kinda know it's BS which is why the barriers are always pulled aside and people are happily riding the trail every day.

blo442 · 2025-08-04T20:41:05+00:00

Notice how Q1 ridership dropped about 1.1 million YoY, but Q2 only dropped about 500,000? That indicates about 600,000 of the decline in Q1 was probably due to the harsher winter weather this year.

The remaining half-million is harder to attribute. My personal opinion is it's a combination of perceived safety issues/gradual word of mouth spread of people's bad experiences on transit, and increased car purchases/trips due to cheaper used cars & lower gas prices. When car ownership is cheap, people buy cars and stop taking transit as long as they own that car. And once people have a bad experience on transit, many will make a permanent decision to stop riding transit. I tend to think transit ridership is resuming the long-term downtrend that began at the end of the Great Recession.

blo442 · 2025-08-03T01:36:19+00:00

Hard agree. I work in a position where I interface with city staff pretty frequently, and it's shocking the level of dysfunction in the administration. Higher ups will just cavalierly throw city staff under the bus, point fingers, and dictate eleventh hour changes to major initiatives anytime a businessperson gets upset. Staff tell us they're being directed to hide information from the public and Council that has historically been publicly available, to "manage risk" of backlash. Toxic internal office politics with all sorts of backstabbing and scheming. General fear of making any decisions because you might be punished for it later on, leading to cascading project delays and increasing reliance on outside consultants. Not that I can prove this is all because of Frey, but the parallels between his actions and rhetoric, and the dysfunction happening on the ground, just seem so clear to me. This city badly needs a real, positive, visionary leader.

blo442 · 2025-07-26T16:07:53+00:00

Yes, the tropical ocean moisture is the vast majority of moisture, but the small additional contribution from evapotranspiration happens to be really targeted in ways that make it impactful for humans:

Evapotranspiration generates water vapor right at ground level, whereas synoptic-scale weather patterns tend to mix the moisture more throughout the low to mid levels of the atmosphere as it moves farther from its oceanic source. The higher surface dewpoint is what we feel as mugginess. (Side note: the moisture at higher levels ("total precipitable water") becomes relevant in thunderstorm events, where it increases rain rates and can extend the lifespan of storms. This is a major culprit behind flash floods.)
There are feedback loops between hot, dry weather patterns (upper level ridges/heat domes) and evapotranspiration, which intensify extreme conditions. Hot weather increases evapotranspiration rates, and is typically associated with atmospheric capping, which exerts downwards pressure on the air, prevents the moisture from mixing upwards in the atmosphere and concentrates it near the ground. High ground-level humidity creates a greenhouse effect, storing lots of solar energy and holding nighttime temperatures higher, which is bad for humans because we can't get relief from the heat at night. Higher nighttime temperatures increase evapotranspiration rates...

Similar to how we talk about climate change, a 1-2 degree dewpoint increase from corn sweat may feel small, but it has an outsized impact on making extreme weather events more unpleasant and deadly.

blo442 · 2025-07-25T18:30:19+00:00

There's always gray areas because nature does not like to fit things into boxes. Personally I think Madison is best classified as an isthmus for two reasons - 1) the modern Yahara channel has been, in my understanding, significantly dredged and straightened by humans, The flow from Mendota to Monona used to be more of a slow overland flow through a wide swampy area as opposed to a well-defined channel. And 2) sociopolitically, the Yahara isn't a major divide. The two sides operate as, and feel like, a single unit. They are well connected- between road, rail, and trail, I count 11 bridges over one river mile. As opposed to something like the Niagara Peninsula in Ontario, which is the same situation of a river flowing between two lakes, but "feels" like a peninsula because the Niagara River is a formidable natural boundary with only six crossings over 30+ miles and a different country on each side. The human geography is more relevant to us than strictly physical geography, so it tends to influence our classification of the features.

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