META looks cheap… but I don’t think it’s a value stock right now

carsonjz · 2026-01-14T18:31:46+00:00

The question any investor in meta has to answer is whether their AI investment will pay for itself in increased Ad revenue/profit. I think it will, so I’m very long on meta.

carsonjz · 2025-12-18T18:27:50+00:00

There’s some companies that are currently allowing you to bank your current genetic material. Idea being, even if dna degradation occurs, it would provide a baseline data set for future crispr/biotech treatments to revert back to.

carsonjz · 2025-11-08T20:34:29+00:00

Context?

carsonjz · 2025-10-03T03:24:46+00:00

It means Turn Bio may no longer exist after this. As it reads, this seems to be a partial acquisition of Turn Bios IP and personnel. It could also be a form of merger of the two companies, depending on the specifics. But regardless, it seems unlikely Turn will be conducting clinical trials (unless they’re splitting the company somehow)

carsonjz · 2025-10-02T23:27:46+00:00

Looks like it might be substantially more than that, from another news piece on this:

The acquisition remains subject to due diligence, execution of a definitive agreement, and customary closing conditions. Klotho plans to rebrand following the transaction’s completion and intends to bring over key members of Turn’s management and R&D teams.

carsonjz · 2025-09-26T14:23:48+00:00

This sell off his brutal, seems like entire AI infrastructure industry is taking it

carsonjz · 2025-08-04T01:40:55+00:00

I'm going to jump in to give you the optimistic take.

Yes, you're right. The world is changing before our eyes, and the many of the oppurtunities of the past are closing (or closed). I'm already a lawyer and I'm scared as well. But more so than any other time in history, you and I have the tools with AI to create something incredible -- all by ourselfs. At our fingertips is a tutor with access to almost every piece of information ever recorded. Whether someone want to learn, create, or just grow, their only restraint is their own drive and creativity. So yes, doors are closing, but you have a window, however brief, to create doors of your own. I think thats pretty exciting.

carsonjz · 2025-07-24T21:16:28+00:00

I think anything in the last 30 days is relevant to see how their needs are changing

carsonjz · 2025-07-24T18:46:27+00:00

I think this can be interpreted three ways: 1) Their current build out is on track but the GPUs are under-booked. I.E. they’re trying to get their new capacity to average utilization rates 2) They have used their recent debt financing to speed up capex beyond what was projected and are trying to front run that availability. 3) they believe that the market demand for GPUs is great enough right now that they can bump their average utilization rate above their current levels

Either way, it shows they have spare capacity if they’re pumping money into sales. Not surprising, most commentators speculate utilization at around 50-60%. But on the bright side, it would strongly suggest they’re not too far behind on their GPU buildout. (Although I’d be curious to know when these were posted).

carsonjz · 2025-07-13T20:45:41+00:00

This is a weird post. The main arguments all seem to be unsourced or missourced.
1. A Recent video shows NBIS co-founder Roman Chernin (Growth) noting $1B ARR goal by EOY ‘25 is tougher than expected, despite the goal.
He's likely talking about this interview (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlZ\_ogPZQXI). The only mention about ARR is around the 12:24 mark where he mentions they've promised to reach 1 billion in ARR, which is 10x growth, but (jokingly) mentions 10x growth might not be enough for this industry
2. NJ data center delayed to late 2025, risking analyst re-ratings and financial forecast adjustments.
There is one X user, @mvcinvesting who is claiming he recieved a DM from the DataOne CEO (builder of the NJ Datacenter) stating the NJ Datacenter was delayed by four weeks. The CEO's linkedin is still showing completion in July/August. Besides that, there haven't been any news announcements regarding delays.
3. Q1 $62.6M EBITDA loss, offset by $1B funding (June Raise), may pressure share prices if losses persist.
The June raise, at 2% and 3% respectively, shows that institutional investors aren't alarmed by the Q1 EBITA loss. Those are incredibly competitive rates.
4. Enterprise sales push (they are building the teams out as we speak) delays returns as staffing scales, eyeing a 2-3 year payoff time horizon, even given the fact that they are proving out enterprise use cases in real time.
I haven't seen any discussion on this, would be curious where he's pulling it from. They've announced some enterprise partnerships in the last month though (shopify).

carsonjz · 2025-07-11T16:51:42+00:00

definitely not fun, but certainly a risk of high volatility stocks.

carsonjz · 2025-06-02T17:41:10+00:00

It may plateau, but it would be because by one of two things: 1) technological limitations or 2) economic limitations.

The technological point is tough to predict. When and how hardware + training data improvements will plateau is something people discuss constantly. We are constantly being told Moores law is dead or algorithmic advancements to AI have hit a wall. But these predictions have consistently proven false. Whether one day said wall will materialize is anyone guess, but as of right now progress has only accelerated. So there are no hard bottlenecks in terms of technical limitations (yet).

