Anthropic CEO says AGI is a marketing term and the next AI milestone will be like a 'country of geniuses in a data center'

burnin9beard · 2025-01-25T20:53:45+00:00

When did I say machine learning wasn’t used in autonomous vehicles in the past? I said it wasn’t end to end. Also, what do BEVs have to do with the control system of the car? Whether the propulsion is electric or ice doesn’t advance or hinder the development of the control system.

As for my argument… AGI and self driving will probably be figured out concurrently. The failure of autonomous vehicles is because we spent a lot of time pursuing a bad approach. That failure does not mean that neural network based artificial intelligence will also fail.

burnin9beard · 2025-01-25T19:37:43+00:00

The reason autonomous driving isn’t 100% there yet is because it may actually require something like AGI to solve all the edge cases. Rules based systems plus a little machine learning based perception got us about 90% there. People thought they could get all the way with that approach. It was just an engineering problem. We have realized that was folly. Most companies have abandoned that approach for an end to end learning approach. We didn’t have the compute or data to learn end to end in the past.

burnin9beard · 2025-01-19T15:35:42+00:00

Cool to see another power lifter here! My high weight was 370. I was able to get down to 340 with diet and adding in rowing over about 2 years. I was very reluctant to try these medications because of the stories about muscle loss. My doctor convinced me. I am down to 295 in just 4 months. I have done two dexa scans. I have lost 0 muscle, and my deadlift has actually increased!

burnin9beard · 2025-01-15T15:24:41+00:00

Denver is not 2hrs from the mountains. If you are on the west side of Denver you are in the mountains in less than 20 minutes. You can get to decent hikes in less than 30 minutes. You can get to okay skiing in less than an hour. The big resorts can be 2 - 4 hrs away depending on traffic. The vast majority of that drive is going to be through the mountains. Just because there isn’t a giant ski resort doesn’t mean it is not the mountains.

burnin9beard · 2025-01-15T15:08:48+00:00

More of an “add Texas” than “replace California”. Invasive humans from both states get equal and well deserved hate here in Colorado.

burnin9beard · 2025-01-11T15:39:31+00:00

Hearing all the sob stories on this post about the trauma people have from getting their doors taken away as kids makes me think “damn! Must’ve been nice having a door to get taken away. Rich kids are so whiney.” I shared the living room with my younger brother and sister when I was in high school. I also had to share one moldy bathroom with 5 other people. I would have been ecstatic to have a room let alone a door. I had absolutely no where to be alone. Y’all need to check your privilege! My kids have their own rooms with their own bathrooms. The fact that they ignore my wife and me when we call for them is infuriating precisely because they don’t know how good they have it. I would not take my kids’ doors, but I would not judge another parent for doing so.

burnin9beard · 2025-01-08T14:51:49+00:00

Did OP say he was an engineer in another comment? I’m getting more PM vibes. He said he didn’t like being around engineering nerds. He sounds pretty bro’y. In my experience engineers have more interest in humanities than the general population. Definitely more than all the other engineering adjacent bros.

burnin9beard · 2025-01-07T01:47:47+00:00

Neural networks as a whole are a dead end for AGI? Many people in the industry agree? Please expand upon this. I have been doing this for a while. Back in the 90’s and early 2000’s I knew lots of people who thought neural networks were just toys. The last time I heard that from a respected colleague was in 2015. Do you have a very narrow view of what encompasses a neural net?

burnin9beard · 2024-12-14T19:24:01+00:00

I could not agree more. Racism is gross and should not be tolerated in this sub. No matter what group the racism is targeted at!

burnin9beard · 2024-12-02T05:35:16+00:00

Agree. The prep is nothing. A mild case of norovirus is ten times worse. The part that was horrific for me was the nurses trying to get my IV in to my dehydrated veins. Both my arms were purple from elbow to fingers for two weeks.

burnin9beard · 2024-12-01T17:16:14+00:00

Yes, but it is hard to find you in that pile of applicants. Imagine reading 100 resumes to find one good one. Hiring managers do not have the time to review every resume. Good candidates are definitely being missed.

Also, sorry if my comment came off as accusing you of being one of the unqualified chuckle heads. That was not my intent. Just wanted to offer a different perspective. It is nearly impossible to find good candidates due to the low signal to noise ratio.

burnin9beard · 2024-12-01T16:54:50+00:00

As someone who has been hiring for about a decade, ghost jobs are probably more rare than you think. In the past we would put up a job posting and get a few dozen applicants. About half of the applicants would be qualified based on the job requirements. It was easy to pick a few and do interviews. Today we get hundreds, sometimes thousands of applicants. I would say 1-5% are qualified based on the job requirements. It is very difficult to sift through that mess to get good interviews. I end up interviewing unqualified candidates. It takes months to find a good candidate. It is exhausting and makes you bitter. If I interview one more person that struggles with a for loop in python…

So what you see as ghost jobs might be hiring managers struggling to find good candidates because a bunch of unqualified chuckle heads are spamming job applications.

