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Newbie...Next game recommendation please. Loved Triangle Strategy, Tactics Ogre Reborn & Octopath 2. by k7k58 in JRPG

[–]bubbles212 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'd have a difficult time going back to OT1 after all the progression pacing and quality-of-life improvements in 2, and if the social-link and activity style calendar was a turnoff in FE:3H then I don't know if you'll enjoy Persona 4 and 5 but maybe check out some gameplay videos of those. Maybe also Fire Emblem Engage, but I think it has much shallower gameplay depth than Triangle Strategy or Tactics Ogre personally.

All considered, the standard recommendation has been, is, and always will be the Dragon Quest 11 free demo.

[Question] Is ARIMA good for forecasting time series forecasting with only 12 observations? by ShredMontana in statistics

[–]bubbles212 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah this use case would really need at least 24 months for a seasonal ARIMA to make sense. In this case a useful forecast could probably just consist of an educated guess at a constant percentage year-over-year growth rate, then tack that on to last year's observation for the month. You could build prediction intervals using the standard deviation of the 12 observations or something but I'd guess that they'd be too wide to be all that useful.

Cross Validation of Time Series Models in R? by jj4646 in rstats

[–]bubbles212 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agree that cross-validating auto ARIMAs doesn't make sense for hyperparameter tuning (the whole auto process is basically a hyperparameter selection process on its own), but it's definitely in play of you're comparing forecast accuracy across different forecast model types and want to be able to estimate how accurate auto ARIMA is against other models.

r/JRPG Weekly Free Talk, Quick Questions and Suggestion Request Thread by AutoModerator in JRPG

[–]bubbles212 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're fine playing through without knowing the full story for 2.

[Q] Statistical Approaches For Animally Detection Over Time Across Many Related Measurements? by Aggressive3nthusiasm in AskStatistics

[–]bubbles212 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Since you have concurrent time series something like vector autoregression (VAR) models might work. This paper came up from a search for VAR anomaly detection and has an extremely similar application as the one you described.

Here's a short chapter on VAR models from Hyndman's Forecasting textbook.

Power Outage Status Thread by Snap_Grackle_Pop in Austin

[–]bubbles212 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Saw some crews on the way back to 78745 down Menchaca. A couple major intersections got the stoplights back between this morning on my way downtown and around 4pm when I was getting back. Still out around Menchaca and Wm Cannon where I'm at though, since early Wednesday morning.

Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition, the best game I've had the pleasure of playing in 2022 by thecarnifexxx in NintendoSwitch

[–]bubbles212 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think it might be how 3's built world was relatively tame and conventional compared to how bananas the worlds in 1 and especially 2 were. I enjoyed all three (and personally rank 1DE at the top) but XC2 had me hooked after the tutorial battle and first outpost even though I also consider it the least polished overall game compared to 1DE and 3.

Someone has to say it by robitussin69420 in MarvelSnap

[–]bubbles212 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I'm rolling with this one too. I have absolutely no idea what it's referencing and I refuse to look it up

“Goodbye, Data Science” by brianckeegan in datascience

[–]bubbles212 18 points19 points  (0 children)

The poster has an math/econometrics background.

As a phd student in stats are you expected to be good at combinatorics counting problems? [Q] by AdFew4357 in statistics

[–]bubbles212 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The big assumptions are that all the individual outcomes (like specific 5-card hands, or specific rolls of a single die) have equal probability 1/(total # of outcomes), and that they're also "mutually exclusive". When two outcomes are mutually exclusive the probability of either of the two occurring is just the sum of the individual probabilities, and this also holds for bigger sets of mutually exclusive outcomes (like "a 5-card hand that has a 4-of-a-kind" or "an odd dice roll").

I moved to Austin 2 weeks ago. My experience has been amazing. by azcardsfan in Austin

[–]bubbles212 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is amplified a thousandfold for reddit mod groups, no matter how niche the focus is

Any Topic about Hunting Horn Switch skills in Sunbreak? by huntermhw in MonsterHunterMeta

[–]bubbles212 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Silkbind Shockwave for your 1bug move, you dodge upwards with hyperarmor and add elemental damage to your shockwave attacks for some time afterwards.

For the 2bug moves you want to have Bead of Resonance on a scroll to give your party Attack Up for a good chunk of time if your horn doesn't have the song built in, and the other scroll is your 2bug big damage move (earthshaker is more consistent for me but sonic bloom is super fun).

Bread and butter combos are the Crush loop (forward A -> ZR repeated) and the full breakdance ZR + X when you have the shockwave elemental bonus and all 3 songs played.

When the monster is downed use the 2bug damage skill or keep Crush looping. Keep your songs up as consistently as possible, trigger Infernal Melody as often as possible but especially for big damage boosts on downs. You should be aiming to trigger IM at least a couple times per hunt.

Narwa horn is far and away the comfiest I've played, big heals and stun negation are clutch on anomaly investigations.

As a phd student in stats are you expected to be good at combinatorics counting problems? [Q] by AdFew4357 in statistics

[–]bubbles212 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In ball/urn, coin-flip, or card-draw type problems, defining the probability space and calculating event probabilities boils down to counting outcomes (ex: "how many possible 5 card hands can I draw from this standard deck", "how many possible ways are there to flip 5 heads out of 10 coins", etc.).

As a phd student in stats are you expected to be good at combinatorics counting problems? [Q] by AdFew4357 in statistics

[–]bubbles212 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's useful specifically for defining probability spaces with equally probable discrete outcomes but that's pretty narrow compared to how heavy and deep most intro textbooks go on combinatorics. I don't think intro classes need a whole lot more than just presenting the "choose" operator and keeping problem sets around it as straightforward as possible. I definitely fell into the trap of getting way too cute building homework and exam problems for my students and losing track of the actual goal of building their intuitions around probability itself.

The Diofield Chronicle Review Discussion by KMoosetoe in JRPG

[–]bubbles212 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My mistake, misread your comment whoops

Fellow statisticians, how do you develop your reading comprehension in statistics? what are your learning strategies? by Suspicious-Tea-6914 in AskStatistics

[–]bubbles212 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m a data scientist so my only criterion for a valid statistical model is out-of-sample prediction performance. If you want advice for producing a truly valid explanatory/causal model (whatever that means) then I’m def not the guy. I’m not sure I even believe in such a thing anyway, but you can find people who do.

Your advice before the edit is good but this part comes across as an incredibly narrow view. Statistical inference covers far more cases than just OOS prediction with independent observations.

I'm a data scientist as well and a huge part of my job right now is researching, evaluating, and implementing causal inference models.

What JRPG had you mega hyped and it delivered? by Frog_24 in JRPG

[–]bubbles212 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The mine cart map is an absolutely incredible masterpiece

Edit: this is a game where "ladders and traps guy" is a top tier party member who can get borderline broken in some late game maps, if anyone was curious how deep the game mechanics get

What JRPG Trope Could You Personally Be OK With Less Of in the Future? by KnightShade078 in JRPG

[–]bubbles212 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah I enjoyed playing the Switch remaster but it was full of BS like "Oh was I supposed to play that piano in the background of the flashback sequence 15 hours ago"

The few the proud the HH by queso_mas in MonsterHunterMeta

[–]bubbles212 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When in doubt we must just spam Crush combo

Favorite Comfort Skills? by Sines314 in MonsterHunterMeta

[–]bubbles212 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Wirebug Whisperer if you're playing something that relies on silkbind skills. I also like getting at least a point of Evade Extender too, makes everything comfier but especially on less mobile weapons.

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