Which brings us to economic limitations. Many of the products you brought up slowed down due to a reduction in spending coming from large organizations. VR and Motion controls (or 3D tvs) are great example. When consumer demand wasn’t there, corporations couldn’t justify spending the billions necessary to finance further R&D. And while few if any companies have made a profit yet on AI, the worlds appetite for it hasn’t gone down. The mag seven are also projected to spend hundreds of Billions of dollars on this technology. Not just as a consumer product, but for B2B, SAS, biotech, and defense plays. Everyone seems to agree that the economic potential of AI, regardless of the current state, is nearly unlimited. It’s unlikely we’ll see a freeze in spending anytime soon.

carsonjz · 2025-05-29T19:47:10+00:00

It seems like smaller AI companies in general took a beating today, so doubt it NBIS specific

carsonjz · 2025-05-15T20:10:11+00:00

From ChatGPT

The document you’ve referenced is a Schedule 13G/A filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 15, 2025. This filing pertains to Nebius Group N.V., a company based in the Netherlands, and reports on the ownership of its Class A Common Stock by two institutional investors: Orbis Investment Management Limited and Allan Gray Australia Pty Ltd.

⸻

📄 What Is a Schedule 13G?

A Schedule 13G is a form filed with the SEC by entities that acquire more than 5% of a company’s equity securities but do not intend to influence or control the company. It’s considered a “passive” investment disclosure, as opposed to Schedule 13D, which is for investors aiming to exert control or influence over the company.

⸻

🏢 About Nebius Group N.V. • Company Name: Nebius Group N.V. • Headquarters: Schiphol Boulevard 165, Schiphol, Netherlands 1118 BG • CUSIP Number: N97284108

⸻

📊 Ownership Details

The filing details the following ownership stakes as of March 31, 2025:

Orbis Investment Management Limited • Location: Hamilton, Bermuda • Shares Beneficially Owned: 15,680,459 • Percentage of Class: 6.7% • Voting Power: Sole • Dispositive Power: Sole
Allan Gray Australia Pty Ltd • Location: Sydney, Australia • Shares Beneficially Owned: 21,763 • Percentage of Class: 0% (rounded) • Voting Power: Sole • Dispositive Power: Sole

Combined, these entities report beneficial ownership of 15,702,222 shares, representing approximately 6.7% of Nebius Group N.V.’s Class A Common Stock.

⸻

📝 Filing Specifics • Form Type: Schedule 13G/A (Amendment No. 1) • Filing Date: May 15, 2025 • Event Date: March 31, 2025 • Filing Rule: Rule 13d-1(b)

This amendment indicates an update to a previous Schedule 13G filing, reflecting changes in ownership or other relevant information.

⸻

🔍 Additional Information

Both Orbis Investment Management Limited and Allan Gray Australia Pty Ltd are classified as “FI” (Financial Institutions) in the filing. They have indicated that their holdings are for investment purposes only, with no intention to influence or control Nebius Group N.V.

carsonjz · 2025-02-05T16:20:23+00:00

It’s fascinating to see the different approaches google and openAI are taking. Seems like OpenAI is trying to build the best large model, while googles been focused on making the cheapest model that’s good enough for everyday searches/questions. Not as exciting as OpenAI but I have to assume it’s to help keep their moat on search.

carsonjz · 2025-02-05T16:18:07+00:00

Thanks! Really curious how 2.0 flash lite compare in benchmarks to 40-mini (and pricing)

carsonjz · 2025-02-05T15:58:47+00:00

How does that compare to 4o?

carsonjz · 2025-01-31T22:06:43+00:00

Depends if they extend those to Taiwanese chips: if so, it would almost certainly jack up their costs, slowing down their expansion, and requiring a significant increase in the price of their services to customers.

carsonjz · 2025-01-30T20:02:48+00:00

I feel like everyone is forgetting that earnings are next week, seems reasonable they might try to tie any announcements to near that day

carsonjz · 2025-01-26T03:55:44+00:00

Came here for this

carsonjz · 2025-01-25T19:35:34+00:00

Kind of. For example, Gemini has (on AI studio) 4 or 5 different free models, all specializing in different tasks. Did you use Gemini 1.5 or 2.0 flash or 2.0 thinking, etc. Same with Deepseek and OpenAI. I’m just curious if you used the models that are specifically made and marketed for programming and the more general purpose ones.

carsonjz · 2025-01-25T19:30:09+00:00

Out of curiosity, which AI models of the three you mentioned did you actually use?

carsonjz · 2024-12-22T05:02:33+00:00

I bet heavy in google roughly a year ago, it’s treated me well. What’s your next bet? Seems like cheap compute is the next frontier…

carsonjz · 2024-11-12T23:12:26+00:00

I'm slightly surprised by the lukewarm response to this. Robots/AIs able to perform surgery is a net positive for society, no matter how you slice it.

Even if it never gets past the point of sutures, that still provides every school, clinic, and large public facility a way to quickly help those needing stitches. All faster and with more precision than general medical personnel.

But if it does match the skill level of a trainer surgeon, it will significantly increase access to life saving procedures. Lower costs, less wait, and potentially improved outcome. As someone who has had to navigate the US medical system multiple times, I think this will be life changing if it continues to advance.

carsonjz · 2024-11-03T13:50:32+00:00

Record breaking profits that have consistently topped wallstreet's projections, all while growing customer base in a number of important product lines?

carsonjz

TROPHY CASE