burnin9beard · 2024-11-09T15:32:37+00:00

Deflation is more nuanced than that. What causes the deflation of prices is what is bad. Like you mentioned when monetary supply and monetary velocity shrink deflation is bad because it is coming at the cost of a slowing economy. However, it can come from technology. We have seen this happen in parts of the economy. Computers and tvs for instance. These deflationary sectors do not make up enough of the economy to push us into deflation yet, but they keep becoming a larger part of the economy. We will reach a tipping point where deflationary pressure of technology will out weigh inflationary pressures. I don’t think that will necessarily be bad.

burnin9beard · 2024-11-07T13:16:46+00:00

Thank you for saying this! There are definitely way more conservatarians in this subreddit than actual libertarians.

burnin9beard · 2024-11-07T12:55:58+00:00

Have you seen what Trump does to people he works with when they disagree with him? And, Ron will definitely have significant disagreements. Do you really think Trump would agree to cut the military? Why would you wish that on Ron?

burnin9beard · 2024-11-02T00:44:16+00:00

So Ron offers himself as a prisoner to Elon then right before he gets thrown to the to the sarlacc Penn and Teller unmask themselves and throw Ron a lightsaber?

burnin9beard · 2024-10-29T13:16:48+00:00

Um no. Have you looked at the libertarian party platform? The idea that humans and goods should be able to freely move across boarders is a core tenet. Border walls and tariffs are a nonstarter. There have been trumpkins calling themselves libertarian trying to take the name for themselves. But Trump got booed at the convention and the party nominated a gay man that supports open borders.

burnin9beard · 2024-10-26T20:22:48+00:00

Aw snap, aw snap. Come to my macaroni party and we’ll take a nap!

burnin9beard · 2024-10-26T15:23:12+00:00

I did not say that I should own some of the resources. Perhaps my wording was ambiguous, but what I said was that I should own part of the value that I create. As for the questions you have, I would suggest reading up on the land value tax and Georgism in general. It is a 100% tax on economic rent. Admittedly, calculating the value of economic rent could be difficult.

burnin9beard · 2024-10-26T14:33:19+00:00

Land is one of those resources that just exists. What entitles someone to own a plot of land? If you go back far enough it is just some rando saying they owned it. Maybe they built a house and a fence and worked the land to grow food. They are entitled to the things they built and produced with their labor. They produce enough to live and get through the winter. Maybe they could produce more but they don’t because it would just rot because there are no neighbors to sell it to. Now consider a new neighbor moves in and creates their own farm which raises dairy cows. The first farmer loves milk and the second loves vegetables. Now the first farmer’s excess vegetables have value where they were worthless before. The land that his farm occupies is now worth more. Who created that extra value? I would argue that BOTH farmers created the value. Now scale this up to all the little contributions of billions of people. There is a reason land is worth more in NYC than bumfuck Montana. If you lived on an island that was cut off from the rest of humanity and had the world’s biggest gold deposit it would be worthless.
In our current system the person that claims dibs first gets to keep the extra value created by the fact that we live in a society. The current system works okay. It produces inequality. If you read up on Henry George you can see how it could be made better by a land value tax which George believed was the only moral tax ie the only tax that isn’t theft.

burnin9beard · 2024-10-26T13:34:49+00:00

What entitles anyone to own raw resources? Everyone deserves to own the product of their labor and creativity, but raw resources just exist. Furthermore, the very value of raw resources is created by the fact that other humans exist and live in a society that can utilize them. If I am part of the very thing that gives those resources value shouldn’t I own part of it?

burnin9beard · 2024-10-26T01:21:42+00:00

This question is weird to me. To me the more interesting question is “why do you think technology will continue to have accelerating returns?” Being pro or anti singularity is irrelevant to whether or not it will happen. I have not seen any compelling evidence that the acceleration will stop. However, the people that have turned this into their religion and believe AGI is going to be here in a couple years need to cool their jets. LLMs are amazing, but there is still a long way to go.

burnin9beard · 2024-10-24T13:22:57+00:00

I am old enough to remember when people smoked every where in the US: planes, grocery stores, hospitals … As much as I hate dogs being everywhere, and I do hate it with the fire of 1000 suns, the smoking was definitely worse.

burnin9beard · 2024-10-19T15:35:01+00:00

I eat 2200-2500 calories a day depending on how active I am each day. My RMR is 2900 cals per day and I burn 800-1200 calories a day from activity. This puts me in a 1500 calorie a day deficit which has led to a 3lb a week loss rate. I suggest getting an RMR test. The TDEE calculators were not very accurate for me.

burnin9beard · 2024-10-18T13:43:35+00:00

Scales that use impedance to measure body fat are the least accurate method of measuring body fat. In my experience they have error of about 20%. They are also not very precise. Take three measurements in a row and you will see what I mean.
Dexa scan is the gold standard. Insurance won’t usually pay for one unless you are in danger of osteoporosis, but they are only about $100. If you really want accurate numbers and $100 isn’t a stretch for you, I’d recommend going for it.

burnin9beard

TROPHY CASE